Angeles Analysis – How Much Analyzing Is Over-Analyzing?

Most head coaches have used a version of the phrase “not overanalyzing a win.”

After yesterday’s 3-2 victory over Utah, which improved the Los Angeles Kings to 5-2-2 on this young season, Jim Hiller was asked a lot about the things that have gone wrong. On the last question of the post-game availability, we heard that phrase.

“I’m not going to critique the win that hard.”

5-2-2 is an excellent start to the season. Level on games played, the Kings sit one point behind the Vegas Golden Knights for the top spot in the Pacific Division, with the two teams set to square off on Wednesday evening at Crypto.com Arena.

Despite being 5-2-2, I don’t think the Kings have played their best game yet.

I think both of those things can be true. I think it’s fair to acknowledge both. We’re at this point, with the tenth game of the season coming up on Tuesday in San Jose, and the Kings have, to this point, matched last season’s start exactly. Last October, the Kings posted a record of 5-2-2 through their first nine games, winning their tenth for a 6-2-2 opening segment to the season. Against the Sharks on Tuesday, they have the opportunity to match that, with eight of their first ten games coming away from home, compared to five last season. A year ago, six of the ten games were played against teams that wound up qualifying for the playoffs, compared to three this year from the 2024 playoff field.

We can appreciate the record and be satisfied with the points in the bank here in October. Without Drew Doughty, without Darcy Kuemper for a decent stretch and without the lines clicking as intended, 5-2-2 is pretty good.

“I’m not unsatisfied at all,” Hiller said. “We’ve had Drew out of the lineup, that’s a big piece on the power play, he plays on the top of the power play. He’s a big piece on the penalty kill, big piece at 5-on-5, so it’s going to take a little bit of time. I’m really happy with the record. I think we can play better, but we’re not going to try to search for something that’s not there.”

A few more words, but it’s essentially the same quote – they’re not going to over analyze a win, especially in October.

We can also acknowledge that it hasn’t been perfect. We should acknowledge it. Certain wins have been closer than they should have been and we haven’t seen the needed levels yet for 60 minutes. I don’t think anyone would tell you it’s gone perfectly according to plan, but the record has, thus far, spoken for itself. Jordan Spence said on Thursday that the overall performance wouldn’t have won on most nights. Anze Kopitar and Trevor Moore said similar things in Buffalo, as did a couple of others. There are greater levels to be reached going forward.

Hiller was recently posed a question specifically regarding his top-two forward lines, but I think the answer applies to the team as a whole.

“Is it a negative or a positive? Is it a positive that we’re 5-2-2 and those two lines haven’t hit their stride yet or is it a negative that we’re 5-2-2 and those guys, for whatever reasons, haven’t. I don’t know. We have a tough time with that one, but clearly those two lines have not hit their stride.”

The overall team approach is what you make of it. Is it encouraging that the team has found a way to get results without Doughty, with Kuemper missing time, with some key players not yet finding their best form? Or, is it concerning that we’re approaching Game 10 and the Kings haven’t delivered the best 60 minutes they’re capable of? Depends how you view the glass, I suppose. Personally, I’m a regression to the mean guy, so I think the team will perform better going forward than they have. They’ll have to prove it, though, as the schedule becomes more difficult.

The Kings have done a lot of good things. The 5-on-5 play, as a team, has been what we’ve come to expect from this group over the last several seasons, in terms of controlling not just changes but the more dangerous chances. The Kings are controlling more than 56 percent of high-danger chances, the fourth-best rate in the NHL. They’re just shy of 55 percent of shots on goal, a number which ranks third in the league.

Per Natural Stat Trick, the actual has matched the expected, almost shot for shot. While the Kings have gotten above-expected production from their defensemen, where they’ve perhaps lacked has been the matching up front. Not sure if this is a good stat or a bad stat, but the Kings have gotten 67.6 percent of their points this season from their forwards. A positive reflection on the blueline or an indication they need more up front. Not sure.

Up front, six of the team’s regular 12 forwards are at three points or less and eight are at four or fewer. The power play got a big goal, with what was clearly a revamped approach, on Saturday, but is clicking at 15.6 percent. The penalty kill has been boom or bust, allowing either zero goals or multiple goals thus far. The Kings are in the bottom ten in both special teams categories, though one power-play goal is the difference between 23rd and 17th and two goals the difference between 23rd and 12th. The PK total will probably take awhile to recover from Ottawa, but if the team can limit minor penalties, it will be given the chance to. The Kings only took three minors on Saturday, though two were taken by forward Kevin Fiala, who did not take a shift after the second one. I’d expect Fiala to be back in his spot on Tuesday, but Hiller has stated publicly that repeat offenders would see their icetime reduced and he practiced what he preached against Utah HC. Fiala is too important to this team not to be on the ice. Just have to find that balance and we’ve seen extended stretches of him doing exactly that.

All in all, that’s 1,000 words analyzing a win. Analyzing consecutive wins and analyzing a .667 winning percentage through nine games. Big opportunity on Tuesday to match last season’s start and, with the games continuing to come fast, hopefully find the style of play we’re looking for, improving as a unit as the season rolls on.