What is the magic number of points needed to make the playoffs in the Western Conference? Right now, it’s on track to be 97. For a while, the Kings worked under the premise that it would be 95. That was reasonable, given that in the first five post-lockout seasons, the eighth-place teams in the Western Conference have finished, respectively, with 95, 96, 91, 91 and 95 points. Might it take more this season. Dallas, currently in ninth-place, is on a point-per-game trajectory that suggests a final point total of 96.8, which suggests that the eighth-place team might need 97. Now, the other side of that is that the number of late-season intra-division games — particularly in the Pacific Division — might slow that point pace. Starting tonight, the Kings would need no worse than a 5-4-1 finish to get to 97 points. I asked Terry Murray today if he had re-examined his 95-point projection…
MURRAY: “I haven’t looked at it that much. That’s the number that we threw out, back in the middle of January, when we started talking about segment plans for our team, going into that long road trip in the middle of February. We looked at what it took for the eighth-place team last year to make it, and used that as a start point. It’s probably going to be right around that number again. It’s just about staying focused on our own games, to make sure we’re playing the right way and get some wins put up, and then we’ll see what happens from there. You have no control over what’s happening in those other games.”
We need to win and we won’t have to worry about how many points the others need to get to the dance. Shoot the puck has to be the chant tonight. Pepper the goalie with pucks all night long
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Right now, 97 points would get you into a tie breaker for the 7th, 8th, and 9th spots. 98 would be needed to guarantee a play-off spot. The Kings are currently on track for 98 points. Too close for comfort, if you ask me.
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PRMan Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:19 pm
@Kostamojen,
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western/Pacific/Kings.html
89 is still remotely possible (0.0001% chance or something)
Most likely right now for the Kings to finish 8th is with 95 points.
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Dominick Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 6:01 pm
@PRMan,
I love that site. The projections are based on current winning % and the teams they would be projected to beat in order to achieve that point total. The % for 95 a couple of weeks ago would have gave us a 96% chance of making it. Today 95 points gives us a 62.6% chance.
Nashville with their schedule, and the teams they beat, really effects our position because if they gain a higher %, because it doesn’t take as many points from the teams ahead of us in the standings, and they gain ground on us at the same time.
The Ducks on the other hand can take points directly from teams were competing with, but it only helps if we stay ahead of them. Then the over all % to point total to make the playoffs would be less for us to qualify.
Hopefully Nashville starts to tank, but it is all about us doing our part, and winning.
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5holer Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 6:12 pm
@Kostamojen, Guess what? The number of points it takes to make the play offs is not important. Who cares what the projection is 95, 97, 98, or whatever, it is immaterial completely. You have to be better then 7 of your other conference opponents and that is the number, no less! LAK are assessed in the following manner by their fearless leadership/management team over the past few weeks, and I will paraphrase the excuses to lose here as follows: Provided Excuse #1- “we are not there yet”; Excuse #2- “young teams play better on the road because of the focus they have and the lack of distractions on the road”; Excuse #3- “It is very hard to make the play offs in the second year, because you are no longer that surprise team and other teams are prepared for you”; Excuse #4- “it is tough to win at home because there are too many distractions, so they tend to lose their focus on hockey”. All above courtesy of Mr Dean Lombardi and some have also been corroborated by Mr Terry Murray. Management has seemingly provided this team with enough excuses to Fail this season, especially down the stretch here in March/April. It is all Poppycock! It is absolutely baseless to say such demeaning things about your own team, paving the way to “allowable failure” in your own words! Where is the support of this teams vast achievements the last two years? This is NOT a skilled offensive team by any means. If anything they are Over Achievers completely in that regard! A bunch of 3rd and 4th liners making something out of themselves! The LAKs have 2 top 6 forwards and 10 bottom 6 forwards, with no top 6ers in the pipeline at the AHL!! As I recall this demeaning happened similarly last season when we were pressing for the 4th spot and ended up in the worst spot(#6) with a bad match up vs Canucks (#3)! You know the rest. If the management would insert their collective feet a little farther down their collective pie holes so that they could gag on them awhile longer(not being intelligible), and keep their mouths shut tightly, then the team might believe it can win and even better yet, believe it can finish and score enough to win. Since that is not the case and irresponsibility of mouth abounds, it is likely to bare fruit with the team seceding from contention and failing to score enough to win enough down the stretch, especially at home, just as Dean and Terry have explained to them and provided them with the 4 excuses to fail. We have prophets in the house and they are our fearless leaders! Don’t cry when it happens! Should they get in as a #7 or #8(not good enough!), when the Division was there for the taking, it will be a Shame! They will go out in Round 1 with a mere whimper against #1(Vancouver) or #2(San Jose). We would be lucky to get in against #3 Detroit, whom we can beat and score against as a #6 seed! Otherwise its curtains once again! Another sacrificial season at the alter of Dean and company! Anyone notice the frustration levels reaching a crescendo yet? All that barking at the fans for booing, what a big clue that was!!
I’ve said enough!
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HockeyNerd Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 6:36 pm
@5holer, So this team is overachieving BUT there is a serious problem with management.
It is bad when the Kings organization are prophets, but as fans let’s predict EXACTLY who we would be “lucky” to face and what would happen.
And the team shouldn’t be so upset with us for booing, because after all as fans we make SO much noise when the team needs to hear cheers the most.
If you’re frustrated, maybe you should look in the mirror to see the problem…..
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Off Topic, but I just heard the news of Matt Cooke’s suspension. Where is his owners statement about his players actions? If he wants to get rid of all head hits, why doesn’t he actually do something about it. Why doesn’t Sir Mario send a message to Cooke and every other player on his team, and in the league, by cutting Cooke right now. I don’t know if he could do that in accordance with the NHLPA, but he could announce his own punishment of Cooke and suspend him for the rest of the year including all of the playoffs, and possible the beginning of next year. Cooke is a repeat repeat repeat repeat offender. You want to send a message Mario, here’s your chance to put your money where your mouth is. Or just keep talking the talk and don’t walk the walk.
P.S. Do you guys think I wrote “repeat” enough times?
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HockeyNerd Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 6:03 pm
@CB14, If the league isn’t going to do what you suggest, why would the Pens owner. Hockey has by far, hands down the WORST image of the 4 major sports. Players sucker punch other players or swing sticks at their head and “it’s all part of the game”. Nobody cares. Well if we want to show people what the game really is instead of what the 11 o’clock news says it is we had all better START caring.
And BTW NHL executives when I say “START caring” I mean acts of violence.
Not off the wall statements made by General Managers.
Wake up, and realize what’s REALLY hurting our sport.
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the_guv Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 6:10 pm
@CB14, I’d be surprised if Mario did anything. He’s hasn’t taken action personally thus far, and I think that’s why his earlier comments weren’t taken very seriously. I agree with you though, he is in a position to take a stand and really make a point. Benching Cookie for the season would send a huge message to players and coaches, and perhaps internal discipline could play a role in curbing these types of plays. Something needs to be done.
P.S. I would’ve used one more “repeat”.
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“…the number of late-season division games…might slow that point pace.”
I think this is the key. I think it will slow down and 95 will still make it in. 96 at the most.
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Player-X Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:43 pm
@wavesinair, Last year the number of 3 point games after the halfway point or so decreased in frequency. I know it’s counter-intuitive, but I did a lot of work and the frequency went slightly down. This year it is up, since the halfway, very much so, and since in both years there were the same number of division games through the full season (of course) it would seem that the higher number of 97 is more likely in play. If I had time, the shortcut version for a quick look could be to calculate where the teams in 7th, 8th and 9th were at this point with 9 or 10 to go in the season last year, but that would not be anywhere near complete. (I would assume the schedule-makers intentionally bias toward more division games late-year, as an excitement builder, meaning probably that last year there were as many division games late season as is the case this year)
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the_guv Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 6:00 pm
@wavesinair, I think it will slow the pace as well. It’s also going to keep the race very tight.
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With the NHL’s absolutely insane system of giving away a total of 3 points in some games and 2 in others, even a psychic would be hard pressed to figure it out.
At this point I pay attention only to the games the Kings themselves play, otherwise I am going to drive myself nuts with who needs to beat who and is it going to go into overtime.
I just wish the NHL would come up with some, make that ANY OTHER system. The current setup rewards “exciting Hockey” OVER who is actually better. Not good.
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xeropoint Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:02 pm
@HockeyNerd, I agree with this. The points system aside, I’m curious as to why an overtime loss is favored over a shootout win in a tiebreaking situation. If the point of the shootout was to eliminate ties and determine a “winner” why would the league negate this by giving a losing team the advantage?
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Niko Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:53 pm
@xeropoint, That’s exactly what I don’t understand. Even though we have more wins (40) than both PHX and CHI (39) we are behind them in the standings thanks to the Bettman point. Add in now that our shootout wins won’t even count in a tie breaker is absurd. Like you said, losing in extra time is being rewarded while winning in the shoot-out is being discredited. Where’s the logic there?? When they determined a shoot-put is how they want to determine a winner, then they have to let it count as a real win!!
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Action Reply:
March 22nd, 2011 at 12:04 am
@xeropoint,
The point is to value games won by playing hockey, not penalty shots. It’s pretty simple. Just because we lose this tiebreaker with a few teams doesn’t make it a bad idea. The points system itself on the other hand…..
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CB14 Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:13 pm
@HockeyNerd, I wouldn’t even say it’s “exciting hockey”, if the teams are tied in the last 10 mins. of the 3rd then they always shut it down offensively. They just play to get to the O.T. to guarantee a point. Yeah the O.T.’s are fun, but the 10 to 15 mins. before that are usually boring if the teams are already tied. If the league changed the system to the 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an OT win, and 1 for an OT loss, then teams would play for the regulation win much more often. I think that’s the system you like as well and I completely agree with you. How one game can be worth 3 total points and the next be worth 2 points is beyond me. That’s Betteman for ya.
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Niko Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:56 pm
@CB14, You are right, some games being worth 3 when all the rest are 2 is ridiculous. I kinda like the 3 point system, but that creates an even greater disparity between 1st and and 8th. What I would like to see is 10-minutes of 4 on 4 OT. If it is still tied, then it is a tie game and each team gets a point.
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Player-X Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:45 pm
@HockeyNerd, I think what we want is the team with the most pacific division games left to go absolutely hot and win out, meaning they take points away from our competitors. Have to work this up later, leaving for game…
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Need more scoring?
Here’s a whack idea. put Harrold on D
And move DD to forward.. we know he has some
good puck handling skills…
I’m an Idea’s guy…
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John Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 4:57 pm
@Slim,
That IS pretty whack!
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Slim Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:01 pm
@John, It worked with BYFUGLIEN!!!
Just thinking outside the box..
Which TM never does..
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Player-X Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:45 pm
@Slim, Is that a power play comment? nyuk, nyuk
HockeyNerd Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:00 pm
@Slim, Not going to happen, But if we’re tossing around ideas just for fun why not just play Harrold at forward. Or move JJ up.
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Slim Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:03 pm
@HockeyNerd, I’d prefer Harrold on rather than Westy!
DD has better hands than JJ..
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xeropoint Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:08 pm
@Slim, Thats debatable. I think Johnson has the better hands but Doughty has the better head.
xeropoint Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:05 pm
@Slim, Or he could just score a little more from the blueline. Or the forwards can start doing their jobs a little better.
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HockeyNerd Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:08 pm
@xeropoint, I like your idea better….
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KingsFanFTW Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:13 pm
@xeropoint, LOL yea i know forward need to work harder they just not there
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Slim Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:43 pm
@xeropoint, But Mr. Point that would make too much sense
And be way to easy..
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We need to eliminate teams from the chase. A regulation win tonight makes it a 9 horse race. One of 9 will falter.
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wavesinair Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:27 pm
@jet,
Yes.
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crystal ball says, put the puck in the net
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HockeyNerd Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:02 pm
@jess, Crystal ball is supposed to tell us IF we will put the puck in the net. We know what we SHOULD be doing.
On second thought, knowing you you probably exempt TM from that, LOL.
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jess Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:09 pm
@HockeyNerd,
good points Hockey — I can’t do anything but wish for pucks in net and support the boys right?
It’ll be a nail biter:)
–GKG–
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Seriously, forget magic numbers. Forget bad officiating. Forget whether the fans cheer or boo. Forget whether you are home or away. Forget whether your opponent just played a back to back game. And forget whether your opponent is in the play off race or not.
Just play to win. Every night. No exceptions.
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HockeyNerd Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:03 pm
@Helvetica, Exactly. Count me in.
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Player-X Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:47 pm
@Helvetica, was your favorite player once Michael Pica?
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all i ever yell is ON NET ON NET>..and the occasional Damn it jack and what the heck are you doing Drew… oh ya and GET IT OUT…. CLEAR IT ……….use the Boards ……come on ……….WOOHOO KINGS WIN ………
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jess Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:01 pm
@David s., haha love it!
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xeropoint Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:06 pm
@jess, You love drinking early?
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jess Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:13 pm
@xeropoint,
Only right before important business meetings or operating heavy equipment.
All I know is, if we don’t get a win tonight, then we are in a world of trouble. I don’t want to say we’re done if we lose, but the phycological damage of a third loss at home may be too much to rebound from this late in the season. Other teams are gaining on us and surging. Tonight is the night to get the ship back on course and start rolling full steam ahead to the finish line.
Come on boys, play hard and win tonight!!! GO KINGS GO!!!
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ONe thing i know for sure about tonight is::
We can’t make cute plays
We can’t make silly defensive mistakes
And we need our goal-scorers to score goals..
Thing were missing lately..
This isn’t a slam dunk..
We have to work our tuchus off…
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we won’t make it if we don’t put the puck in the net.
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CB14 Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:20 pm
@jkking, That statement is 100% absolutely without a doubt TRUE! All you posters looking to start a disagreement move along. There is nothing to disagree with here.
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The one thing that always work is plain and simple shoot he puck and get the rebounds its boring i know but who cares just score i say cheering not boring when u get to see a score we fans dont care how u score as long as u score
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Keys to the game:
Watch your net
Don’t worry about scoring
If you are lucky enough to get a one goal lead, sit on it like a big fat spotted dinasaur egg for the last two periods
Full 60 of defense
j/k:)
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Slim Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:25 pm
@jess, Part of our problems lately is trying to hold
on to a 1 goal leads..And Calgary can definitely score..
So i think your keys might be a tad unrealistic..IMHO
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Slim Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:27 pm
@Slim, Nevermind I just released you were joking!!!
MY BAD..
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jess Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:29 pm
@Slim,
thought you knew my sarcasem better than that:)
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Slim Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:33 pm
@jess, My head is out of sync right now, sorry!
Real worried about the way we have been playing at home
and that Calgary has been known to give us fits.
Won’t happen again until it happens again….
Scot Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:31 pm
@Slim,
Change your name from Slim to Slow, immediately
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Slim Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:34 pm
@Scot, And your’s Scot to scoff..
jonsey Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:32 pm
@jess, Is that you Terry?
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HockeyNerd Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:53 pm
@jonsey, Not even remotely possible
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jess Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 6:00 pm
@HockeyNerd,
exactly –because he would not be kidding!
Off topic, but had to point this gem out..
Quote of the Day: (by some unknown commenter on TSN)
Regarding the Matt Cooke suspension today..
“They threw The Cooke Book at him.”
YEAH!
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jess Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:31 pm
@Scot, haha!
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Slim Reply:
March 21st, 2011 at 5:46 pm
@Scot, I don’t get it…
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Scot Reply:
March 22nd, 2011 at 12:48 am
@Slim,
Slick tongue, Slim
I liked this one, and ‘scoff.’
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The way the Kings have been playing at home, they’re going to need a PROCTOLOGIST, not a psychic.
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I am going to use my supernatural power to always guess the score wrong to hopefully inspire the Kings to score even more 3-2 Kings.
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Since I predicted, at the start of the year, 97 or 98, I have to go with 97. Or 98.
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