In stark contrast to the last three seasons, the Kings have to take a wait and see approach heading into NHL Draft

How do you approach a draft when you don’t pick on Day 1?

Wait and see, baby.

“A lot will depend on how the first round shapes up,” Kings General Manager Rob Blake said. “You come home after that and you identify players who may have dropped out of that first round and then there’s a possibility of if they’re available how do you get them, do you move up or will they likely be available at 51. If they’re not, the strategy could be to move back and acquire something else. It’s up in the air, a lot of it has been run in the back room, but it really takes shape after that first day.”

The Kings enter the 2022 NHL Draft in waters they haven’t navigated in several years, which are waters that lay beyond the Top 10 with their first-round selection. A vastly improved season led the Kings to the 19th overall selection in the draft, until the organization moved that pick in exchange for immediate NHL help, in the form of 33-goal scorer Kevin Fiala, who was acquired last week.

Even before the trade, it’s a situation dictated by improvement on the ice. With improved results come later selections and that’s a great problem to have. It also creates more of a wait and see mentality for the Kings approaching the draft. Last season, the Kings could go into their first pick with a list of eight names, knowing that even in a worst-case scenario, the eighth-ranked player on their board would be available. Picking at number 19, or in the current situation, number 51, the Kings have to take a different approach as it comes to player evaluation, not knowing who might be taken in Round 1 and who could fall.

“We met with Mark [Yannetti], his staff was in LA last week and we met again here in Montreal, everyone is gathered here in Montreal to discuss strategy,” Blake said. “Last year, we moved around picks and zeroed in on a few, targeted players. That could be a possibility, or the possibility of trying to acquire some other picks through the draft. It’s open and a lot will be dictated with how the first day goes.”

Speaking with the aforementioned Yannetti, he generally agreed with Blake’s sentiment.

Yannetti believes that even if the Kings offered all five of their selections – picks in rounds two through six – that it would not be enough to move back into the first round on its own. The Kings would likely need to move picks in 2023 or future drafts, or a player or prospects, to select on Day 1 tonight. Barring that development, the Kings are currently sitting at 51st overall, with the ability to move up and down as they choose.

Last season, the Kings had a clear approach, which was to get the players they specifically wanted. When Francesco Pinelli fell into round 2, the Kings jumped up to get him. They went on to make similar trades to select Samuel Helenius and Kirill Kirsanov, concluding their business in the middle of round three, trading up three times to guarantee the players they wanted. Yannetti attributed some of that to having less information available as a result of restraints on scouting, so the Kings chose to get what they knew at the expense of having fewer lottery tickets later. It’s an approach they were happy with under the circumstances.

With one of the NHL’s deepest prospect pools – ranked in the top five by most who release such rankings – the Kings have the option to do just about everything over the next two days. The Kings have depth at several positions and could again opt to trade up and condense their number of selections. They could also trade back for additional picks, knowing they only have five at this time. All to be dictated by what happens in front of them.

The approach for the Kings naturally changed last week, with their first-round pick trading hands to the Minnesota Wild.

Fiala helps now, fitting into the window of contention that the Kings have established, with team control for the next seven seasons. At 25-years-old, the Kings believe they’re getting the best of Fiala’s time, coming off a career year, but he’s not just a one or two year fix, either. He’s an important add both this season and over the next seven. When looking at how Fiala can impact the Kings’ rise to a contender, versus the timeline of how say the 19th overall pick impacts that rise, it was a “no brainer” from Yannetti’s point of view to make the move.

“Based on data, the likelihood of the 19th overall pick helping you before year five is very, very slim,” he added. “They usually begin to make it at three, they establish themselves at four and they make it at five. So, even if we hit a homerun on that pick, they’re not helping us until year four at the earliest.”

Following the deal, the focus of the organization shifted from putting their most attention on the 19th pick, to the 51st pick. It’s not an exact science, because with a finite amount of time and resources available, putting the same amount of attention on the 300th ranked player as the 20th is simply not a smart allocation of resources. But that’s how things have shifted over the last week or so.

Regardless of when and where the Kings select, what will be a guarantee is that they will select who they believe is the best player on the board, as opposed to a potential reach for positional need. Looking at a position of strength, righthanded defensemen for one, the Kings have depth and that depth allowed them to part with Brock Faber in the Fiala trade.

Yannetti said that if the best player available at each spot was a right-handed defenseman, he would draft five right-handed defensemen. A bit exaggerated, perhaps, but it proves a point that the Kings buy into that philosophy.

“I think one of the things that we do really well is learning from our mistakes,” Yannetti said. “Early on, we didn’t always pick the best player available and I think in all of the cases that come to mind, it was disastrous. If it’s left up to me, and in most cases now it is, we’ll take seven right-shot defensemen if that’s what it is.”

Another big part of the draft process for the Kings is the element of character.

There’s the on-ice side of the draft, the talent, skills and analytics of evaluating players and that’s extremely important. Players not skilled enough to be drafted will surface, as scouting reports are conducted and analytics are crunched. That creates the player side of a draft-eligible player. There’s also the character aspect, and that’s a different side of evaluation.

Yannetti believes that the only way to truly analyze a prospect’s character is through multiple interactions, driven by taking the time, putting in the effort and getting to know these young players. Interaction four or five might reveal something from a guarded person that interaction one would not. The Kings want individuals who mesh with what they want in their organization.”

“If you want to learn what that person is, and what they’re about, their value structures and whether they’re a match for you, you have to go through the typical, awkward, first date stuff,” Yannetti said.”Then, it’s the less awkward second date stuff and eventually you get to learn the core values of that person, who they are and do they mesh with you, or do their opposites complement you. I don’t think there is any substitute for time, effort and multiple dates.”

Armed with months worth of research, Yannetti and his team now plays the waiting game. That waiting game on Day 1, however, won’t just be watching Kevin Fiala highlights on his phone. Without a first-round selection, Yannetti will be watching, detailing and processing. He’ll evaluate costs of draft-day trades and how the might impact a potential Kings deal the following morning. He’ll model out certain situations, to see how it could impact players falling. All done in an effort to push the right buttons when the Kings are finally on the clock.

“I’m a geek with stuff like this,” he admitted. “I’m going to watch draft trends, I’m going to watch what the cost of moving up in the first round is, I’m going to watch to see if any teams are jittery to move back, move forward. Especially in an in-person draft, now there’s more people walking around, I’ll look at stuff like that. I’ll look at the cost, playing with the analytic part of things, projections and probabilities. Typically, the cost to move up in the first is a second-round pick, but there are years when it’s gone down to a third, because they haven’t liked the draft as much. In years past, it’s a second-round pick to move up two or three spots, but if it’s a third, I know to move up from 51 is going to be less and we could target higher options. If it’s a second plus to move up one spot, I know that moving up in the second round might be harder, so we adjust. I’ll keep myself busy.”

Embedding the full interview with Yannetti, with myself and Jesse Cohen here. Always great content when it comes to Yannetti, with this interview one of the best podcasts dropped this year. Give it a listen after you read!