Angeles Analysis – The First Road Trip

Let’s compare two teams, shall we?

Team A is currently in the top ten across the league in controlling in shot attempts, shots on goal and expected goals for the season (CF%, S%, xG%). The same team ranks in the top five in high-danger chances and ranks one point ahead of the defending division champions.

What if I expanded on those stats above, noting that strictly in terms of chances created, this team ranks inside the top four in the NHL in shot attempts, scoring chances and high-danger chances for. The team above them in high-danger chances is 4-1-1, the team below them is the two-time, defending Stanley Cup champions.

Team B is the NHL’s worst team in terms of percentage of shot attempts controlled. While they rank slightly better in other categories, between scoring chances, high-danger chances and expected goals, they rank better than the sixth-to-last team in just one of those three metrics.

Team B is embroiled in one of the most visible scandals in the NHL and is currently just one point ahead of a team that finished in last place in its division last season. Team B is currently without its top scorer from a season ago and has seen its point totals decrease in consecutive seasons.

In a vaccum, I’d have been pretty excited about the prospects of Team A. I’d have expected that team to be in a good place through six games and certainly in a better place than Team B. The reality of the situation though is that Team A is the 1-4-1 LA Kings and Team B is the 4-1-0 San Jose Sharks.

Statistics are important, but it’s also important to remember that they only tell some of the story. Frankly, I could use statistics to prove just about any point I wanted to. I could use statistics to make a fourth-line player look like an All-Star and I could use statistics to make the opposite feel true as well. All it really takes is choosing the right statistics and ignoring bits of context that surround them. Context such as the defending division champs have two points, or that the defending cup champs are 2-4-1.

Statistics never tell the whole story. Statistics can be used to script a narrative. We all use them that way, from time to time, to tell the story that we want to tell. In some ways, in many ways really, statistics are what help us to validate our opinions but in other ways they can be misleading. And that’s kind of the point.

I could write this article, discussing underlying metrics and how they support the notion that the Kings are better than their record. The reality of the situation though, following a four-game road trip that netted just one point in the standings, is that we’re in a results-driven business. Over the course of four games in Nashville, Dallas and St. Louis, the Kings didn’t deliver from a results standpoint.

The Kings played a good game on Friday evening in Dallas, a game in which they deserved two points. They played parts of a good game on Tuesday in Nashville and last night in St. Louis. They probably deserved more than the zero points they got from those two games. Saturday in St. Louis……yeah, that one was what it was.

That’s the problem with the eye-test too. If you watched those four games in their entirety, you probably wouldn’t put the team at 0-3-1. There’s at least one win in there, maybe more, and certainly more than one point. At the end of the day though, we’re in a results driven business, and what counts are the wins and the losses.

The team is saying the right things at this stage. After Saturday’s defeat in St. Louis, alternate captain Alex Iafallo said that the team needed to go home and look themselves in the mirror. He said the players were embarrassed with that night’s performance, and the Kings came out with a much better one on Monday. After the loss yesterday, Matt Roy talked about a loss being a loss, and that even an improved effort – which Monday evening was – isn’t good enough at this stage.

These are two members of the team’s emerging leadership core, behind the veterans, and at face value they’re taking these results to heart.

Todd McLellan said yesterday that the Kings still believe that if they continue to do the right things, such as they did in the second period yesterday, the first period on Saturday, the second period in Nashville and pretty much the entire game in Dallas, they will eventually find success.

As we selectively pick certain parts of these games, however, perhaps it points to where the team stands.

We’ve seen the aggressive play and mindset that has been preached throughout the preseason. When it’s effectively put into play, the Kings have looked pretty damn good. We just didn’t see it for a full 60 minutes on this road trip, or from a full group of 20 players on a given night.

The Kings scored six goals from four games on this trip and have a total of 14 goals this season. Anze Kopitar and his linemates have accounted for 10 of those 14 goals, with one of the others coming on the power play, and another yet coming in “garbage time” as Todd McLellan labeled it on Saturday. To fully achieve success, the Kings need to find depth scoring to support Kopitar’s line when they’re going, and to help carry the load themselves when they’re not.

Kopitar’s play, both on this trip and on the season as a whole, has been one of the team’s biggest success stories. It’s not new information that the captain makes smart, effective plays in all areas of the rink, and through six games, he’s led the way offensively as well. Despite the addition of Phillip Danault, Kopitar has continued to log the toughest matchups on most nights, and has found success in doing so. Now, it’s up to the team as a whole to support its top player and find offense from lines that don’t have Kopitar on them.

The road does not get any easier from here, either, with the Kings down two of their three right-shot defensemen from opening night. This biggest defeats on this trip turned out not even to be those in the win-loss column, but rather the uncertainty around their personnel. Losing Drew Doughty to injury in Dallas is, obviously, a massive blow. Doughty’s ability to log big minutes and play in all situations cannot be replaced by a single individual. His value to the team is immense, and the situation only escalated with the injury to Sean Walker yesterday in St. Louis, one of the men tasked with replacing Doughty by committee.

The latest on both players is that they will be evaluated with the team back in Los Angeles, which they are today. Early signs on Doughty were that there is “no ligament damage” which certainly trends positively, but also does not mean we’ll see him suiting up on Thursday against Winnipeg. Walker’s injury is more recent, and we don’t know a ton beyond the fact that he was unable to put any weight on his right leg when leaving the ice late in the first period. The speedy recovery of both players would be a best-case outcome, though even a speedy recovery in this situation could still mean that the Kings need to find a way to win games without them, with five games at home on the horizon.

Looking ahead, the schedule shows Winnipeg, Montreal, Buffalo, St. Louis and New Jersey on an upcoming five-game homestand. The team will have little time to lick its wounds, and with just one practice between now and game one, they’ll need to get back on the horse in a quick and timely fashion.

It’s not the time to stop believing in this group. Teams lose games, even in bunches, it just so happens that the Kings did so early in a season with enhanced expectations, something that shines a much brighter spotlight on the situation. Though the first away trip ends in a disappointing manner, the team will have the chance to right the ship on home ice, and a six-game sample size is not even close to enough time to truly evaluate this team.

For the sake of the comment section here on LAKI, let’s hope they find the right way to do so.

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