A look inside the secondary scoring for the Kings, and what the underlying numbers are saying

Through three games, the LA Kings have gotten the required production level from their top line, powered by the offensive performances of Anze Kopitar.

With five goals and eight points in the first 180 minutes of the 2021-22 season, Kopitar has powered the team’s offensive output, as he is tied for the league lead in both goals and points. Kopitar’s opening three games have been historical on many levels. His goal on Friday tied a franchise record for most goals through a player’s first three games of a season, while his eight points are also tied for the third-most points through a players first three games in Kings history

His linemates, Dustin Brown and Viktor Arvidsson, have three and two points respectively, as they’ve flanked the captain on the team’s top unit. While Kopitar has been the story, both of his wingers have been in the mix, and should continue to produce as the line continues to gel.

The Kopitar line’s success is backed up, to an extent, by some of the underlying numbers. While I’m not expecting Kopitar to finish with 218 points this season, he and his linemates are all among the league’s top 23 players in terms of percentage high-danger chances controlled. Simply put, they’re getting the Grade A chances, while not conceding them. When frequently matched up against the opposition’s top players, that’s right where they want to be.

From the backend, defenseman Drew Doughty has also pulled his weight. No skater in the NHL has more assists than Doughty’s six and no blueliner has more than Doughty’s seven points. Frequently skating with Kopitar’s line, Doughty has produced offensively in the first three contests.

Beyond the heavy hitters, though, the Kings have struggled to match with production.

Alex Iafallo and Vladimir Tkachev each have two assists, while Phillip Danault has a goal and Adrian Kempe has an assist. All of those points came on Opening Night against Vegas, with Kopitar’s line responsible for all three goals scored since.

On the backend, no one beyond Doughty has a point this season, though we have seen a change in mindset from the team’s blueliners. There has been a concerted effort by the Kings to better work their defensemen into the rush offensively, and though it has not yet translated into points, we have seen elements of that strategy.

On the forwards, looking at the team’s second line, it feels like a matter of when, rather than if, they up their production.

As a line, the trio of Kempe, Danault and Iafallo have controlled 67.7 percent of shot attempts and 66.7 percent of high-danger chances. Among forwards with at least 40 minutes of total time on ice, each of the three members rank inside the NHL’s Top 10 in terms of controlling shot attempts. The long story short is that the Kings are getting what they need from that line in terms of chance creation – and suppression at the other end for that matter – but not the goals.

Danault feels that is close to changing, though.

“I think it’s a matter of time,” he said. “One goes in as a line and then it rolls. We’re definitely hungry for more, and we can’t wait for it to happen.”

Danault’s winger, Adrian Kempe, was inclined to agree.

“I think we’ve had a lot of chances, we just have to put the puck in the net,” he said. “I think all three games we’ve played well, the first two games we were really good and the last one, we were a little frustrated after the first period, didn’t have the puck as much as we wanted to, but at the end of the night we still ended up with some good looks. As long as we’re creating, that’s a good thing for our line and I think it’s only a matter of time.”

Tuesday evening’s game in Nashville was, in fact, a battle of the top two lines in the league by possession metrics. The Kings trio led by Danault is matched only by the Nashville trio of Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen and Matt Duchene. All six players rank inside the league’s top eight, and during the first period, they were frequently pitted against each other, though Kopitar’s line took on that matchup for the bulk of the game.

Possession is one thing, and it’s impossible to ignore the opportunities, but at the end of the day, the Kings need that depth scoring to come sooner rather than later. While the Kopitar line’s production has been excellent, “run support” as McLellan put it needs to come from somewhere.

“They’ve had numerous opportunities, Iafallo on a 3-on-1, Iafallo’s pass out into the slot, eventually those have to go in,” he said. “It’s time now, we need the run support, we can’t just rely on Kopi’s line and Gabe’s line has to give us something. Between the two of those lines, they’ve got to get something going.”

The third line has not had the same underlying numbers as the second line.

The combination of Gabe Vilardi at center, and Vladimir Tkachev on the wing, typically with Lias Andersson as the line’s third member, was a productive unit during the preseason. Their play during exhibition season gave promise of an offensively gifted third line to support the two-way presence of the Top 6.

Thus far, that has not materialized, with Vilardi and Tkachev currently the team’s lowest two forwards in terms of attempts controlled. There is some semblance of luck, with the two lowest PDO’s on the team, but McLellan has made his message clear that he wants more from that group, in terms of both generating more shots on goal, and providing more offensive production.

Where that starts might be, simply, with shooting the puck. After a healthy scratch last season, Vilardi was given a simple message – shoot the puck. From that point in the season on, the final 16 games of the regular season, he saw an uptick in individual chances created across the board, with his points-per-game rate nearly doubling in that span.

Getting that production from those two lines will be key for the Kings as they navigate the remainder of this road trip.

Looking ahead, the road ahead doesn’t necessarily get easier for the Kings, with a Dallas team that has played tight-checking hockey, allowing just nine goals from its first four games played. Following up is St. Louis, which is 3-0-0 entering the day.

At the same time though, you know that the Kings are capable of more offensively throughout their lineup, and no better time than the present to showcase that starting tomorrow evening in the Lone Star State.

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 05: Phillip Danault #24 of the Los Angeles Kings skates during a 4-1 loss to the Arizona Coyotes in a preseason game at Staples Center on October 05, 2021 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

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