Missing the net and wonky numbers through two weeks

Before we delve into scrutiny of the Kings’ available #fancystats, remember this principle: advanced stats don’t provide a “be-all, end-all” of player value and team analysis, but rather raise points and values of the team’s play and particular players that may have been overlooked. Also, Los Angeles is yet to play a road game, so many of the numbers will paint a rosier picture than what should be expected from the end result. Also, there’s a five game sample size, so The Computer is still spitting out highly variable data.

But here’s what we have thus far. See if you can sense a trend:

VERSUS (Shots on Goal – Shots Blocked – Missed Shots)
San Jose: 20-13-11
Arizona: 41-10-22
Vancouver: 15-17-22
Minnesota: 37-14-23
Colorado: 40-22-17

My word, the Kings are missing a lot of shots! Last year, 69.8% of their unblocked shot attempts were on net, and that was the fifth-worst rate in the league. Through five games this year, only 60.3% of their unblocked shot attempts are on net, and that’s far and away the league’s worst rate. No back-to-back gap in teams’ percentage of unblocked shot attempts on net is as wide as Carolina’s (29th / 64.3%) and Los Angeles’ (30th / 60.3%). Though the Kings have the 21st most blocked shots (52), they have the second most missed shots (73). All statistics incorporate five-on-five play only.

These numbers have weighed down the club’s shooting percentage. Their five-on-five on-ice unblocked shooting percentage is a league-low 1.6%; Arizona’s 9.0% represents the opposite pole. Last year, Los Angeles was tied for 21st in the league at 5.3%, and no teams were above Tampa Bay’s 6.7% or below Arizona’s 4.0%.

With these numbers in mind, it’s not a surprise to see that the Kings’ PDO – the sum of a team’s 5v5 shooting percentage and their 5v5 save percentage – is an unsustainably low 92.2. Since 2011-12, the NHL’s lowest single-season PDO was generated by Florida in 2012-13 at 96.1. Over the previous four seasons, Los Angeles’ PDO was 100.2 (2014-15), 100.1 (2013-14), 99.1 (2012-13) and 98.9 (2011-12).

War-on-Ice compiles scoring chances, and the Kings’ five-on-five scoring chance +/- is a league-best +49; there’s a big drop between Los Angeles and fourth-place San Jose, which is +14. Even if filters are adjusted to account for “close” situations – when there is at maximum a one-goal difference between the teams in the first two periods, or tied in the third – the Kings still rank second in the league with a plus-34 scoring chance differential.

Overall, when pure, unfiltered Corsi events are tabulated, Los Angeles leads the league with a 62.1% rate and a plus-92 Corsi event differential, whereas Dallas, the third-best above-water team in Corsi events, is a plus-35. So there’s a bit of a gap.

Again! Team-wide possession stats will produce wonky numbers over the first month of the season or so, and individual possession stats (which aren’t even covered here) are mostly meaningless at this point. As noted, the Kings are yet to even play a road game, so these numbers only take into account an individual filter of when Darryl Sutter has the last change. But if there’s anything to be gleaned from these numbers from an imprecise, early-season standpoint, it’s that the Kings have been a bit unlucky – they have a 2.2% on-ice shooting percentage in five-on-five play – and should see their even strength scoring rebound. That will be catalyzed when the percentage of their shots that miss the net decreases.

-huge stick tap to War-on-Ice for the statistics.