Nebulous market, cap uncertainty muddle deadline

Perhaps the success the Kings have engineered during recent trading deadlines has created unrealistic expectations of what can be expected when 9:00 a.m. PT on March 2 rolls around.

In 2012, Jeff Carter was acquired from Columbus for Jack Johnson and a conditional first-round draft pick. Two years later, Matt Frattin, a second-round draft pick and a conditional third-round pick netted the Kings Marian Gaborik from the Blue Jackets

Los Angeles went on to win the Stanley Cup in both years.

“Well, that’s the problem right there. Everybody thinks, ‘Well, we’re going to pull another rabbit out of a hat,’” General Manager Dean Lombardi said. He has an idea of the direction he’d like the team to take, but the sheer probability of such a trade on the level as the Carter and Gaborik trades appears to be unlikely – and that goes for many NHL teams.

“When you look at the names a year later and take the emotion out of it – I told you that before, go back three or four years – there have only been three deals that have really been game-changers,” he said. “But you run across the ticker and fourth-line guys become Gordie Howe.”

Two of the game-changers referenced were by his own involvement in Carter and Gaborik – the Kings averaged .56 more goals per game in the playoffs than the regular season in 2011-12 and .96 more goals per game in the 2013-14 playoffs – as well as the Pittsburgh Penguins’ acquisition of Marian Hossa in 2008. He made similar remarks last year at the trading deadline.

Lombardi also acknowledged last year that a dangerous market exists at the deadline; he even borrowed from Gordon Gekko by saying “I look at 100 deals a day, I choose one.” Teams understand that expiring contracts make player rentals dicey because they’re still on the hook to ice a competitive team for the following season, and exchanging assets for a rental is a risky move.

“The problem is, too, in most cases, the sellers don’t get their best price until [later],” he said. “How many deals are made, it’s a lot like ‘I’ve got a second now, I’ll get a first later.’ That’s kind of the way it always plays out.”

That said, the Kings have been a busy deadline team. They made a pair of smaller moves in 2010, bringing in Fredrik Modin and Jeff Halpern before making big splashes in 2011 (Dustin Penner), 2012 (Carter), 2013 (Robyn Regehr) and 2014 (Gaborik). Penner, Carter, Regehr and Gaborik all won Stanley Cups with Los Angeles.

As Lombardi noted, there are quite a few teams who view the upcoming month in similar eyes as the Kings.

“Everything right now – even the teams if they’ve got our situation – …other teams are also kind of in the same boat, right?” Lombardi said. “They don’t know if they’re good enough to go for it. So even the teams that are in, you’ve got the teams that are on the bubble, thinking, ‘Should we go for it or back off?’ Like I said, the teams that are solidly in are doing that too. ‘Should we go for it?’ and ‘How much should we spend?’ I’m not the lone voice in the woods here when I say a lot of these teams are doing the same thing we are, that we don’t know what we can do because we’re unsure of the cap. It does put a chilling effect in some cases on the market, but I expect [that]. There’s not a lot there right now. Everybody’s kind of just checking in. ‘What are you doing? ‘We’re not sure. We’re not sure.’ ‘Well, stay in touch.’”

Because the salary cap is tied heavily to the Canadian dollar, which has fallen sharply, teams are exercising caution in personnel decisions (read here for more context). The Kings have approximately $60.2 million allotted to 14 players for next season, according to information previously provided by CapGeek.com, and will need to negotiate new contracts with a pool of restricted free agents-to-be in Tanner Pearson, Tyler Toffoli, Kyle Clifford, Jordan Nolan, Andy Andreoff, Martin Jones and Nick Shore, amongst others currently in Manchester. Players bound for unrestricted free agency include Jarret Stoll, Justin Williams and Robyn Regehr. This year’s salary cap is $69 million.