Will playing the percentages pay off for the Kings? Jonathan Bernier will get the start in goal tomorrow against Nashville, Terry Murray said today, largely because of his previous success against the Predators. Bernier recorded his first NHL shutout in Nashville last March 30, when he stopped 34 shots. Then, on Nov. 6 he stopped 25 of 26 shots in a 4-1 victory over Nashville and, on Dec. 18, he stopped 29 of 30 shots in a 6-1 victory. Bernier’s seeming invincibility against Nashville was broken, though, on Jan. 6, when he allowed five goals on 28 shots in a 5-2 loss. Jonathan Quick faced the Predators three times last season, allowed three goals in each game and lost all three, although he got a total of only five goals of support in the three games.
MURRAY: “When I was started this whole thing, at the start of this trip, I was thinking Quicker would play this one and get back home. When I started out on the road trip here, I started thinking about things and I checked with Krusher [communications manager Mike Kalinowski] to confirm some numbers that were in my mind. It’s too hard to go the other way right now. Bernier has played very well against Nashville. His numbers are really good. I have to put him in, just because of what he has done against this team.”
Also, Brad Richardson will return to the lineup tomorrow after a two-game absence and will replace Kevin Westgarth on the fourth line and skate with Trevor Lewis and Kyle Clifford.
MURRAY: “I want to play four lines tomorrow. (In) the last game of the road trip, we need some good energy from that fourth line tomorrow.”
I posted this on the last thread, but I think it’s interesting and encouraging enough that it’s worth posting again. Today on ESPN, there was an article posted for Insider members from Puck Prospectus listing the top 10 players in the league… a player “Power Ranking” if you will. Kopitar has been rising lately and today, rose all the way up to #5 behind D. Sedin, Toews, Stamkos and Crosby. Do we Kings fans even think of Kopitar as being worthy of being in their company? If we don’t, we should!
Here’s an excerpt from the article. The most important number below each name is the LAST number, which lists a player’s Total GVT, which is “The value of a player, in goals, above what a replacement level player would contribute. GVT aggregates offensive, defensive, goaltending and shootout contributions in a single metric.”
Rank Player Team Pos. Off./Goalie GVT Def. GVT Shootout GVT Total GVT
1 Daniel Sedin Vancouver Canucks F 20.7 2.7 -0.5 22.9
Daniel has been well-rounded in his pursuit of the scoring title, leading the NHL in both even-strength points (53, tied with Henrik) and power-play points (36).
2 Jonathan Toews Chicago Blackhawks F 13.8 4.6 1.9 20.3
Despite his towering reputation, Toews’ career-best in points is only 69, which he has already matched this season.
3 Steven Stamkos Tampa Bay Lightning F 18.7 2.6 -1.3 20.0
The Lightning remain one of the great turnaround stories of the season, but more important than Stamkos’ heroics is how they have controlled the play: they are second in shot differential (+285), up from 24th (-208) last year.
4 Sidney Crosby Pittsburgh Penguins F 15.4 2.7 -0.2 17.9
In many recent seasons, the player with the highest points-per-game has not won the scoring title: Mario Lemieux in 2001, Todd Bertuzzi in 2002, Peter Forsberg in 2004, Alex Ovechkin in 2009 and 2010, and likely Crosby this year.
5 Anze Kopitar Los Angeles Kings F 12.0 6.0 -0.4 17.5
Earlier this season there was a small “Ryan Kesler for MVP” movement. Kopitar can now be said to have out-Keslered Kesler, playing the same two-way center role (scoring, penalty-killing, controlling the play) with as much success. Kopitar for MVP?
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fsd1 Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 2:06 pm
@puddle, Perhaps the “Kopitar is lazy” comments will go away but I doubt it anyway. Nice post, confirms what I believe, that Kopi is well worth his salary and is close to becoming the top 2-way center in the game. Thanks Puddle.
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2hitnik Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 2:12 pm
@fsd1, I have never considered Kopi lazy, just unlucky. He has not been blessed with great wingers during his tenure here in LA. Now that has changed, as has his production.
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puddle Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 2:22 pm
@fsd1, Yeah, I read some of those “Kopi is lazy” and “Kopi doesn’t try on defense” comments from a couple weeks ago. I almost punched my computer screen. It’s bad enough that he’s under-appreciated by other fans or the media, but for us Kings fans to not appreciate what he’s become – well that just doesn’t sit well with me!
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HBFan Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 3:00 pm
@puddle, @puddle, Just imagine what his plus minus would be if he wasn’t playing such a lazy lackadaisical game every night. It might be in the hundreds. I guess the “Kopi is lazy” posters are unaware that you can overplay a situation and put yourself way out of position. I’ll take the ” Lazy Kopi” everyday and twice on Saturday
luc20rules Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 5:46 pm
@puddle, I have been stating the same with mostly the number point per game and +/- rating. I still think Kopi while having possibly the most skilled wingers of his time in the NHL. The truth is Penner and Williams on most top 5 teams are 2nd liners. Thats not a slam on them its just the truth Penner is big has nice hands, but has below average speed making him a problem on D, while Williams has nice speed and all around game he is a tweener that likely would be labeled like Penner a outstanding 2nd liner, or average 1st liner. In terms of top forwards I think both would rate out as a desirable 4th forward to have.
vicarious Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 4:42 pm
@fsd1, Funny.
Of course, we have others who believe Doughty is a slow skater; a flat earth society; those who believe you can see all the way to Russia from Anchorage, Alaska (members including the aforementioned group, of course); people who believe the Cubs can win the pennant or maybe the world series (I think beloved RH is one); and a group, including myself, who believed for many years in those mythical “playoffs” and now believe the Kings can one day win the Stanley Cup. Perhaps not in my lifetime, but what the hay.
Some of these groups are quite large in number. No point in getting too upset with them.
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luc20rules Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 5:55 pm
@vicarious, Did your doctor tell you not to buy any green banana’s, if so I am terribly sorry. I really think the Kings have reasonable designs on winning the cup. If not this year in the next 5 years. Just look at the teams play the youth maturing and the wealth of young talent in the minor and junior levels of hockey that can eventually be plugged in to upgrade or fill holes that may arise in UFA or senarios where we pay or trade heavy to get a super star level player to compliment Kopi, Doughty, and the emerging JJ.
Plus we have locked up solid players like Brown, Williams, JJ, Kopi, and RFAs Doughty & Simmonds I expect will be signed long term. The Cup or close runs should be coming every year for the forseeable future.
BobKnob Reply:
March 15th, 2011 at 12:37 pm
@fsd1,
I think a lot of it just has to do with the way he skates. He is smooth and at times it just makes him appear lazy. He definitely had his feet stuck in the mud a few games ago, though, so that was a fair criticism. Compare his skating to Alex Ovechkin, who never looks like he’s lazy just because he is a spastic skater.
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DesertKing Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 2:13 pm
@puddle,
The best part is he seems to be getting better with each game right when we need it during the push to the playoffs. If he continues thattrend or maintains the peak of it, we will really have a great shot at the Cup and Kpoi the MVP. Penner is only going to help Kopi improve both his game and his stats. Wouldn’t it be great if JQ received some recognition alos.
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Shotongoal Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 2:18 pm
@DesertKing, the thing that some who complain about Kopitar forget, is he’s still only 23 years old!! As long as the Kings continue to improve their abilities to get him winger help, he is just going to get better. The one thing I’ve really noticed about him this year is he seems to be more of a team leader then he was in the past. That will also improve his game, as he learns how to be a winner and carry a team.
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Shotongoal Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 2:13 pm
@puddle, not sure about league MVP, but he certainly should be a top 3 nominee for the Selke.
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HockeyNerd Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 2:44 pm
@Shotongoal, A Selke nominee who ALSO is getting a point a game is certainly an MVP candidate in my book. But I agree, the one I most want to see him win is the Conn Smythe.
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puddle Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 2:53 pm
@HockeyNerd, ^This
King Taco Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 2:34 pm
@puddle,
The only individual trophy I care if he wins is the Conn Smythe
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puddle Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 2:37 pm
@King Taco, I hear you!
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Dominick Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 2:38 pm
@puddle,
Great post! love the “out-Kesslered Kessle” line. Sad to say the player with the most points usually is considered the biggest MVP as far as the numb skulls who do the voting are concerned. There are those few exceptions where it would be considered criminal to not except some other contribution, but Kopi won’t even be considered by those who do the considering. Like you I would love to see Kopi get it, but I’d be surprised if he even gets consideration from anybody outside California. Of course if he has a MVP type perfomance in the playoffs, all bets are off.
I could see a Selke consideration though.
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puddle Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 2:44 pm
@Dominick, I’m hoping Kopi has his big coming out party in the playoffs this year. It’d be nice to see him get some Selke consideration as well – according to the d-GVT metric (the second number in that list of numbers under each name), he’s the best defensive forward in the game by a landslide – but I doubt he really gets serious consideration until next year. I hate to cry East-Coast bias here, but… well… it’s East-Coast (& Canadian) bias!! Ha.
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Dominick Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 2:47 pm
@puddle,
Would also like to add that I’m glad someone else out there looks at the GVT ratings. I thought I was just being a dork.
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puddle Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 2:51 pm
@Dominick, Hahaha! Hey, wear your dorkdom proudly! We dorks need to support each other!
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Dominick Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 2:52 pm
@puddle, Couldn’t agree with you more! LOL
Scot Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 4:08 pm
@puddle, @Dominik,
What a couple of dorks!!
Scot Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 4:10 pm
@puddle, @Dominick,
good conversation though. GVT ratings, new to me in hockey until today. (seen them in baseball, alot — WAR — Wins Above Replacement)
I am always quick to bash Westgarth and question why he is in the line up. So, feel I should say he has put together a few good games in a row and may have played his best two games (Columbus/Dallas). #GivingCreditWhereItsDue
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Shotongoal Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 2:27 pm
@2hitnik, I would agree for the 6-7 minutes of actual ice time he had! I do question the decision to drop the gloves against CLM though. The Jackets were dead in that game and they seemed to get a spark after the fight, in fact they scored shortly afterwards. That’s probably been my biggest problem with him this year, he has not used his physical style of play to change game momentum in the Kings favor, just the opposite usually….
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deelo Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 2:34 pm
@Shotongoal,
Westgarth was put out because Columbus’ prior shift Dorsett took a couple runs at our guys, and Doughty was run into the turnbuckle. He was sent out to cool the game down and he did.
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Shotongoal Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 2:39 pm
@deelo, well I disagree, because it didn’t have that affect, just the opposite. I know what you’re talking about with Dorsett and I thought Clifford should have went after that lil cheapshot artist. I understand what you’re saying about Westgarth, but I’ve just noticed throughout the season that he doesn’t have the positive influence on a game that he needs to have in the role he plays.
No problem with Bernier playing against Nashville. They seem to have Quick’s number. Let’s go for the road sweep, guys!
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Westgarth out, Richardson in….. TM says “I want to play four lines tomorrow”.
Speaks volumes.
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The problem, yes problem, is that Kopo doesnt shoot enough. He bypasses shots (with Penner in front) for a cycling option. The offensive centers in the league TAKE those shots, and even more so with Penner in front!
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puddle Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 2:29 pm
@Sy, Your name kind of says it all for me… “Sigh”
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Shotongoal Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 2:30 pm
@Sy, I agree sometimes, but I think its splitting hairs. I take it you are NOT refering to him as an “offensive center” because he doesn’t take those shots, but he is a point a game player, I would call that an offensive center! What he DOES do that most offensive centers don’t is play an outstanding two-way game….
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puck73 Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 2:57 pm
@Sy, You are right. Big centers like Eric Staal and Ryan Getzlaf definately take more shots then Kopitar. I wish he would shoot the puck more as well.
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Good things about our LA KINGS::
a] Getting Mitchell in off-season was a brilliant move
b] Kopitar is a bonafide Superstar.
c] Hanzues is a big time veteran that can score those types of goals.
d] Drew Doughty will win a Norris one day.
e] Williams is one of the best puck-handlers in the league
f] Our up- coming rookies are incredibly talented
And on and on..
Care to add any?
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HockeyNerd Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 2:55 pm
@Slim, How about “2010-2011 Stanley cup winners”?
Not saying it will happen, but that is what I would care to add.
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I just don’t think Kopitar is all that good of a hockey player……
Just Kidding!!!!!!!!!
I’ve been in bed the last two days w a virus so I guess that’s what happens.
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CanAm Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 4:30 pm
@number 6, Kopitar is a good hockey player. Great hands and now that he has some serious help with Penner’s acquistion, the offensive side is looking up. I see him still struggling on the D side though. Follows the puck and the third guy trails in behind him for a goal or forces a great save.
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number 6 Reply:
March 14th, 2011 at 4:43 pm
@CanAm,
I know he is. I was just joking.
You’re right too that having Penner makes a difference for him.
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