Playing the percentages, with shot attempts

Following the “shot mentality” theme of the day, Terry Murray talked today about his per-game goal of having at least 65 pucks put to the net in every game. That can include shots on goal, blocked shots and shots that go wide, the theory being that you can’t always control the number of pucks that go into the net, but you can control the number of times you try. Last night against Phoenix, the Kings had 36 shots on goal, 16 shots blocked and 20 missed shots, for a total of 72 attempts. (The Coyotes, meanwhile, had 39 total attempts.) After practice today, Murray went into great detail about his shot philosophy…

MURRAY: “You’re going to have shots blocked. Teams are playing such a structured, home-plate attitude right now. It’s hard to get the puck through to the net sometimes, but the most important thing is, if you’re defenseman up high or you’re an F3 shooting the puck, you want to miss that first layer, you want to miss that first guy that is coming out at you. If you can miss that first man, then you take the odds, you play the percentages. When you go back through the game last night, all of our chances, the real good offensive-zone time comes from just a shot mentality. You’re just putting pucks back at the net right away. That’s something that has been time-proven, where you keep putting pucks back to the net, and especially (against) goalies that are on a roll, top goaltenders in the league. You want to get them scrambling. You want to get the defensemen out of position and trying to find pucks. You just keep getting pucks back to the net, and the percentages are on your side, that it will find the back of the net.

“You break down, not the original shot, but you recover the puck and put that puck back at the net, and the percentages of pucks that go in… You (start) from that half-second after you recover the original shot, and the further out you go, to five seconds, the percentage of scoring a goal drops right off the table. If you get it in the first two seconds, three seconds, and you’re putting pucks back at the net, the percentage of pucks going in is incredibly high. I don’t have that percentage right now, I don’t remember it, but I’ve looked at this and studied this. That’s the whole (thing with) pucks to the net, no hesitation, rebounds. The fastest that rebound goes back to the net, the higher the percentage of it going in. People are out of position. Goalies are out of position. It finds the five-hole. I thought we did a real good job of that in some shifts last night, putting pucks to the net right after that original shot, and getting back to it. The goalie, give him credit, he made some very big stops. On the other side of it, we just didn’t have, in some cases, enough traffic.”

60 Comments

  1. brian spain says:

    Terry Murry sure seams to have all the answers…I don’t know why he can’t get his team to do theses things, How many teams shoot the puck back into the zone if it comes out…29, Kings don’t they pass it back and back up into there own zone and start there NOT GONNA WORK play, they have been failing at for a couple months now. Good teams slap the puck back in and touch and go after it like crazy. The KIngs coaches are a joke. I love it when they talk to the coaches during the game, they sounds like morons who don’t have a clue what they are doing. Dean Lombardi should have said, I was wrong in the way I talked about Mike Murphy, but his guiys butchered that call that broke a tie game, The ref in the far corner on the T.V. screen was looking right at the play, he should be fined $50,000 for being terrible. The leauge made a mistake, Own up to it. I wish Terry Murry would have walked out on the ice and made the ref explain what he saw. That would have been awesome. Murry sucks.

    [Reply]

    KC23 Reply:

    @brian spain, Coaches don’t play the game. The responsibility for this mess rest solely on the players not getting it done. I’m not overly thrilled with TM, but the puck stops at the players not the coach.

    [Reply]

    Erik4Kings Reply:

    @KC23,

    Its called quitting on your leader. I’m not running into a gun fight with a freaking pencil in hand…that is what TMs coaching is…

    He hasn’t taught the players to grow mentally, instead he has them playing scared hockey.

    TM has made excuses all season. When your leader does that eventually players will too

    -busy schedule
    -slow schedule
    -bad bounces
    -injuries

    Guess what this is NHL all other 29 teams deal with it. And when our players see and hear this from the coach, they won’t say it in the media, but in their heads they are busy pointing fingers and making excuses as well.

    [Reply]

  2. EmptyTank says:

    Eff the “shot mentality”… move on to the “SCORE mentality”

    36 SOG last night but only a couple of “OOhhhhhh!” moments for the crowd

    [Reply]

    TinaBeana Reply:

    @EmptyTank, this x 1000000000000000000000000000….

    [Reply]

  3. Dominick says:

    What are the percentages if you always take the puck to the boards on the forecheck? How about if you always take the hardshot from up high on the powerplay? What are the percentages like if the other team already knows the answer? Would you say good enough to lose 10 out of 12?

    [Reply]

  4. Kostamojen says:

    How about stressing “high percentage” shots. getting 72 shots every game from terrible angles just isn’t going to cut it…

    [Reply]

    cole Reply:

    @Kostamojen, exactly!!

    [Reply]

  5. Sydor25 says:

    Justin Bourne’s Blog: “Shoot from anywhere” philosophy an outdated game plan:

    Part of the reason for this trend in size is goalies don’t really do the whole “reacting” thing they used to do and generally play angles and more of a net-blocking style. Combine that with their emphasis on minimizing movement and there are just fewer bad goals being scored.

    Yet, coaches preach on.

    Essentially, throwing the puck to the net against most of today’s ‘tenders, when there isn’t any traffic, is a turnover. Hopeless shots are the equivalent of dump-and-chase in today’s NHL – why are you giving your opponent the puck for free?

    http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/37742-Justin-Bournes-Blog-Shoot-from-anywhere-philosophy-an-outdated-game-plan.html

    [Reply]

    Winecountryking Reply:

    @Sydor25, Nailed it! It’s a skill game nowadays. Why do you think Scotty Bowmen was so successful? He recognized the skill of his players. It does not make sense to me that a coach would establish a cookie cutter method when every individual has a unique skill to offer. I agree with this blogger. Coach the team around the talent rather than coach the talent around the coach.

    [Reply]

    KFII Reply:

    @Winecountryking & Sydor25,
    Lots of shots on net makes an exciting game to watch, and it does rattle the defence and creates chances, but I agree with you that it is a game of skill nowadays. If TM would “tweak” his game plan to include letting the guys get more creative out there, maybe they could score more goals, and improve on the PP.

    [Reply]

  6. kingsxstevenxkings says:

    Anyone wanna get cheered up a bit? Watch Randy Jones playing for the Lightning, this guy’s still terrible.

    [Reply]

    Ravens Reply:

    @kingsxstevenxkings, Come on the guy gets 5 or 6 goals a year, so what if he hands it back to the other team 7 or 8 times a game.

    [Reply]

    kingsxstevenxkings Reply:

    @Ravens,

    Haha oh my bad! I didn’t know he was such an amazing offensive threat! Lets get him back!

    [Reply]

  7. IceGuy says:

    It seems to me the Kings are now the hockey version of “Major League”s Cleveland Indians.
    So who plays “Wild Thing”?

    [Reply]

    Ravens Reply:

    @IceGuy, I guess that’s Clifford

    [Reply]

    Ravens Reply:

    @Ravens, we all know who play’s Willy Mays Hays….I’m just sayin!

    [Reply]

    Eberlin Reply:

    @Ravens, skilled guy with an ego problem? Nah, Kovi doesn’t play for the Kings.

  8. Christian says:

    Here is a more realistic take than firing the coach or GM.
    ANZE! Your our offensive star so put this team on your shoulders and make something happen. Everytime you do this not only do you score but we win. This is your time to be our star so as the saying goes just do it! And save all the he has no one around him talk. He either does or does not…

    [Reply]

    LW Anybody Reply:

    @Christian, I posted this earrlier, but apparently you should rea this now- http://insidehockey.com/?p=17146
    It’s an article about Anze, and about how it’s TM- fault that Anze isn’t stepping up more.

    [Reply]

  9. Ed says:

    I have no problem with having a “shot mentality”

    What the Kings are not doing anymore, is center lane drive. We play way too much in the perimeter of the attacking zone.

    If we don’t change back to having center lane drive, the shots from the perimeter will be very low percentage. Bad angle goals. Those will be few and far in between.

    When the Kings combine “Center Lane Drive” with “Shot Mentality” you will see the return of the Kings team that started the season.

    Time to wake up. The season is on the line.

    [Reply]

    Dominick Reply:

    @Ed, Funny how that has worked its way out of the Kings game. I guess the path of least resistance is easier. If the other team is crowding the middle you stay on the boards.

    [Reply]

    RiversideKing28 Reply:

    @Ed, I agree 100%, if a team forces you to the outside you impose your will, we never have people cutting into the slot, at the least you would pull a defender to follow you, creating a lane/gap

    [Reply]

  10. Osaka says:

    This goes against Murray’s whole line of thought http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/37742-Justin-Bournes-Blog-Shoot-from-anywhere-philosophy-an-outdated-game-plan.html

    [Reply]

    Dominick Reply:

    @Osaka, Alot harder to hold on and make a play then to just fire away without a purpose.

    [Reply]

  11. JackKent Cooke says:

    http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-kings-20110122,0,6837295.story

    Link to LA Times story citing sources that say the Kings franchise is being shopped. Kings TL issues a vague and carefully crafted response. Where there’s smoke….

    [Reply]

    Dominick Reply:

    @JackKent Cooke, Ducksfans were getting a good laugh out of the Kings being shopped during the summer. Apparently They didn’t know that just a little while ago Disney owned the Ducks before selling them.

    [Reply]

    JackKent Cooke Reply:

    @Dominick,
    Link to same story in LA Observed;

    http://www.laobserved.com/biz/2011/01/kings_up_for_sale.php

    [Reply]

    Dominick Reply:

    @JackKent Cooke, I haven’t seen enough info to agree with the rumors as to a possible sale. There was a slew of articles towards the end of summer, but those couldn’t be confirmed either. Wouldn’t mind getting TL to do an interview (wink wink) on the rumors. He did release a statement in the article, but it hasn’t been adressed to Kingsfans yet (I don’t think).

    JackKent Cooke Reply:

    @JackKent Cooke,

    TL could simply have said the Kings are not for sale.
    Instead he said, “We are neither looking at or in talks to sell. Very focused on the NFL.”
    ..neither looking at is not the same thing as neither looking for….
    To me this implies they have no offers on the table which doesn’t mean the team is not on the market

    Dominick Reply:

    @JackKent Cooke, It does remind me of DL making statements during the Kovalschmuck fiasco that we were out of it when in fact we were still very much ingaged. That’s why I’d like a simple easy to understand yes or no from the guy directly to Kingsfans.

    JackKent Cooke Reply:

    @JackKent Cooke,
    …wish they were “very focused” on the Kings.

  12. pat says:

    The first two months of the season we can beat anyone. Now we’re predictable in our play and the opposition is read us like a children’s book. What are the chances we can make it to the post season? At this rate we will challenging for the top 5 in the draft. Its really discouraging to see them lose. Something has to change and its not the line combinations every other game!!

    [Reply]

  13. kinginsaltlake says:

    I will not watch the game tomorrow. Not for reasons that you haters think. Due to the NHL restrictions and blackout rules we in Salt Lake do not get Coyotes games. Why I do not know. Center Ice is perfect except for this silly rule. They should blackout Avalanche games being that they show them on the local stations here. See I have no one who will listen to me. No one cares that I spent 179.00 so I can see ALL the Kings games, but no Coyotes. Radio works great, but you can’t beat HDTV, now can you relate. Kings players, coaches, and personal do not give a rats ass what we post on Rich’s blog site. Rich he cares and dude does a great job.I Always feel like I’m involved with the Kings and what they are doing on a daily bases. I’m a bigger fan today because being part of this community of friends and loyalest makes for some dialog that is uplifting and funny. In my fantasy world I think that some big wig in the organization is taking notice of my words and that my words of inspiration is getting through to the players. Who knows, all that I know is, you, yes YOU are reading this and for that I’m grateful. Let’s pull together here and root this team to a victroy, come Hell or High Water and let fate take over. Oh and about the Center Ice problem that I have, my solution is a simple one. Accept it and move on.

    [Reply]

    Cristobal Reply:

    @kinginsaltlake,

    Isn’t “acceptance” one of the 7 stages of dying?
    I feel for you. Sounds like you are getting the shaft on your CI package.
    Nothing will change unless you make a stink, so demand your money back.

    [Reply]

    Dominick Reply:

    @kinginsaltlake, I’ve got the same Center Ice issues and I live in So.Cal. For the most part everyone wants the same thing, but not everyone agrees on how to go about it. Not having an opinion defeats the purpose of being here. It’s here to make you think and learn and discuss. It does get a little too negative sometimes, but it’s up to you to choose what not to pay attention to.

    I used to make the mistake of labeling people as haters when they didn’t see things the way I see them, But now I know the difference. I just do my best to make my point, and leave it at that. The only real problem I have is that some fans can’t identify sarcasm.

    [Reply]

    KH Reply:

    @Dominick, I get a lot of blackouts being that I live in las Vegas and that goes for all sports and I can tell you that there is nothing more enraging than trying to watch a game and having it be blacked out. I feel your pain

    [Reply]

    lvkingaholic Reply:

    @KH, the blackouts you get must be from drinking………., or that i’ve got the basic package, and i’m a cheap bastard

    Kingsrule Reply:

    @kinginsaltlake, I moved to the bay area from newport beach and #1 I hate it here and I have Gamecenter Live and whenever the kings play the sharks it is blacked out and all of the sharks games are blacked out it sucks I feel your pain. I listen on ktlk I call it the pelosi franke doodd an reid station I hate that station but love to listen to Nick Nickson he is one of the greats.I plan on moving back sometime within the next year and going to some games though I have seen them when they play the sharks. I still have season seats 115 18th row miss them dearly.

    [Reply]

    Dominick Reply:

    @Kingsrule, My blackout games are Sharks, Ducks, Kcop 13, and Prime Ticket broadcasts. Sometimes they show, but I don’t know until gameday sometimes. Can’t watch on line either because of the local blackout. Too frustrating to figure out. Radio works, but only on the computer (go figure) because reception is so bad. God I miss living in LA. My only wish is that when I retire I can move to LA, apply to be an usher at Staples center, be working when the Kings win the Cup, and die happy.

    [Reply]

    USHA#17 Reply:

    @kinginsaltlake, I had SAT years ago that I registered to a town in the eastern part of the state. Got all the games. (billing went to my PO box)

    [Reply]

  14. crashin' da net says:

    Tm, this is pure nonsense. The more cheap eaasy shots thrown at the net the more easily it is gobbled up for a faceoff or steered to the corner for the Dmen. Why turn over puck possession for a 50/50 faceoff? Snipers find the soft spots around the low slot for the tips, one-timers, quick wristers. We do not have a valid strategy nor sniper. You keep making teh boys work as hard as they do trying to get your silly gameplan to work. It’s no wonder good players dread coming to the Kings. We got the right people for the wrong system. Now we have to live with it and the boys (and fans) are paying the price. But you are doing what you said you will do. It is DL pulling the strings.

    [Reply]

    Dominick Reply:

    @crashin’ da net,
    Too many fans can come on here and breakdown the Kings gameplan. Would it really be a stretch to think that an opposing scouting staff with video review, and a couple of days practice couldn’t figure it out too. All they have to do is copy 8 out of our last 10 opponents. TM has to change his approach, and get these guys attacking again.

    [Reply]

    USHA#17 Reply:

    @Dominick, I felt the team showed several new looks on Thursday.

    [Reply]

    Dominick Reply:

    @USHA#17, I have to admit thursday looked promising. Hopefully the results start coming soon so they can figure out what other changes need to be done next.

    crashin' da net Reply:

    @USHA#17, yes, they tried a couple of new things but alas, they take practice to the point of being instinctual. Nonetheless, they have to mix it up based on the opponents adjustment to there strategy. They have not done that to date. They must adapt or …….well we see the result. GKG! Revenge tonight!

  15. The Zamboni mechanic says:

    new ownership = new coach?….new GM?

    [Reply]

    USHA#17 Reply:

    @The Zamboni mechanic, This team is gonna build a football stadium. I doubt they’ll be sold any time soon

    [Reply]

  16. daniel says:

    Not sure if this picture has been posted, and feel bad for bringing it back up but it clearly shows what we already know. http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2011/01/21/kings-gm-dean-lombardi-has-a-good-reason-to-complain/

    [Reply]

    USHA#17 Reply:

    @daniel, Yeah perhaps Toronto did not have that view. Only thing I can think of. The views Fox showed made it look closer.

    [Reply]

    Dominick Reply:

    @daniel, “this little slice of vindication should make for a nice moral victory”.

    Doesn’t get him off the hook, but it does prove him right. Too bad the NHL can’t figure out how to get conclussive angles on pucks across the goal line, or above the cross bar.

    [Reply]

  17. USHA#17 says:

    Wow, brilliant, just brilliant. I never realized that the faster a team moves the puck and the faster shots get off the greater the scoring chance. Wonder if Detroit and Vancouver is aware of that.

    [Reply]

    puck73 Reply:

    @USHA#17, Thanx, I needed that refreshing blast of common sense this morning. Do me a favor will ya, email this to TM will ya, I think he could use this ! lol

    [Reply]

    USHA#17 Reply:

    @puck73,

    Only added this little upon reflecting on my first two years of watching Kings games.

    My contribution from the stands was screaming “shoot the puck” or telling my friends “the guy stinks, he never shoots!”

    I considered myself an expert having gained full knowledge of the game after watching less then six hours of live action!

    [Reply]

  18. Cristobal says:

    We’ve seen what results shot mentality produces over the course of two and a half seasons. It’s unpredictable and, like probability theory, leads to streaks you would think were impossible (flipping a coin and getting heads 16 times in a row really happens – sound familiar?).
    All TM’s experience has lead to a system as consistent as rolling the dice, or flipping a coin.
    But, maybe we’re on the verge of a long winning streak!

    [Reply]

    Cristobal Reply:

    @Cristobal,

    BTW – in the WJC’s Team Canada and Team USA peppered Benjamin Conz of Switzerland with about 100 high quality shots over the two games and scored a total of 5 goals against him.
    Even a high total of high quality shots doesn’t guarantee many goals.

    [Reply]

  19. Rainman says:

    Spoken like a true defensive defenseman TM. It’s pretty hard for Kopitar to score on the PP when he’s standing in row four along the boards. The Kings “Titanic” continues to spiral downward and the only thing left on board is Kool Aid! Thanks a lot Uncle Phil, Timmy, Deano & Terry. Bring on the NFL!

    [Reply]

    puck73 Reply:

    @Rainman, Dont forget about Ed Roski, he owns part of this team as well.

    [Reply]

    USHA#17 Reply:

    @Rainman, If they overachieved last season why would you expect a similar period where they underachieve…

    Kings hockey and hockey in general is game of extreme events that average out over the season. So this year the Kings may end up somewhere above 500 and 90+ points rather then at 101 points like last year. Its still better then where we were after that fire sale in the 90′s and the 2004-2008 seasons.

    [Reply]

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