2024 Kings Seasons In Review – Matt Roy

Starting off the individual seasons in review with a look at pending unrestricted free agent Matt Roy.

Roy’s home this season was where it’s been since he entered the NHL. The right side of the second pairing. Roy made that role his own once he got his feet wet in the NHL and he’s held down that position for the better part of four seasons now. A look at his 2023-24 campaign with the Kings below.

More on his most recent season below.

Matt Roy
LAK Statline –81 games played, 5 goals, 20 assists, +21 rating, 42 penalty minutes
Playoff Statline – 5 games played, 0 goals, 2 assists, +1 rating, 2 penalty minutes
Possession Metrics (Relative To Kings) – CF% – 53.6% (+0.3%), SCF% – 53.5% (+0.5%), HDCF% – 56.8% (+5.8%)

Trending Up – Let’s start in the most dangerous area of the ice. With Roy on the ice at 5-on-5 this season, no Kings defensemen had a better HDCF% than Roy did, coming in at just shy of 57 percent. A deeper dive into the numbers shows us what the eye test tells us about Matt Roy – the dude is good at defending. No Kings defenseman was on the ice for fewer high-danger chances against, per/60, than Roy was. Wasn’t particularly close, either. Around the NHL, just three defensemen to exceed 1,000 minutes at 5-on-5 this season allowed fewer high-danger chances on a per/60 basis. Doesn’t feel all that surprising when considering the fact that we’re talking about Matt Roy.

Roy was also a driving force behind the resurgent LA Kings penalty kill unit, which finished the season ranked second in the NHL. Let’s put his success very succinctly into the numbers. No Kings defenseman was on the ice for more minutes while shorthanded this season. Of the 120 defensemen around the NHL to log at least 100 shorthanded minutes, Roy ranked 20th in terms of fewest goals against on a per/60 basis while shorthanded. The improvements made to the penalty kill were done in a variety of different ways, including drastic systematic changes. Individuals had to perform better though to make those changes matter. Roy was one who did that.

While their overall totals did not match their 20 games at the end of the 2022-23 season, the Gavrikov/Roy duo were on the ice for substantially more goals for compared to against. A top-ten pairing in on-ice goals for on a per/60 basis, the Kings scored over a goal more than they allowed, per/60, when Gavrikov and Roy were on the ice together as a duo (3.17 for, 2.15 against). At the end of the day, they were one of ten pairs around the NHL to log more than 1,000 minutes together at 5-on-5 and the Kings controlled nearly 60 percent of goals in those situations. Some of the underlying, puck possession metrics were down from a season ago, no question, but when you start just over 40 percent of shifts in the offensive zone, yet score nearly 60 percent of the goals, you must be doing alright.

Trending Down – While Roy’s defensive season was the player we’ve come to know and appreciate, his goalscoring numbers were down from a season ago. Halved, in fact. In 2022-23, Roy buried nine goals in the regular season plus one in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. While I don’t think anyone expected Roy to bury ten goals every season, he’s certainly got the shot to be an offensive producer. Getting ten goals from him specifically helped to bolster the total from the backend and going from 10 to 5 was a drop off. Several sets of underlying numbers, whether it be shots on goal, scoring chances and high-danger chances on a per/60 basis were nearly identical for Roy between this and last season. Perhaps just a regression to the mean, or a bit of bad luck, depending on how you want to view it. Still though, another 10-goal season would’ve given the Kings two defensemen in double figures and scoring beyond Drew Doughty on the blueline was an area that needs an uptick going forward.

You can’t put the struggles on special teams in the playoffs on one player. The way the Oilers played on both the power play and penalty kill was dominant in all facets. Dominant. Personnel-wise, I’m not really sure what could have been changed when it comes to the penalty kill. However, the Oilers scored nine power-play goals and Roy was on the ice for all nine power-play goals against. Contrast that to the metrics above and naturally there was a large drop off from regular season play, when Roy was a key part of the league’s second-best unit. Take from it what you will. Five games against the best PP unit in the NHL. The group did not get the job done and Roy had a part in that.

2024-25 Outlook– In a perfect world, the Kings would sign Roy to a contract that takes care of him financially, on a longer-term deal, that makes sense for the Kings salary-cap picture. Do we live in that perfect world? Remains to be seen.

Roy fits the Kings well. He was a seventh-round draft pick by the Kings, he developed in the AHL and became a contributor for the Kings at the NHL level. For all of those reasons, you’d like to keep him around. It’s also a business. Roy said multiple times in his exit interview that he’d like to remain with the Kings, if everything worked out, but he also acknowledged that it is a business. Fact of the matter is, the Kings have two younger, right-shot defensemen who are at or NHL ready and who come in at a low salary-cap hit. For Roy’s outlook for next season, it’ll come down to the fit being right for both player and team. It’s not there yet, but we’ve got a month to go until that formal decision needs to be made.