Trending in right direction, Kings still need points

Once the NHL schedule flips over to March, the observation that “this game feels like a playoff game” becomes more common in press boxes and on social media. The emotion and urgency ratchets up a notch, defensive refinements are enhanced, shots are suppressed, and an acute focus becomes more pervasive once each day is crossed off the calendar.

“I think we all understood what we needed to do to kind of be where we are, even though we’re not where we want to be,” captain Dustin Brown said. “Fortunately this league moves pretty quick. So you don’t really look at what you’ve done, you’re always looking at what you need to do and that’s, I think, a good thing.”

Looking at what they “need to do,” there are metrics that support the team’s direction – if the eye test didn’t already provide the sense of improvement since the middle of January. Sustained by an eight-game winning streak during the window, Los Angeles has been among the league’s best possession clubs since the All-Star Break. The Kings’ Fenwick-close – which some would consider to be an indicator of future success – in their 18 games since January 28 is 55.4%, tied with Winnipeg for the league’s best over that span. They’re 11-6-1 and have a crisp 100.0% PDO since the break, so the results aren’t supported by any wonky numbers despite the team’s streaky play.

When Los Angeles met Pittsburgh on Saturday, the game produced a result that wasn’t particularly unforeseen. The Kings rank fifth in the league with 2.0 goals allowed per 60 minutes since the All-Star Break; the Penguins rank fourth at 1.8. Both teams have top-four Fenwick-close rates over that span, so it’s impressive that Los Angeles finished well ahead in shots on goal, modestly ahead in shot attempts, and, by War-on-Ice.com’s account, a 20-to-12 scoring chance advantage.

“I think that’s more the type of game we want to play,” Dustin Brown said of the Kings’ 1-0 overtime loss. “Obviously we need to score a goal, but we had really good chances. I think Fleury played really well for them, but I think we limited their chances pretty well, especially considering how many power plays they had. That’s more the game we need to play.”

Said Darryl Sutter: “Break it down, [Jonathan Quick and Marc-Andre Fleury] both made big saves to keep it where it was.”

So with strong possession rates, refined defensive credentials and a goaltender in Quick who has posted a .926 save percentage over a 13-game span, it would appear Los Angeles is trending well, right?

“I mean, given the situation we’re in we have to get better,” Brown said. “I think, as a whole, this group over the years have proven when we need to play really well, we can. Unfortunately, we need to figure out a way to not put ourselves in these situations. But we’ve been tested time and time again…Down the stretch, we have to push our game to another level if we want to be in the playoffs.”

And therein lies the challenge. Calgary is oozing confidence after having returned from a 4-2-1 road trip despite having lost captain and most important player Mark Giordano during the second game of their Eastern Conference swing. Vancouver holds an upper hand on the playoff hopefuls despite having lost starting goaltender Ryan Miller due to injury by virtue of a three-point lead on the Kings and four additional regulation wins. San Jose, still very much alive if not particularly well, has a difficult schedule remaining that will pit them against Pittsburgh, Nashville and Chicago at home this week before they depart on a seven-game road trip. Based on SportsClubStats.com’s metrics, Los Angeles’ 61.5% chance of making the playoffs is barely outside the margin of error of a coin flip.

With the Kings appearing to have taken a step forward in team play, they are still in dire need of points and a more consistent offense. One method of wringing more goals out of the group may come down to the improvement in play of individuals. Dustin Brown has been playing an effective north-south game, though he has one goal, three points and a minus-one rating over his last 12 games. Justin Williams, who has one goal, three points and a minus-four rating in his last 13 games, skated alongside Jarret Stoll and Jordan Nolan at practice on Monday. Anze Kopitar has two goals in his last 21 games.

“We’ve got some guys who have slipped again,” Sutter said.

While Brown referred to the mild scoring slump as part of the “ebb and flow” of a season, there’s at least some comfort in the team being able to generate regular scoring opportunities.

“It’s not an easy league to score goals in,” he said. “It takes hard work and commitment to doing things right, but I thought [Saturday] night was a good example. We have to bear down on our chances, if anything. But individually, collectively, I think there is more concern on the offensive side of the game after a game where we lose 1-0 and we don’t have those chances. We’re generating good chances, it’s just a matter of bearing down and there is a big difference between not scoring and not having a chance. That can go individually for guys who aren’t scoring as much. If they’re getting chances, that’s kind of how it can go sometimes.”

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