Angeles Analysis – Stats, Schmats

Last night’s win over Philadelphia, 30 hours after the win over Edmonton, gave the Kings five victories from their six games played on the second half of back-to-backs this season. At 1.67 points-per-game in those scenarios, only the Boston Bruins rank higher.

It was also their seventh consecutive win on home ice, improving the team to 12-2-1 at home this season, good for a .833 winning percentage, tied for the best mark in the NHL. Since Jim Hiller took over as the team’s head coach, the Kings are 26-5-2 at Crypto.com Arena during the regular season. That’s a winning percentage of .818, the best mark in the NHL since Hiller’s first game as the bench boss, coming on February 10, 2024.

It’s hard to pinpoint situational success.

Like why, during that same stretch, do the Kings have the third most successful power play at home, clicking at 29.6 percent, compared to the fourth worst power play in the NHL at 12.8 percent on the road? Why, after seven games on the road without a power-play goal, did that unit deliver its most timely goal of the season last night, the game-winning goal in the third period on their only opportunity of the game? Why, after coming from behind just once all season, have the Kings now done it twice in consecutive days?

Perhaps the answer comes from Ted Lasso.

“At this point, there’s a belief,” Jim Hiller said. “You’d like to say there’s a belief at the beginning of the season, but every season the team is new, it’s fresh, there’s new players and you have to earn that belief in one another. The belief that we’re either going to one, shut it down, or two, we’ve got enough talent and skill that we’re going to go and score. I think we start to get 36 games in and I start to think ‘okay we’ve done this, we can do this’ and there’s just a feeling, it’s hard to describe. Some years, you never get it how you want to get it. This year, it feels like we have it.”

Anze Kopitar was asked last night, despite being down 4-3, if the game still felt like it was there for the taking.

He laughed before answering.

Because obviously it was for this team.

If you include the game in Nashville, in which the Kings came from two goals down to collect a point, the Kings have overturned a deficit in the third period in three of their last four games. Regardless of how the first 40 went, there’s a belief that the game is there to be taken on any given night. He didn’t say it outright, but it felt in some ways like Jim Hiller was comparing the Kings last year to this year. Maybe that’s just my interpretation. No playoff team last year had fewer comeback wins than the Kings did in 2023-24. Same goes for multi-goal comeback wins. The Kings picked up their second multi-goal comeback win of the season yesterday against the Flyers. They had just three last season in total. Sometimes, you just feel that belief in a team. The 2021-22 team had it, despite being what I would consider to be the least talented team on paper the Kings have had from that season on. Had six multi-goal comeback wins, though, tied for the fourth most in the NHL that season. Sometimes you find it. Sometimes, you end a season searching for it, as it often felt like the Kings did last year, all the way through Game 5 in Edmonton. There’s no searching right now.

Kopitar was also asked about what has changed in Hiller’s messaging to the team from Day 1 to now.

“Nothing.”

I can see why it would be hard to believe on the outside.

Because, while belief within the room is really all that matters, there was certainly not much, if any, belief in this group outside of the room on Day 1. It was a belief that, on the outside, had to be earned. Something had to have changed, right? Couldn’t possibly be the same stuff that was scoffed at in October, right? It hasn’t changed, though.

In the room, the Kings always believed in what they were doing. That’s why nothing has changed. The plan is being realized and wins are following. The points certainly help. But Hiller and the Kings have always had the vision and right now they’re executing it. With as deep a team as they’ve had since exiting the rebuild, and a belief system and buy-in firmly in place, that vision is now paying dividends.

I guess, all of that to say that having statistics like a home record of a back-to-back record is great. Certainly better than not having them. But it’s hard to measure belief. Hard to measure feeling. Hiller moved Quinton Byfield to the wing for a handful of shifts in the third period yesterday, back on a line with Kopitar and Adrian Kempe. Just had a feeling it was the best way to win that game. That line scored the tying goal together. Can’t measure that.

Perhaps it does tie into the statistics a little bit. Byfield has eight points (5-3-8) over his last seven games after he had three goals and 11 points over his first 29 games. His last three games coming in were outstanding performances and he hadn’t played a ton in the first 40 minutes. Pretty good feeling.

Byfield isn’t the only one stepping up too. Phillip Danault has six points (1-5-6) over his last seven games, after he totaled 13 over his first 28 games. Before his injury, Trevor Moore had 15 points over his last 17 games, following three from his first 11 games. This coming on top of production maintained from Adrian Kempe and Anze Kopitar, among others. Scoring beyond those two was an issue at the quarter-mark of the season. Isn’t much of an issue right now and when Moore comes back, it adds just another element to the group up front.

As we approach the new year, the hope is that belief will only continue to power greater results, because there are still greater levels for this team to reach. Reports have defenseman Drew Doughty back on the ice and while a return is not in any way imminent, Doughty is coming into a team that’s firing on all cylinders, which means he can be eased in off a fractured ankle, not over-relied upon. Doughty is an emotional leader and a top-pairing defenseman. Adding him back into the mix should only bolster the belief of a group that’s learned to win without him. A group that’s learned to rely on others to carry the load. If Doughty can re-integrate with those other players maintaining their level, that’s how a team, that already believes, can find another level.

Day off today, Insiders. Back to practice tomorrow before a New Year’s Day rematch against the Devils. Will have the annual Yearly Recap up tomorrow afternoon, as we officially shut the door on 2024!