Many hockey followers believe that plus-minus is a flawed statistic, one that doesn’t properly reflect a player’s effectiveness, but if nothing else, it can serve as a comparative tool within a team. To that end, Jack Johnson has a minus-10 rating in his last 11 games. Over that same span, his partner, Rob Scuderi, is minus-7, Drew Doughty is even, Matt Greene and Alec Martinez are plus-1 and Willie Mitchell is plus-2. What does it mean? That’s open for interpretation, but after practice today, Terry Murray was asked for his opinion of Johnson’s recent overall play…
MURRAY: “His game has been OK. It’s been OK. It needs to be better. He was very good at the start of the year. There’s pockets in the games that we’ve played so far this year that he’s been very good, and there’s other pockets where his game has dipped. To me, it’s a young defenseman learning to focus and concentrate and give that part of it the best effort every night, every game. Whenever you lose that concentration for a moment, you end up with a goal like the one scored against with Calgary the other night. It’s a line change, it’s a breakout from behind their net, and you’re just not maybe quite focused enough to see that guy coming, although he’s coming at about 75 miles an hour. But that’s your responsibility. That’s the read you have to make as a defenseman. So he’s been great on the power play at times this year. A lot of his points have been special teams. Again, there’s a dip. We need him to get back. We need to up that part of our game, to be better, and he’s a big part of it.”
He’s been brutal more often than not over the past ten games or so… and it’s easy to make that statement because over that chunk of games whenever there’s been a defensive gaffe that bears spectator astonishment, it’s almost uniformly been good ol’ #3… just the fact. Doesn’t mean I don’t think he’s a tremendously skilled guy, but it does mean that I get that restless uneasy feeling when he’s pressured into making “the right play,” because he so ofen doesn’t.
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Marc Nathan Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 3:25 pm
@Marc Nathan, oops… often, not ofen
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BakoCAkingsCondorsGuy Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 3:32 pm
@Marc Nathan,
It’s interesting because the playoffs require that a team’s best players step up and be the best player on the ice. With the absence of Williams, there will be a lot of pressure on DD and JFMJ to do what they do best, move the puck and score. That means they will be taking chances–and, I’m okay with that…
Step up, JJ!
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tornado12 Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 4:03 pm
@BakoCAkingsCondorsGuy, what does the FM satnd for?
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Empty Netter Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 4:29 pm
@tornado12,
It should be “MF” and it means “Minus fifteen”
USHA#17 Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 3:56 pm
@Marc Nathan,
JJ is streaky. That might be OK for a lower top six scorer but its not OK for a defenseman.
He young and I expect he will improve a great deal. Just hope he riding high if and when the playoffs roll in.
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Hadley Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 6:18 pm
@USHA#17, Let us hope JMFJ improves a great deal. Our legendary coach, Don Perry, is known both for the Miracle on Manchester and for the Paul Mulvey debacle. But what historians overlook is how Perry gave up a young Larry Murphy and traded him to the Capitals at the beginning of the 1983-84 season. Murphy went on to become one of the best defensemen in the NHL and he was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2004. Perry was fired later that season and has not been heard from lately.
The JMFJ situation is troubling, to say the least. He certainly has the skills to become a good hockey player, but he has been a bonehead on defense for years now. He is at a minus 17 so far this season — an astonishing number for a player on a plus team. He is number 511 or so on the Kings’ all-time plus/minus list and is on pace to pass Mark Hardy as the worst defensive player in the less than august history of the organization.
So do you put him on the wing, do you trade him, do you eat his contract, do you send him to Manchester, or do you have confidence that he will put all the boneheadery behind him and become a defensive great like Larry Murphy?
Or is JMFJ doomed to a life of being another Matthieu Schneider — a big shot but a liability in his own zone.
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Ackerman! Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 4:01 pm
@Marc Nathan, I think “that restless uneasy feeling” is being a Kings fan!
I actually stood up last game and defended JJ to my section of Johnson critical fans (after the Flames ONLY goal). My point was there will come a day when JJ will win a huge game for us with his amazing skill set and then they will all be singing a different tune. JJ’s biggest sin seems to be that he’s not Doughty. Doughty is a extreme rarity and even he’s going through his growing pains. This is the “fun” of watching a young team: inconsistency.
Now that being said, JJ makes some really ill-advised pinches at the most random times and his lapses in hockey sense blows my mind. Hopefully all this criticism gets him to wise up…
Defense is hard. JJ has improved each season and will only get better. I watched Mitchell make a huge turnover as well last game: the Flames just didn’t convert. The Flames were hungry and physical and that kind of forecheck forces defensemen to turn it over once in awhile. Let’s remember that the Kings only gave up 1 goal in that game. I love our defense for the upcoming years. Nathan and I will tell you to be on the lookout for Muzzin!
Cheers everyone! Go Kings!
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G$ Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 4:32 pm
@Marc Nathan, Lately, I’ve been calling him “Give it up at the blue line” Johnson.
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EternalOptimist Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 6:46 pm
@Marc Nathan,
I don’t even bother to look at his +/- anymore… the puck just seems to want to go into our net more when he’s out there. But the mental lapses, lack of focus definitely don’t help. I’m guessing we will see less and less of these errors with each season which his +/- will hopefully reflect.
But he has shown that he is capable of being a top 2 dman with his strong playoff performance last year. Gotta bottle that up for the regular season
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luc20rules Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 7:59 pm
@Marc Nathan, I do not disagree that JJ make some really big mistakes from time to time, but he has reduced them by about 8 per year of experience. If that continues we will be looking at a guy that is challenging for the Norris trophy in about 4 to 6 years. I think at some point he will be consistently solid on D and add all star level offensive play. I see improvement every year from JJ so I can’t be too hard on him.
As for the +/- stat I think if you look at the career average of those that his is on the ice with and then calculate it all out it does mean something, but if you just put it out there I think it sometimes just doesn’t do a player justice. For instance players like Ivanans and Randy Jones were +/- anchors dropping the rating for all line mates.
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jason Reply:
March 24th, 2011 at 7:27 am
@Marc Nathan, anyone else notice how awful he is holding the puck inside the blueline in the offensive zone.. i think theres a hole in his stick sometimes
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Well I think that +/- CAN be reflective…but it’s not always an accurately recorded stat.
As for JJ yeah he really needs to smarten up, same with DD. Recently both of them have shown their youth and made some bad mistakes that have cost us a goal. It’s part of the learning process and all players do it. Unfortunately there’s no time for re-takes, and class is only going to get harder here on in.
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Haven’t the games been low scoring lately? And why do we always feel the need to rip our players? We score 3 or 4 goals we win almost every game. That should be our focus not JJ and plus minus.
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Empty Netter Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 4:33 pm
@Christian T,
Did you see on the calgary breakaway goal,how he was basically flat footed near the board while jokinen had speed to the inside?
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mrbrett7 Reply:
March 24th, 2011 at 8:18 am
@Empty Netter, Did you not see Handzus and Smyth play it incorrectly also? How many times does it need to be said?
I’ve played defense for almost 30 years now. It’s not just the defenseman’s responsibility. If the forwards don’t do their jobs correctly, then it’s almost impossible for the defense to do theirs correctly.
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CupRun2011 Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 5:00 pm
@Christian T, Very good point! If we score a goal a game more on average, we’d be challenging VAN and DET for top spot in the conference! I believe the “D” side is harder and takes a commitment from everyone to buy into the system, BUT we are in most games when we focus on the D. Because our PP and offense has taken a dip this year, it put more pressure on our D to be near flawless, so JJ and the other D are under the microscope.
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CupRun2011 Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 5:31 pm
@Christian T, To support your point, I did a quick check of all the games the Kings have been in and if they would have scored just 1 more goal in those games, they would have at least 19 more points or 107 points! Of course, this is all hypothetical, but let’s say they only scored that extra goal in half of those games…they would now be at 98 points and they could coast into the playoffs! Sigh…
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IMHO, it’s not a totally meaningless stat, but it isn’t a tell-all stat either. JJ has definitely let his game slip in the last month or so, at both ends. But, I don’t see him as a total liability like some people do.
I think he has skill and a lot of potential to improve both facets of his game.
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why is everyone picking on JJ. Okey he is minus 10 the last 11 games. A veteran player like Scuds is minus 7 but no one is picking on him to step up. So drew is even the last 11 games but no one picked on him earlier in the season. Drew is the “big” star player so we cant say anything bad about him, did Murray say that Drew has to be better after those terribel turnover he have had this season????? Did JJ say anything about the fans booing the team after a baaaaaaaaad game against st.louis??? No he said nothing, but Drew was whining all the way to a bar at Manhatten Beach, Drew was -3 in that game but no one said anything. JJ is a team player and signed a long term contract to be here so get off his back.
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Marc Nathan Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 6:15 pm
@andrefromnorway, Scuds wouldn’t BE a minus 7 if he were paired with someone other than JJ
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YoBro Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 8:15 pm
@Marc Nathan, EXACTLY
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DLB Reply:
March 24th, 2011 at 7:58 am
@YoBro, it’s telling that he wasn’t a minus player before that pairing.
rcinsc Reply:
March 24th, 2011 at 7:08 am
@Marc Nathan, If you watch that play against Calgary, ALL the kings on the ice were moving to one side EXCEPT Scuds. To my eye, it looked like Scuds is the one who missed the play, and JJ was in a position to try to get back. Some of the other goals while JJ has been on the ice, he’s had his man covered, and the shot comes from the opposite side. so the +/- isn’t always what it appears. That being said, hockey is a team sport, and they’re ALL responsible defensively and offensively. As has been said, if they scored more than a goal or two a game, one lapse defensively might not hurt so much.
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mrbrett7 Reply:
March 24th, 2011 at 8:21 am
@Marc Nathan, Perhaps JJ wouldn’t be a -10 if he weren’t paird with Scuderi…goes both ways. The very reason why the stat is meaningless.
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EternalOptimist Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 6:52 pm
@andrefromnorway,
Does DD actually go out drinking after games? That’s the second time I’ve heard someone mention a bar in Manhatten beach.
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mrbrett7 Reply:
March 24th, 2011 at 8:22 am
@EternalOptimist, Every player from every team does, and has for quite some time. These are 21, 22, 23 year old kids. What do you think they are going to do?
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jason Reply:
March 24th, 2011 at 7:29 am
@andrefromnorway, scuderi had the top +/- on the kings D before he was paired with johnson.. Its johnson and the chemistry they have
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Overall, I love our defense. It’s clearly the strength of the team.
I love Jack, but when it’s a tie game with under two minutes left I have the least amount of confidence in him than the other five defensemen. Willie Mitchell is the player I probably trust the most back there along with Drew. I really think Greene has played much better recently and Martinez has been impressive for a rookie. Personally, I feel that Scuderi has been playing with some sort of injury the last few weeks, but he is so solid.
I think Murray should expect more from Jack and hopefully he’ll play better the next nine games and some of those shots from the point will hit the net!
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JJ is great but it is true there were a few costly errors, and a few unlucky bounces. I have to say that I never feel like he isn’t giving 100%, sometimes he still just makes the wrong choice. I like his work ethic.
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Capt Jam Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 3:51 pm
@dolly,
Hello Dolly!
Sorry, couldn’t resist.
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TM is being very gracious by calling his game OK. It’s definitely trending downward at the moment, but the same can be said (albeit to a lesser extent) about Doughty. #8 had himself a brutal turnover the other night that lead a huge goal against. Just the way the puck rolls from time to time, although this is the time of the year where it can hurt you the most.
A little more instinct, a little less contemplation with the puck for the blueliners.
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hockeysureshot Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 3:54 pm
@Capt Jam, I feel with the lack of offense that too much is being asked of Drew. I have noticed that every time he has the puck two opposing players are draped all over him. Plus you can tell that other teams are really finishing their checks on him
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Capt Jam Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 4:18 pm
@hockeysureshot,
I agree, but with Doughty I would add that a lot of that pressure is brought on by himself because he’s had such a drastic dropoff from last season. He knows it. The coaches know it. The media know it. And, worst of all, opposing teams know it. It just makes his situation worse than it already is.
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DLB Reply:
March 24th, 2011 at 8:00 am
@Capt Jam, the dropoff is in points only. Other areas, no.
YoBro Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 8:17 pm
@hockeysureshot, If 2 guys are on him, someone is gonna be open, find him.
Go Kings
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Forget that stat, forget JJ. Lets talk about Smyth an how awful he is playing. Somebody please please ask TM what in the world is going on!!
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tornado12 Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 4:07 pm
@Jstin05, agreed. is he hurt? no jump in his game and seems to get pushed off puck easier than normal. I keep waiting for him to break out of his slump. A few games back he looked better, but the last few have again been subpar for someone of his experience and money he is making!
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hockeysureshot Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 4:12 pm
@Jstin05, I know! Dude looks old out there. Maybe he gets some kind of spark the last few games.
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I think JJ has a great game for the most part, I think many times he lacks the grit that he has displayed and that gets him in trouble. Too many times he’s is chasing the puck and not taking the body. There have been many times this season where I have seen 3 Kings around an opposing player entering our D zone and none of them knock him off the puck. I think the backing up into our d zone and letting someone skate in without getting hammered is a big problem for the kings still.
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Off Topic:
Doughty is British?
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BrokeKingsFan Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 4:10 pm
@Who knows?, seriously? Wow buddy, just become a Kings fan? Canadian sir, he is Canadian.
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Who knows? Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 4:15 pm
@BrokeKingsFan, No he said his father is from England and his mother is Portuguese.
And no I’ve been a Kings fan for a few years.. before Doughty…. before Kopitar.
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BrokeKingsFan Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 4:26 pm
@Who knows?, I guess I missed that one. My parents are Australian and I have dual Citizenship but if you were to ask me I would say Im American since i was raised here
D Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 4:12 pm
@Who knows?, and apparently terrified of birds.
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lowegirl Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 4:18 pm
@D, Ya so the guy will throw his body in front of a puck going a gazillion mph, but he freaks out if he’s too close to a pigeon?? LOLZ. That was funny…
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tornado12 Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 4:16 pm
@Who knows?, arent all canadians?
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Slim Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 6:06 pm
@tornado12, That’s weird.. I was born in England, grew up in Montreal
and have a legal alien in LA for 20 years.. So I’m not sure what I am?
But the reason I’ve responded here is that I have the same phobia to birds..I freak when they fly around me, so I get it..
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I’m usually very hard on JJ, but many if not most of JJ points have come on the PP which don’t count in the +/-. As bad as JJ has been on 5 on 5 he has been pretty good on the PP.
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Capt Jam Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 4:20 pm
@KC23,
Johnson and Doughty on the same PP unit can be as terrifying as it is thrilling.
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Dominick Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 6:55 pm
@KC23,
Exactly. I kind of laugh to myself when people use +/- as a critisism because there are so many other factors to consider. I like the +/- stat but not as an overall indication when rating performance.
Also the 5 on 5 doesn’t take into account the overall ice time involved in determining his 5 on 5 play (if that makes any sense?). With JJ, and DD the ice time is off the charts for those 2. Goals against per 60 minutes of play or GAP/60 min, and goals for per 60 minutes of play or GFP/60 min is a better indication.
It also doesn’t take into consideration the citicle nature of that ice time. Last minute, momentum swings, any other important time when they might need to stop 1 out of 20 scoring oppurtunities, but have a minus for the game because of the 1 they didn’t stop. Other plus players might be a plus, but are never on the ice for when the game is on the line.
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And let us not forget that the lack of team scoring means every error that leads to a goal is magnified, which is why we all notice any error by JJ DD or anyone else so much. If we’re up 4-0 against Flames, we’d care a whole lot less about where JJ was on the ice during that line change and how Jokinen got in behind him.
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puck handling. too many times has he lost the puck giving the other team a breakaway. but that could be caused by the predictable umbrella power play
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Worst D-man on the team. Not even close to being a Plus player at anytime in his career. I dont care how many points a defensmen can score, his number 1 priority should be defense, and it seems like he’d rather get a point that make a sold defensive play. It all started in Michigan, the coach let him do w.e he wanted because of his high skill level, which im not denying. But he was never taught how to play a solid defensive role, its a shame
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TOP 5 ALL TIME +/- Larry Robinson Bobby Orr Wayne Gretzky Ray Borque and Bobby Clarke
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Slim Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 6:27 pm
@Robert Beck, Paul Coffey?
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mrbrett7 Reply:
March 24th, 2011 at 8:42 am
@Robert Beck, Yup…and Wayne Gretzky, that all time great defensive forward he was…
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Still having not seen a good angle replay of the Jokinen goal, there’s no way for me to tell what exactly happened on that play.
It’s interesting that others on here were adamant that it wasn’t JJ’s fault, but that it was the responsibility of the forwards in that situation. Or that it was a team defense breakdown.
Clearly the coach sees it differently. He’s placing the misread squarely on JJ’s shoulders. Basically, as a defenseman, he has to make that read.
Here’s that thread if your interested in see what others had to say about it…
http://lakingsinsider.com/2011/03/22/tuesday-practice-update-williams-status/#comment-424042
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KC23 Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 5:54 pm
@wavesinair, It’s Zues responsibily down the middle, but JJ is the last line of defense. Both blew it.
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mcsorleyfan Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 10:18 pm
@KC23, I believe Smyth had some culpability as well… but JJ was last back.
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mrbrett7 Reply:
March 24th, 2011 at 8:36 am
@wavesinair, Watch the replay that Jim Fox showed (if it’s available)…showed it quite well. It was from behind the Calgary net, showed the entire ice.
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mrbrett7 Reply:
March 24th, 2011 at 8:39 am
@wavesinair, I should add, it was a team defense breakdown. JJ has culpability, absolutely, as did Handzus and Smyth.
Hockey defense is team defense. There is no one person, one play (like that stupid tag line they play). It’s a team game. One person cannot succeed without a teammate doing their job correctly.
Why? The game is too fast…you don’t have the time to do two jobs at once.
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I’m a HUGE JJ fan & supporter, but there’s no denying his VERY poor play recently.
What surprises me is that no one has commented that this poor stretch “just happens” to coincide w/ him signing that long term contract.
coincidence? I think not….& that angers me…
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I like JJ. I think he brings a good, tough game and blasts the hell outta the puck but his consistency is a little off. To me hes more of an offensively minded Dman. Whereas Mitchell and Scuds are more stay at home. I don’t mind that he’s aggressive offensively I just think he needs to find that balance point.
TM is starting grow on me lately. He no longer has that dumb look on his face when something bad happens. It’s more of a “boy I’d like to rip your head off and puke down your neck” look. Is it just me?
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I saw the yahoo feed of the goal and they showed it from low at ice level. Perhaps Handzus needed to be more present in the center ice area, but the way it looked to me, JJ should have been the last line of defense before Quick. To me there was one reason and one reason only that he doesn’t make that read………….. a lack of concentration. That Does concern me about him. It is also in my opinion (not speaking of JJ but aspects of the team) why they’ll tend to give up a goal after scoring one.
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Aww, the JJ apologists out in force like usual. Thank you for bringing this up Rich. Year after year he is our worst defensemen statistically, and the apologists bring up the same old argument every time. Oh the plus/minus stat is not valid, oh JJ plays more minutes, oh JJ has bad luck, oh JJ is matched against the other teams top lines, blah, blah, blah. Enough already. He is what he is. A gifted offensive player who lacks the on ice smarts to be a consistent reliable top defensive player. This year numbers.
Doughty +15 (in a seemingly sup par season)
Mitchell +9
Martinez +6
Harrold +3
Scuderi +2
Greene +2
Muzzin -2
Johnson -17
This is not a statistical anomaly. This is who he is.
His career
-19
-18
-15
-17
I see a pattern. He is not improving on an improved team.
Jack “Minus Forever” Johnson
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luc20rules Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 8:06 pm
@regulate, I do see your point especially since he is paired with Scuderi this year and should have rebounded to the plus area. I will say that if he wasn’t getting better the – should be increasing with his minutes right? If by the end of the year the +/- number is
-13 or better I would see his level of improvement as solid, considering his increased ice time.
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King John Reply:
March 23rd, 2011 at 9:38 pm
@regulate,
Hopefully JJ will gradually learn/absorb good defensive technique from Scuderi; otherwise JJ’s negative effect on the team’s GA and Scuderi’s +/- will remain high.
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Canadian King Reply:
March 24th, 2011 at 9:05 am
@regulate,
Totally agreed, well said. People need to get off Doughty’s back, he is a +15 not -17, that is a big difference for a reason.
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NOW IMPRESSED Reply:
March 24th, 2011 at 10:10 am
@regulate, I won’t deny your stats, they show the truth. But one thing I’ve also noticed in JJs short career. When the game is big, he comes through. I’m talking about the Olympics last year and the playoffs. Is that a coinsodence? And it is something you can’t teach to people, either they like the pressure and excel or they fold. So far JJ’s come through in the clutch.
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Doughty’s fat?
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I agree that Johnson hasn’t been great the last ten games but i can think of multiple games where Doughty hasn’t been good either but Quick bailed him out.
Doughty made a brutal turnover against Calgary that led to a great scoring chance but Quick made the save. Quick didn’t stop the Jokinen shot so Johnson gets the minus and Doughty doesn’t.
this has happened a ton of times this year. Doughty’s giveaway that led to the SH goal gives JJ a minus. Quick’s poor play against St.Louis gave Johnson multiple minuses.
Johnson still has quite a bit to learn but for the first half of the season he was having a better year than Doughty. he has tailed off a bit but his +/- isn’t a clear reflection on the total of his play because much of what he contributes he doesn’t get +’s for.
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How long is Jack Johnson going to be able to get the “Young Defenceman” Pass….He just signed his 3rd contract. If Jack wants to improve his +/- he needs to get his friggen shot on net!!!!!!! His defensive lapses are not going to improve!!!! He still makes the same mistakes he did in his first year, he’s paired with a defensive STUD in Scuderi, and he’s getting his big raise and contract for the next 7 years. We had a guy Named Lubo, that wasn’t going to shut you down, But got his shot on net….. AND we had this guy named Corvo who wasn’t defensive but had a cannon of a shot, and got his shot’s on net. Corvo had the same pedigree as Johnson, and could of given stick handling lessons to him. My personal opinion is that JJ has been as over rated as that other Johnson that got traded to Colorado….
With Scuderi anchoring our PK, how good is our defence?? Scuderi -7 in the last 10 games, PAIRED with JJ, Hmmmm, Johnson may have to look over his shoulder, Martinez is looking solid, Voynov is going to rack up points, Hickey MAY develope and Deslaurier could be better than Martinez.
How good is Fowler in his first year????
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This is what drives me absolutely crazy.
A d-man makes ONE mistake, and people are all over them about it. A forward makes 20 in a game, and nobody even mentions them.
Yup, a d-man turns over the puck (OMG, they are human afterall?????), and the puck has a chance of ending up in the net. But a forward misses a wide open net, makes a bad pass, turns the puck over in the neutral zone…but no, it’s still the d-mans fault, at all times.
News flash…it isn’t. Hockey is a TEAM game.
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The biggest issues I have are that he does not seem to be better on a improved hockey team. Year to year very little improvement form my view. Also as somebody else stated especially on the PP he usually goes for the big slapper and hardly hits the net. Its very hard to score or be a threat if you can’t hit the net. Couple that with the defensive lapses and its the same old story.
At the beginning of the season he was doing really well if he can get that game back then I will eat my own words but till then JJ needs to sit out a couple perhaps so he can get mad or develop some emotion and come back out and show that he really can bring it.
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Overall, I think JJ is most improved player over last year. But for the last little while, he definitely hasn’t been as effective on D.
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