Angeles Analysis – Game 4

In the regular season, the LA Kings carried a +16 goal differential during the third period. Eighth-best mark in the NHL. In four postseason games, the number is -6.

The Kings have led in the third period in all four games, including by multiple goals in three of the four games. That much is good. It’s what’s happened next that wound up not costing the Kings in Game 1 but saw Edmonton skate to comeback victories in Games 3 and 4 to even the series at two wins apiece. So, regardless of what you feel the reasoning behind it is, we all know that has to change in order for the Kings to win this series and it’s what happened in the third periods of those two games that saw both results swing in the direction of the Oilers.

Game 4 certainly feels like it would hurt more. Warren Foegele said they all hurt, which is true, understanding the importance of each game during the playoffs. But a 3-1 lead is one that the Kings know they have to find a way to close out, as Phillip Danault said after the game. I thought the Kings played substantially better in Game 4 than in Game 3, which makes it all the tougher. Game flow, looking bigger picture, the Kings could be, maybe even should be, closer to a sweep than to tied. The first 40 minutes of Game 4, in my opinion, were close to the best 40 minutes I’ve seen the Kings play in that building over the last four years. A missed opportunity?

“Little bit……little bit.”

On TNT last night, after the game, Edmonton forward Leon Draisaitl said that the Kings “always sit back from minute one.” I’m not sure you can look at last night’s game and say that’s true. For 40 minutes, the Kings played one of the fastest hockey games I’ve seen them play this season. And within that game they were the team dictating the play. It was exciting to watch because it was the team we know the Kings can be. The team that’s controlled so much of this series.

Unfortunately, all of those feel good narratives remain in the the first 40 minutes, because the third period saw that game flow change. Jim Hiller has repeatedly pointed to moments in these games, bounces in these games, which would have sent them the other way, as opposed to dissecting the team’s play leading up to those moments.

If you take last night, I understand that he’s right. If Kevin Fiala’s terrific look goes post and in, versus post and out, if the Kings pick the empty net from distance, or clear the zone defensively with 30 seconds left, we’re talking about a 3-1 series lead heading back to Los Angeles, no harm no foul.

But you also have to look at why those plays are so amplified and that’s when you look at what preceded them. Maybe those moments aren’t so important in the game if preceding events unfold differently. You know what I mean? I know that Quinton Byfield would more than own not clearing the zone before the game-tying goal. And yeah, that play might have hurt, but the game shouldn’t have hinged upon one play, when you factor in how well the Kings played for long stretches last night. It certainly doesn’t all fall on an emerging player who hadn’t put a foot wrong in months. It’s bigger.

The notion of “sitting back” can be voluntary or it can be involuntary. Strategy or human nature. There’s not a ton offered as to what has happened in those moments. Most players stopped short of saying they sat back or played too passively in the third period of Game 3, though Foegele said he felt the group attacked more in Game 4 than in Game 3. Danault hinted at the notion of long stretches of defending as well and how it becomes harder to attack after you defend for an extended spell. Darcy Kuemper talked this morning about continuing to “take it to them” even with a lead. The players can see it, whether it’s subconscious or not, that the game flow changed after establishing that 3-1 lead.

It isn’t as if the Oilers piled on high-danger chance after high-danger chance in the third period. Per Natural Stat Trick, the Kings actually led 2-1 in high-danger chances in the third period of Game 4 before more widely controlling things in overtime. But Edmonton certainly had more of the puck, more of the attempts and that’s a difference from the game we saw in the first 40 minutes. Whatever the reasoning behind it is, the game flow did change in that third period. You give credit to Edmonton in certain areas, it’s hard to keep that team quiet offensively for 60 minutes. But it’s not all that. The Kings have controlled so much of this series and a 2-2 margin doesn’t reflect that. With three games remaining, there’s time to find what’s needed to get these games over the line but that window just got much narrower with two defeats in Alberta.

So now we head home.

Kings host the Oilers for Game 5 on Tuesday evening in Los Angeles. Certainly a swing game if you will, but not a series decider as it could have been.

Before the series, I wrote about moments within each of the past three series. In 2022, 2023 and 2024 as you look back, the Kings were faced with moments that could have rewritten history. In 2022, it was Game 6 at home, tied 2-2 in the third period with a chance to clinch. In 2023, it was a 3-0 lead early in Game 4 at home, leading the series two games to one. Last season, it was Game 4 at home, a 0-0 game late, in full control, with the chance to tie the series.

Last night has an eerie similarity to Game 4 in 2023, in that the Kings firmly had the opportunity to take a stranglehold on the series and weren’t able to do so. A 3-0 lead lost is larger than 3-1, but this was 3-1 in the third period, as opposed to 3-0 after 20 minutes. The difference, though, is that the ending is unwritten. The above mentioned moments were in hindsight the moment when I felt those series could have been changed. But none of those moments eliminated the Kings. They still had the chance to win those series but ultimately did not. Just like they still have the chance to win this series. A good one at that. And that’s the opportunity this group has to show that they are different. So go be different.

For the third time in four years, the series sits two wins apiece, though this time, the Kings control home-ice advantage. A big ace in the hole, certainly, but that doesn’t make it a given. Last night’s Game 4 defeat could wind up on that list next season if the Kings do not win the series. But we don’t know the ending yet and that’s what should provide a lot of hope going into Game 5. Games 3 and 4, despite being missed opportunities, are footnotes if the Kings take care of business at home. So we’ll park and ride it for the time being, because while the storyline still exists, there’s still everything to play for in Game 5 and beyond.