First-half stats give Kings hope and concern

Midway through their season, the Kings are perhaps the most hard-to-figure team in the NHL. They rank last in the league in goals per game (2.07) and fourth in goals-against per game (2.15). In terms of being terrible in one stat and great in the other, the only team close to the Kings is Minnesota, which is 29th in goals per game and sixth in goals-against per game. The Kings are on pace to finish this season with 176 goals scored and 184 goals allowed, which would put them in an extraordinarily strange place. Recent history tells us that teams that score fewer than 190 goals don’t make the playoffs. Recent history also tells us that teams that allow fewer than 190 goals almost always make the playoffs. So, assuming the Kings maintain current form, which statistic will win out?

Since the NHL returned from its lockout in 2005 — with offensive-minded rule changes and new scheduling — only six teams have scored fewer than 200 goals in a season. None of them finished higher than 11th place in their conference. The post-lockout low for goals was set by the New Jersey Devils, who totaled 174 goals last season. The last teams to score fewer than 200 goals and make the playoffs were the Dallas Stars (194) and the St. Louis Blues (191), both in 2004. Since the NHL moved to an 82-game schedule, no team has made the playoffs when scoring fewer than 191 goals. To get to a total of 191 goals this season, the Kings would need to average 2.51 goals over their final 41 games. Right now, they’re averaging 2.07.

The defensive side of things is much brighter for the Kings. Since the lockout, no team has missed the playoffs when allowing fewer than 200 goals. Minnesota allowed exactly 200 and finished ninth in the Western Conference in 2009. Before the lockout, though, and in an 82-game season, a handful of teams did allow fewer than 200 goals and missed the playoffs. In 2001-02, Edmonton allowed only 182 and finished ninth in the West. Will the Kings’ defensive success be enough to overcome their offensive shortcomings?