2023 Kings Seasons In Review – Gabriel Vilardi

Moving along in the season in review articles with a look at the third line, we shift the focus to one Gabriel Vilardi, who had himself quite the breakout season up front. Vilardi established himself as a productive offensive player this season, as he set career highs in goals, assists and points. A strong campaign from Vilardi, with a look at his campaign below.

Gabriel Vilardi
LAK Statline – 63 games played, 23 goals, 18 assists, +10 rating, 18 penalty minutes
Playoff Statline – 5 games played, 2 goals, 2 assists, even rating, 0 penalty minutes
Possession Metrics (Relative To Kings) – CF% – 53.7% (+0.8%), SCF% – 54.0% (+0.5%), HDCF% – 58.0% (+3.5%)

Vilardi entered training camp as an unknown. He wasn’t a roster lock and he certainly wasn’t a lineup lock. His high-level of play started early and continued throughout the season. He exits the season as a known quantity, after a strong display on the ice, with a new outlook and expression off the ice. Good signs from a player who took a massive step towards validating the draft pick the Kings invested in him back in 2017.

Trending Up – Gabe Vilardi’s coming out party. 23 goals were a career high as he nearly doubled his goals per/60 output from a season ago. Vilardi’s production started during training camp and carried into the regular season, as he scored four goals from his first five games and 10 goals from his first 15 games. In that 15-game start, Vilardi was tied for third in the NHL in goals. His pace tailed off a bit, but his 0.36 goals-per-game pace equals out to 30 goals over the course of an 82-game season and you’d have taken that 10 times over at the start of the season. He went on to add four points (2-2-4) from five playoff games after returning from injury in Game 2. On top of the raw output, the underlying metrics were very supportive of the breakout season. Vilardi established himself as an important offensive player for this team with the first glimpse of the production we all knew was possible when considering his extremely high offensive skillset.

Now, while Vilardi is a goalscorer, a dynamic offensive player and he’s got terrific hands and playmaking ability around the goals scored, his numbers also paint some outstanding defensive metrics. Among NHL forwards with 750 or more minutes played at even strength this season, Vilardi ranked fourth in fewest high-danger chances against and seventh in fewest goals allowed, both on a per/60 basis. Vilardi’s matchups, playing on the third line, were generally favorable and he started more than 58 percent of his shift in the offensive zone……but man, the Kings allowed very little of quality when he was on the ice and the puck rarely went into the LA net. At least some of that credit has to go towards a player who has worked extremely hard over the last 12 months to round out his game at the NHL level.

Solid production, very little against……really nice season, especially for a player who was playing on a one-year contract for just above league minimum this season. One of the best value deals on the Kings books without question.

Trending Down – When asked about an extension during exit interviews, neither Vilardi nor Rob Blake was particularly committal on the process. Vilardi’s answer was to be expected, he’s got someone to handle it, but Blake’s was a complement sandwich, with the middle part being “we need Gabe to be able to play full seasons.” As he set a career high in games played in 2022-23, Vilardi still missed nearly 25 percent of the schedule due to a pair of undisclosed injury setbacks, in addition to Game 1 in the playoffs. For a player who missed nearly two years earlier in his development process, there is obviously an injury history and whenever injuries reappear, whether linked or not, there is a pause for concern. The talent is undeniable, but availability is still an important ability. For a long-term commitment, both player and team would like that availability factor to be more so than it’s been.

The other downside for Vilardi was a bit surprising to me when researching his numbers, but of the ten Kings skaters to log at least 100 minutes this season on the power play, Vilardi was the least productive of the group. His role certainly varied, with a lot of time spent at the net front and beside the net, but despite being a part of the top power-play unit this season, logging nearly three minutes on the man advantage per game, Vilardi’s 2.87 points-per-game ranked the lowest of the group. What’s the underlying cause? Vilardi led the team in high-danger chances per/60 on the power play and was third in scoring chances, so he got the Grade-A looks. He also shot at nearly 20 percent on the PP, but his on-ice shooting percentage (meaning all Kings players when Vilardi was on the ice) was the worst of those 10 players. Just bad luck? Maybe he led the league in third assists? Maybe he wasn’t as impactful as I remembered him being? Not really sure……but it’s something to keep an eye on.

2023-24 Outlook– Right now, Vilardi’s outlook first depends on signing his next contract, which is likely one of the top two priorities for the Kings, alongside finding the other half of the goaltending tandem. Vilardi is a restricted free agent for the second time in his career, after he signed a one-year deal last offseason. Now, he’s more of a known quantity and there are a lot more options, both regarding term and cap hit.

Casting aside any external speculation, he’s got a lot of options assuming the contract does get signed. Regarding the contract, Vilardi had his breakout season and was very good for the Kings this season, but it’s also his first season producing at that rate. He skated in a career-high 63 games but that’s still 19 shy of a full schedule and it’s by far a career-high in that department. Those factors make his contract negotiations one of the most interesting storylines of the offseason. Unlike what you would have projected for Vladislav Gavrikov, the term and cap hit likely go up and down concurrently, as opposed to in opposite directions. The longer the deal, the more you’re paying for potential. Interested to see where he ultimately settles.