Angeles Analysis – R1, G2

Splitsville, Insiders.

In many ways we’re right where we started. We’re also right where we were last season, though it was a different route to get there. After six (and change) hard-fought periods North of the Border, the Kings were able to flip home-ice advantage, taking a 1-1 series back to Los Angeles for Game 3.

Game 2 last night emphasized two things about this team, as Todd McLellan detailed in his post-game availability. The Kings start once again was not good enough, in their own words, to get a result in Edmonton. The Kings also once again showed resilience to keep the game close and find a way back into a tie game. Both can be true. In Game 1, the positives outweighed the negatives. In Game 2, the reverse turned out to be true, as that come-from-behind ability drew the Kings level, but never ahead.

Look, we all know how the game started. I think Gabe Vilardi put it bluntly and honestly.

“The first period was terrible, there’s no excuse for that.”

The Kings were without a shot on goal until there were fewer than two minutes left in the first period until an Alex Iafallo wraparound and a Vladislav Gavrikov shot from the point got them on the board in short succession. You can point to the fact that the game flow suggested a scoreline that could have been greater than 2-0, but the fact of the matter is, the start was simply not what the Kings knew it needed to be, facing what they knew would be a hungry and pointed Edmonton team after Game 1 unfolded the way that it did.

“The frustrating thing for me is that there were some things that we needed to do early in the game and we didn’t decide to do them until the second and third periods,” Todd McLellan said last night. “It was very similar to Game 1……they know those things, so we’re going to have to fix them.”

For reference, embedding last night’s game flow from Natural Stat Trick below –

Early in the second period, the chart shows the Oilers at their largest differential, somewhere around +23 at that stage in the game. The game finished with Edmonton showing an advantage in shot attempts of just +5 at all strengths. The Oilers controlled the puck for almost the entirety of the first period, especially out of the gates. That continued throughout the first period, into the early second period when a combination of saves from Joonas Korpisalo and defensive breakups – specifically a few from veteran Alex Edler – kept the game 2-0. From that point on, the Kings began to find life and began to find the puck. It wasn’t dominant by any stretch, especially visually in the way that Edmonton can control a game when they get rolling. It was more in LA Kings fashion, as they slowly climbed and clawed their way back into the game, eventually scoring twice in the final six minutes of the frame. Though they never led in high-danger chances, the Kings wound up six attempts ahead of the Oilers in both the second and third periods. While you can point to a 4-1 leg up in power plays, none came in the third period, as the Kings posted the same differential.

All of those words to say that the Kings pushed when they went down by multiple goals, but when you’re playing the Edmonton Oilers on the road, spotting them multiple goals isn’t a recipe for consistent success, even if it worked once before. The resilience was the positive takeaway from the performance, but when that resilience is digging its way out of a multi-goal deficit, even the best of comeback efforts will fall short sometimes. Last night was one of those times.

Where it leaves the Kings is with a 1-1 series split heading home. I’ve probably been guilty of using too many comparisons to last season when looking at the way things have broken out over the last two games and looking at how this series is the same or different. It’s the same when you look at the logos of the teams and the one-win apiece stat line. It’s been pretty different in just about every other way and should be treated as such. It’s an easy comparison to make but not necessarily a fair one or even a relevant one.

The comparison that is relevant is Game 1 to Game 2, with Todd McLellan calling last night’s game flow “very similar” to the direction that Game 1 went. The Kings were unhappy with the start of the game and each game saw the team fall behind by a two-goal deficit. Edmonton was the better side out of the gates in both games, forcing the Kings into a position of needing to calm the game down. They were able to do so in both instances, keeping their deficit at two goals apiece, but when you cut down the time you’re on the runway, but increase the distance to the final destination, sometimes you fall short. The Kings overcame those obstacles in Game 1 but couldn’t replicate the feat last night in Game 2.

I think most people are probably saying one of two things after the way these two games have shaken out. Really, these people are saying the same thing, it’s just how they’re framing it. The Kings haven’t put together a full 60 minutes yet in this series, but find themselves in a good spot. Is it a good thing that they earned a split on the road without playing their best game, a sign that if they do find their best game, they’re in a great position? Or is it a bad thing that we haven’t seen the best of the Kings over Games 1 and 2 and that’s a trend no one wants to see continue into the home games, as they’ll need a higher level to win the series?

Personally, I’m a big law of averages guy. The Kings are -4 in goal differential in the first period in this series, but as they head home, they ranked fifth in the NHL on home ice this season in first-period goals scored (45) and first-period goal differential (+14). From the trade deadline on, the Kings ranked third in the NHL with the fewest first-period goals allowed and just one team played lower-event opening periods by total goals for and against. We know that regular-season trends don’t always factor into the postseason, but as the Kings head home they offer perhaps a bit of optimism in role reversals.

If you’re more of an “in the moment” individual, and believe more in carryovers of recent days than recent months, then you’ll believe things need to change…..and they do. So, as we head home to Southern California, it’s a change of scenery and one the Kings hope can become a change of fortunes out of the gates.

No practice today, Insiders, as we’re currently at 10,000 feet. Will have both some Kings and Reign content later in the day as we look ahead to Game 3 in Los Angeles and Game 2 in Colorado. More to follow!