ESPN.com’s Pierre LeBrun, one of the best in the business, unofficially kicked off the summer trade/free-agent season with a strong blog post today, including his thoughts on why the Kings are the “prime landing spot” for Ilya Kovalchuk…
Kovalchuk camp continues to gauge market
Incidentally, I think there is certainly interest on the Kings’ part, but I think the outcome will depend on three things: One, how widespread the NHL interest is in Kovalchuk, because it’s highly unlikely that Dean Lombardi will be in a bidding war. Two, how much the KHL is willing to offer up. Three, and not to be underrated, is whether or not the Kings will have at least a general feeling of how much money it will take to lock up Drew Doughty, who is eligible to sign an extension on July 1.
let the arguments begin…
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LBlocal Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 4:22 pm
@Belexes, and another polldaddy.com question.
“To Ilya? Or, not to Ilya?” (makes me ill, ya..)
go kings!
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LBlocal Reply:
June 18th, 2010 at 7:49 pm
And, then there is this:
http://blogs.northjersey.com/blogs/fireice/where_do_things_stand_with_ilya_kovalchuk/
“After years of losing in front of half-empty buildings in Atlanta, Kovalchuk wants to play for a winning team. Kovalchuk’s primary wish is to play for an organization with a chance to win the Stanley Cup, but that doesn’t mean that the team must already be a Cup contender.
A team that hasn’t won recently, but appears headed in the right direction and is well set up for its future would also fit that bill.
When you’re talking about a long-term contract, it’s not essential that the team is in position to win the Cup in his first season with the team.
Plus, as the Blackhawks—and the Flyers, to some extent—demonstrated, teams can turn around pretty quickly if they have some of the right pieces and good management in place already.”
Sounds like AEG is setting up for an NHL version of a “Beckham” type deal. Can I live with Kovi @ 10y, 6M cap hit ave?? (PLUS endorsements*) YES. I can. Can Ilya?
Personally, I’d rather have Malkin; but that rumor has been suspect for more than 2 years.
go kings!
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Doughty – I have to believe they think he’s going to get somewhere in Duncan Keith territory. Approx $7MM.
Bidding war – He might be “in” a bidding war — in the sense that he will make an offer that will get shopped — but I get the feeling Lombardi always has a number in mind, beyond which it doesn’t work for him — and int he case of Kovalchuk, that number is probably very low compared to the numbers we’ve been hearing. Having tried to run these numbers every which way, I don’t see how to make Kovalchuk work at more than $7MM (cap hit). And even then it gets very tight in 2011-12. Maaaaaaaybe $7.5MM.
A lot depends on things we (or at least I) can’t know, like how Lombardi feels about Marleau compared to Kovalchuk, whether Marleau wants to come here, at what price, etc.. To me, Marleau at $6MM makes a lot more sense than Kovalchuk at $7MM — in both cases I’m talking about a cap hit lowered by a front-loaded deal that dwindles down to nothing.
But what do I know? I thought we could get Williams for Calder and a pick.
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David Reply:
June 14th, 2010 at 7:38 pm
@quisp, Keith is only getting 5.5m a year
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Daymand Reply:
June 14th, 2010 at 8:12 pm
@David, i think Quisp meant Campbell
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Quisp Reply:
June 14th, 2010 at 8:48 pm
@David,
My bad. Yes, cap hit of $5.5MM and gets paid $8MM for the first few years (and then nearly $8MM for a few more years). What I meant to say was I think we’ll be spending in the Keith neighborhood, salary-wise and that the cap hit will end up in the $6-7MM range.
Doughty is favored by the oddsmaking people (whoever they are) to win the Norris, so that’s going to have an effect, too. I would imagine. Possibly.
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Dominick Reply:
June 14th, 2010 at 10:49 pm
@Quisp, What if the cap gets a $2MM dollar boost this summer?
Moondoggie Reply:
June 14th, 2010 at 10:02 pm
@quisp, I’ve never disagreed with you on anything but whoa….7mil for Dewey?? I agree, he’s a great defenseman and wholeheartedly deserves the Norris this year. But 7mil a season? For a 20 year old?? Yikes!
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David Reply:
June 14th, 2010 at 10:59 pm
@Moondoggie, I believe he meant a front loaded contract but the cap hit itself will be around Keith’s.
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JB Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 12:02 am
@quisp, I say get devious like Chicago did. 15 year contract. 1st 5 years at $10 million then going down to $5 mil. At 38 have it drop down again knowing he won’t likely play past 40 and then cap hit is down just below $7 mil.
If Chi and TBL can do it so can we. Blow a hole in the CBA before they fix it.
On top of that be extra devious. Give him a gentleman’s agreement (all verbal of course) that if in 5 years when his contract is going down and he wants to bolt for KHL and get some of that Russian $ LA won’t make a big fight. Just enough to make it look like we care. Not that LA can do anything about him leaving anyway.
Personally I like Marleau from the character/playoff experience better but judging talent ain’t my job. With Kovy AEG will earn the $ back for sure.
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Quisp Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 12:25 am
@JB, et al re Doughty
Well. As far as $7MM or whatever being a lot of money for a 20 year old, this is true. However, he has been stellar for two seasons, as a teenager, and I think Lombardi will reason that DOughty’s value will go up over the next seven years. I personally have no problem with him getting what Kopitar is getting, for instance. And if there is any player in the league I would give a 12 year deal to…
How about, 12 years, $78MM, cap hit of $6.5MM, structured as follows (salary in millions, each year): 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 7, 8, 8, 9, 9.
I think that’s perfectly reasonable and worth it.
(also, I think if he got a shorter term deal, say 4 years, $4.75MM/year; can you imagine how much he would command at the end of that? Much more than $6.5MM/year…I think it’s better to lock in the cap hit now. Try to get it down under $6MM maybe, Hossa territory; but lock it in)
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Kevin Y Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 1:14 am
@Quisp,
I really hate all the GMs trying to circumvent the cap by front-loading the contracts (Luongo’s “salary” is $10M next season, but $1M in 2020-’21 and ’21-22… if he’s still playing in ten years, he’ll probably be worth that $1M).
Luongo’s salary is $10M next season (his extension kicks in; 12-years, $64M), yet the cap hit is nearly half of that: $5.33M.
I think it’s fair. I don’t think it’s “right”, but if it’s in the rulebook, why not? If everybody else is doing it, why not?
I do think the next CBA is gonna have something to say about these “extra years”, like the salary in the final year of a contract can’t be more than $1M less than the first year. Something like that, because the Luongo/Pronger/Hossa “fiasco” from last offseason got much attention in the hockey world.
Couple years ago, DET signed Lidstrom (probably the best defenseman in our generation) to a 2-year, $14.9M extension, for a $7.45M cap hit. And Lidstrom was 38 for that first year.
Compared to what we want Doughty to receive, that’s quite a scary comparison. But I think if we can get him locked long-term for a $6.5M cap hit, I think we do it without hesitating. Especially if it’s 10 years (he’ll be only 21 years old at the start of the 2011-12 season, when this “extension” would begin). Getting him locked up through his 31st birthday would be amazing, considering what he’s done at 20 years old.
-J Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 5:57 am
@Quisp,
I can’t see how at this point you can expect doughty to command much more than a >6.5 mil/yr cap hit down the road, as if it’s a guarantee. For one thing, the highest paid D-men in the league aren’t much higher than that, coming in in the 7 mil range. With some creative contracting (assuming it’ll still be allowed in the next CBA) it would be front loaded and come in well below that. I also can’t see them back loading a contract like you suggested. Actually, i can’t think of any player that has had a back-loaded contract like that. Unless i’m missing something, (which at 8 in the AM my time is entirely probable) i don’t see much of an upside over simply paying him the cap average each year.
I think people on here so far are overestimating how much doughty is going to get. I’d be surprised if his cap hit comes in higher than Keith’s. DL is all about comparables and body of work. Certainly Keith is a comparable in that he is a Norris finalist, but he also has a longer body of work. Doughty had a great year, and has loads of potential, but he’s still got to prove he can bring it every year. I can’t see 6.5-7 mil being in the picture at this point.
My expectation is that Doughty signs a more age appropriate transitional contract, in 3-4 mil range that signs him until his last RFA year. Let him earn a huge contract then wih consistent great play- something he has the potential for but has yet to prove over the course of several seasons. At that point, if he is due the big $$$ because he truly is invaluable to the team, you work to sign him to a huge front-loaded contract, one that keeps a King for life if that is what is wanted.
Quisp Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 10:08 am
@-J
It’s possible, of course, that Lombardi will offer and Doughty will accept a four year deal at $4MM, which, if my math is right, would take him right to the end of his RFA years. This would of course make him an UFA at 25.
At which point — okay, let’s walk through the possibilities (I haven’t done this, so we’ll just see where it takes us…)
(1) let’s say Doughty hasn’t “panned out.” He’s very good, but not great, and certainly not a “generational talent” like everyone thinks he is. At 25, he’s worth a slight raise, maybe to $5MM. He gets another four year deal. Cost: $20MM. Add to this the cost of the first deal ($16MM), and you have $36MM for 8 years. Average cap hit: $4.5MM.
(2) Doughty totally craps out and becomes the Kings’ version of Denny MacLain. Lombardi has since been fired for drafting such a loser, and his successor (Rob Blake) doesn’t make a qualifying offer. Cost: 0.
(3) Doughty is Ray Bourque. After four years of Norris nominations and/or wins, he’s now better by leaps and bounds than he was back in 2010, and is the team’s de facto leader, if not the actual captain. (sorry, we can deal with the captain thing in another thread.) He will now, at 25, require that lifetime contract, and it’s very likely that the 2012 CBA will have closed the mega-term deal workaround. He will get a deal around $9MM/year for ten years. Cost: $90MM. Factoring in the first deal, that’s $106MM for 14 years. Average cap hit: $7.6MM (over 14 years).
Looking at these possibilities, I agree with you as far as it would be nice to keep the cap hit down around 5. I don’t think 3 or 4 is going to happen. But 5 would be excellent, in my opinion.
However, I don’t think Doughty’s agent is going to let him sign a contract where he’s getting $5MM 12 years from now (and this is why I back-loaded my original proposal). At 33, Doughty is not going to be a worthless old-timer, so you can’t do a contract where it starts high and then dwindles down to $1MM a year.
And you might be right also that Lombardi would rather have a lower cap hit ($4MMish) for the next four years and then a higher one after that, depending on how tight he thinks things are going to be over the next four years, compared to after that.
By the time the extension is being negotiated, we will know whether DD is a Norris finalist or a Norris winner. And that’s going to have a big impact. Especially since I’m sure DD’s agent will mention the fact that the only player ever to win the Norris at a younger age, and he was only three months younger, was Bobby Orr.
But I am getting ahead of myself. He may win it. He may not.
Frankly, I prefer the smaller deals, because then players don’t have to deal with the pressure of “the big contract.”
I just don’t know how that will play out in this case.
DLB Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 2:29 pm
@Quisp, I agree, there’s no reason he shouldn’t get Kopi-level money. He’s a Norris candidate/possible winner at age 20. My god.
I’d be worried about spending too much on other players, but not Drew. Lock him up.
garry Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 10:26 am
@Quisp,
I think buying a superstar is very dangerous! Be patient and let our youth mature and delvelop and if we can find a young talant at the right price then o.k.
54FIGHTING Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 3:02 pm
@quisp,
Yes and yes. You sign Doughty for long term and you do it fast. Keith or Backstrom type money. You mentioned it Quisp and I agree with the escalating salary (4, 4, 5, 5.5, 6…) that they should have done with Kopitar but if not – ok.
There are a few things that must be frustrating to a GM:
1) The draft is before free agency. This means that you need to have your mind made up or close to it which way you are leaning. Are you going for Kovalchuk/Marleau or do you need to look at Sharp/Versteeg or another deal on the 25th. I would hate to pass up a decent deal only to wait for July 1 and then miss out again, then you are looking later in July/August to improve your team and missed the 2 big opportunities. We’ll see what DL does on the 25th/26th.
2) This is good for July 1 and UFA’s but it would be nice to know for sure June 25th and that’s what the cap will be for next year and what you have to work with. For some teams this doesn’t matter since they have caps set already by owners but for others – Chicago included – this will make a big difference on what moves they make.
My biggest fear is that happens to the Kings and DL stands pat on doing trades at the draft with Kovalchuk/Marleau in mind and then come July doesn’t sign either. Then what? Right now I won’t accept a ‘we need cap space to retain our young guys’ song and dance. We need to improve the team and right now it looks like our only move is letting Frolov go. That doesn’t make us better going into next year (all you posters that are already saying this). I will wait until late September to make my final verdict but would hate to miss out on big time FA’s to hear that song and dance from DL. To me it isn’t much different than the ‘cap is going down and we need to watch our salaries’ stuff we had a few years ago.
For cap reasons you add pieces when you can and then cut or vice versa. You don’t fail to act because of the cap. You can make changes. In a year (when DD, JMFJ and Simmers need new contracts) you dump smaller salaries to keep who you want (read possibly Stoll, Green – unless he starts playing like a top 4 d-man, and maybe Quick depending on how the goalie battle goes).
Plus next year we only have these guys so far:
4 forwards: Kopitar, Smyth (last year of his contract), Stoll (last year of his contract), Parse (last year of his contract) and Brown (yes you can argue Simmer and others but they aren’t signed right now)
3 defensemen: Scuderi, Green and Drewiske
1 goalie: Quick
Can you tell that I want Kovalchuk?
After saying all of this I think the big unknown as far as contracts go is: JMFJ and where does he fit money wise? Is he going to be our Brian Rafalski? We’ll see.
Should be a fun draft in 10 days – can’t wait to go and see what happens!
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Kevin Hall Reply:
June 18th, 2010 at 1:27 pm
@quisp, Marleau can play left wing (Did that on the Sharks big line last season) and center. The Kings seem weakest on left wing. Beseides, Kovalschmuck is a selfish floater.
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I may be in the minority on this one, but I would love to see the guy in a Kings uniform. We badly need a player who is a true threat to score every time he steps on the ice. We don’t have one now, and we don’t appear to have one in the farm system. The price and fit have to be right – and it is quite possible they won’t be – but you just cannot ignore a talent like this if you are the Kings. Marleau is a great second option – but he is just that, a second option. Three years older than Kovalchuk, not as gifted, benefits from having Thornton as a linemate. I will not be the least bit surprised if Kovalchuk ends up somewhere else, and will be OK with it so long as we put our best foot forward and make a real effort to bring in a guy who in my opinion could take us a long way towards the promised land.
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mrk Reply:
June 14th, 2010 at 11:55 pm
@rick,
If you’re in the minority on this one, I sure hope DL is too.
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carol vadnais Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 5:26 pm
@mrk, Certainly, we will use the money earmarked for Frolov and put it towards Kovy or Marleau so the net expenditure should only be 3-4 mil more than what we were paying Frolov, whom I was never a fan of.
I prefer Kovy because he is more consistent than Marleau but I agree that if the amount of money moves to 2-3 mil between the two players, then Marleau is worth saving the dough.
As for Doughty, he is a generational player that you must sign now so he plays with the Kings for ten years. For 80 million, though, he can hire a personal chef and get in better shape.
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15 year, $100million for Doughty. Front loaded. $6.66hit.
12 year, $75million for Kovalchuk. Front loaded. $6.25 hit.
Get er done, Deano.
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Dominick Reply:
June 14th, 2010 at 10:31 pm
@Sam,
I hope your joking.I Don’t want us to be the next Islanders.Love DD,but no telling what Kind of shape he’ll be in,in 10 years,let alone 15.
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I’m still not sold on Kovalchuk’s value to the Kings -or at least his value in comparison to what it will cost, but it’s clear the Kings do need more scoring and if DL thinks he’s the right choice then lets go get him.
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For ~3mm less, I’d take Marleau any day of the week over Kovalchuk.
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David Reply:
June 14th, 2010 at 9:08 pm
@crashin’ da net,
For 3m less? Less than what exactly? 9 mil? I can see Marleau getting 6/year. I doubt Kovy will get 9 a year.
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I said before ..we need a sniper. kovalchuk is a perfect
candidate. Forget about marleu and trade brown …he is done.This team need real “C”.kopitar ,kovalchuk,simmonds are real force.I think DD would accept 5.5m .brown out kovi in
GO KINGS!!
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54FIGHTING Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 10:27 am
@flex,
There is no way DB gets traded any time soon. I won’t even mention the reasons why.
If you need to save that 3 million then trade extra weight in Stoll or even better – Green (I can’t see paying a #5/#6 d-man that kind of money even if he’s great in the locker room).
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We should really go after Parise. Tell Lamereillo we will help him free up some cap room so they can keep Kovi. Parise is a way more complete player and right there in terms of goal production. A better team player IMO.
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David Reply:
June 14th, 2010 at 9:11 pm
@kingfish,
“Parise is a way more complete player and right there in terms of goal production.”
Exact reason why NJ wont get rid of him.
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kingfish Reply:
June 14th, 2010 at 9:40 pm
@David,
right normally no way in hell they would, but if they really want to keep kovi, they have to make another move. it makes no sense have 2 top line LWs and they will need to free up cap. I aint sayin it would be easy but NJ has what we want and we have what they want D-men and a ton of D prospects. Im sure NJ wouldnt wouldnt be into a tuebrt or hickey but throw in Scuderi and 1 d prospect and a goalie prospect? zatkoff, jones??? Pipe dream I know but that kid (parise) is perfect for the Kings.
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number 6 Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 11:34 am
@kingfish,
Kingfish, I live in ny and have seen Parise numerous times on tv. So this would back up the first half of what you say… the guy is amazing, and negate the 2nd half… essentially no way in hell Lamoriello who happens to be extremely smart would give him up unless it was straight across for Doughty and a big asset or something like that. He wouldn’t even do it for Kopi and Scuderi and a pick imo. So…. nice dream.
the Russian looks too Risky, unless he Really wants to come to L.A.; let’s not get into a bidding war.
Just make an offer we’re comfortable with and leave it at that. Actually, I’d rather see Frolov [or Marleau, although I don't know his price] sign for, say, $5 Million, than to pay much more for a one dimensional player like Kovalchuk. He just won’t fit into our system in my opinion.
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flex Reply:
June 14th, 2010 at 9:02 pm
..what is your system? in more than 30 years kings history this team made cup final once ..when grez come over to change …the system.
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USHA#17 Reply:
June 14th, 2010 at 9:08 pm
@Real 9,
I agree. Russian Times reported his agent is talking to St Petersburg. I say let him go play on team Koba.
As Quisp pointed out it seems most scorers plateau at age 27, IK’s age.
Humm, an “aging” star who can’t decide if he will play 2-way hockey. Anyway with Chicago exploding its a whole new market out there. Patience!
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DellaNooch Reply:
June 14th, 2010 at 9:56 pm
@USHA#17, 27 years old is when they enter their “prime”, that’s a perfect age to pick him up.
With Kovy on the ice, we will not have to worry so much about the two way game, the puck will be in the offensive zone the whole time.
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fsd1 Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 8:45 am
@DellaNooch, Yes, with Kovi in the lineup we would now have a much more expensive Frolov. I dont think this team needs to worry about who shows up to play each night, let the khl pay him.
David Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 12:56 pm
@DellaNooch, Are you seriously comparing Frolov to Kovy?
DellaNooch Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 12:57 pm
@DellaNooch,
Kovy – 338 goals and 642 points since 2001
Fro – 168 goals and 381 points since 2002
The only thing comparable between these two are their accents, that’s about it! Kovy is a superstar, Fro is proving to that he cannot tap his own potential.
And I haven’t heard the Kovy doesn’t show up argument, but if it’s true, he’s top three in goals since 2001 while taking nights off…so if he didn’t take nights off, he would probably be number…how could argue against that potential.
Think the kings proved scoring wasn’t the problem In the playoffs it was defense look at the 3rd period lapse when the Sedin’s took over that is the problem watch the tapes the kings don’t need a big name free agent.
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fsd1 Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 8:46 am
@ducksuck, agree 100%
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puck73 Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 10:11 am
@fsd1,Agreed ! Sign Willie Mitchell to replace OD and Paul Martin to replace Randy Jones and watch the Kings be the most difficult team in the league to play against…this is a recording.
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i’d rather lock up our boys….ie jack and drew.
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1. Doughty will cost at least 6.5-7mm a year…agreed around the same deal as Duncan Keith.
2. Marleau is already making $6mm a year…he’ll net more than that in UFA.
3. Kings will not end up with Kovy; just can’t see Lombardi picking the home run threat when he can get “his guy” Marleau and overpay him to be underwhelming. Perfect followup to the JW debacle, and right when we’re just about done with the Alyn Macauley buyout.
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DellaNooch Reply:
June 14th, 2010 at 9:59 pm
@hiway39, Your first 2 points are good, your last one, not so much…I was surprised you didn’t bring up Cloutier while you were at it. I guess you forgot that we got JW for a guy that will be cut from EDM.
Marleau had a great season last year, can play both ends of the ice, and is a team guy. I still want Kovy over him, but he’s not a slouch of a second option.
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hiway39 Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 6:17 am
@DellaNooch,
Marleau had a great season when he was moved from C to LW and reap the benefits of playing with Thornton and Heatley. Remember, even Cheechoo was a 50 goal scorer on Thornton’s wing…this year? 9.
I’m just skeptical of a massively breakout season as the benchmark. Besides, we’re desperate for a second line center, and Marleau appears to be better suited as a LW now. But he’s also not the kind of gamebreaker who would give the others all kinds of room on the ice like Kovy.
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oldthunder Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 7:07 am
@hiway39,
Dont jinx it, DL might sign Cheechoo!
“there are people high up in the organization who view him as the missing piece in terms of star appeal”
This is the key. This is why Kovalchuk will be wearing a Kings jersey this summer.
The Lakers have Kobe, the Kings will have Kovy.
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mrk Reply:
June 14th, 2010 at 11:59 pm
@KingFanMGM,
That’s real clever. A good marketing campaign too.
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QUisp Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 12:28 am
@mrk,
Ooh. Kobe and Kovi. And don’t forget Kopi.
That’s good.
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Mugsy Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 8:31 am
@KingFanMGM,
So will Kovy be called the White Momba?
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DL has 1 more year left in his contract and if the owner wants a player with star appeal, then I think DL will have no choice but to make management happy. If it gives him a new deal he might just get it done.
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I knew this would be interesting. I dunno. Kovi is a marquis player, a great sniper, good passer and skater, fair on defense (notice I didn’t say good, I said fair which I think is giving him the benefit of the doubt) and certainly would be a welcomed addition to anyone, particularly a young team like the Kings who needs scoring. But at what cost?? Mortgaging their future?? I just don’t think he’s worth the cost it will take to sign him. However, I have infinite trust in DL. If he can be had, if the contract can be structured correctly, why not?
BTW, I love reading LeBrun. Rich, you hit it right on the head, he’s certainly one of the best in the business.
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Kovi will be a King at 8 mil… He loves LA and wants to play here. He only 27 and just sign him 5 years with 3 year option. He worth the money and star appeal he brings. Kopi-Kove-Symth line will be the most freed line NHL since triple crown line.
Drew should sign for say 10 years strating at 5 5 5.5 6 7 8 8 8.5 9 mil. Snce he is the next ORR in my book!
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LeBrun claims we have the cap space. Ummm, really?
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David Reply:
June 14th, 2010 at 11:04 pm
@ike, The Kings have one of the best CAP situations right now.
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EJ Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 10:31 am
@David, It’s not all about the 2010-2011 season. Be sure that you look at cap impact for the next five years. That’s what DL has to do.
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David Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 12:59 pm
@EJ, In a couple of years, smyths massive 6.5 mil Cap Hit will be gone. Next season, (or possibly sooner) William’s contract will be up. Plus, the Cap will go up next season and possibly keep going up.
Put Kopi and Kovi together with any other guy and those two will both top 100 points. Mark my words! Hey, regardless what anyone thinks of Kovi, you know it would be a lot of fun!
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Kingsfanone Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 3:54 pm
@Matt R,
I’m with you. Hell, I could play on their line and they’d still both score over 100 points, and no thanks to me either! It would not just be a lot of fun, it would be scary for the rest of the league. We’d have to find another “K” to play on their line so it’d be the “K Line”.
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Consider this: The last Kings’ player to score 40 goals (not 50… 40) was Robitaille in the early 90′s (1993 I believe). Palffy, Frolov, and a few others came close, but nobody made it to 40. I’m not saying that a bunch of goals from a single player should be our top priority, but wouldn’t it be nice just to be in the running for some of the hardware that they hand out in June.
As for Doughty, I think $7M is a tad much for somebody so young. But, with that said, look at Kopitar’s second contract. He’s making an average of what, $6.8M per season. If we want to lock up Doughty long-term, it may take that. Fortunately we don’t have to decide right away.
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DL knows what he’s doing. He’s a very smart GM, and he’ll plan the next 10 years out what the contract situation will be if he signs him to a contract just what the ramifications would be.
Him, and his “magic boxes” or whatever, will make the right choice. If Kovy is the best option available, and they could get him at a good price (whether that also means moving Stoll or Williams to shed salary) AND still have enough money for Doughty, Simmonds, and Bernier, he’ll be wearing…. OK, not #17 because Simmer has that (Simmer could wear the #57 he wore in training camp a couple years ago and give Kovy #17, although he has “team seniority” and wouldn’t have to give it up), but it’ll say “LA” on the front.
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Look at it this way…. could we be a year or 2 away from winning the cup like chicago was? they added marian hossa. bam. they won the cup. there in cap trouble now, but there ability to keep the core together is what they will do, then they’ll fill the role players. were at the point where- we have the team to make a big move, reach that cap cieling, get deep into the finals, and win that cup. take a chance at kovalchuk…. sign him at 8 million… no more, lock up doughty at 6 million, shed some salary, let the prospects come in and add a defensemen. boom if were in cap trouble, keep the core together: kovalchuk, kopitar, brow, doughty, johnson, bernier, simmonds, richardson. build around that. we need kovalchuk. hes the game breaker, he’ll take pressure off of kopitar, they can develop simmonds into a good goal scorer too. we’ll have one of thee best lines in hockey and the depth to win a championship from years on.
chicagos not going anywhere, they’ll be back next year.
dl will do it, hes been trying for awhile, failed on gaborik, failed on hossa, didnt get kovi at the deadline, hes got something to proove, and the ability to do it. winning takes money, you cant have a great team and not pay your great players
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number 6 Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 11:36 am
@brandyn,
No DL actually has nothing to prove
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or marleaus, but hes not as much as a game breaker, just a well rounded player
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Only if the price is right and I doubt it will be (Kovalchuk). I think Marleaus is a much better deal for the Kings.
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I want Kovalchuk! …….but I’ll be ok with Marleau.
I predicted last summer that we would trade for him with his then 1 year left deal. We needed a LW.. later that summer we got Smyth.
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I know Kings fans are dying to get Kovalchuk. I’m not sure I know why. Yeah, he scores goals, but he never does anything in the playoffs. As New Jersey how well that acquisition paid off this year.
But, regarding whether the Kings will get him, I see 2 reasons why they won’t:
1: The asking price will be way too high. When have the Kings ever spent more then $6M per year on a player, except maybe Gretzky? It’ll take 8-9M at least to get Kovalchuk. No way the Kings spend that much.
2: I believe Kovalchuk is more interested in returning to Russia then he is in playing in the NHL, and he might even take less money to go to the KHL then to say in North America. He played 4.5 seasons in Atlanta, which if anything tore apart their team around him instead of building it. He didn’t have a great experience in New Jersey. He’ll look at the Kings as just another Atlanta and will decide he doesn’t want to sign here.
I hope I’m wrong because this team really needs a bona fide goal scorer.
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Stop the Puck Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 10:16 am
@Paul From Oxnard,
LeBruns article answers both of your concerns…6 pts in 5 games in the playoffs, and very unlikely that he returns to Russia
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54FIGHTING Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 10:37 am
@Paul From Oxnard,
Did I miss something? You start by saying that you don’t know why Kings fans want him and end by saying that we need him?
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David Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 1:02 pm
@Paul From Oxnard, NJ got wrecked by PHI in the regular season before they even got Kovy. Kovy was one of the few Devils who actually showed up to play in the playoffs. The Devils losing to Phi has nothing to do with Kovy.
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DLB Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 2:14 pm
@David, Indeed. It’s always a weird proposition to me anyway to blame a series loss on a single player.
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Some things to ponder regarding his cap hit/cap in general:
1) Williams and Zus will come off the books, and most likely stay off unless Zus signs for less.
2) Stoll could wind up being dealt, which frees up another $3.6m.
3) Kovalcuhuk wants to win. He also wants a nice place to live for his wife and family(hint hint-Ryan Smyth anyone?). It has been widely speculated(sorry to use that term here) that his wife wants to live in CA, particularly the LA area.
4) Lombardi, like his counterpart Burke, has gotten pretty good at using the media to convey messages and for his own means.
This is obviously a shot across Kovalchuk’s bow, letting him know it’s likely he’ll need to sign a cap-friendly contract if he wants the California dream to come true for he and his family.
My advise for our GM is this: If you really want to sign him, make it a two-way street. Don’t expect him to take a huge salary cut just to come to LA. I’m sure he wants to play in LA. Lets show him he’s welcome here by at least offering him a deal that equates to his value.
His goal-scoring potential playing with Kopitar is nearly unlimited. And yes, he can be successful in playing in our system.
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Paul From Oxnard Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 9:35 am
@Ersberg, I don’t understand a few of the points you make:
1) Where does anyone have the idea that Kovalchuk wants to play in California? Has he ever stated such and I missed it?
2) I can see Williams being dealt but I don’t see Zeuss or Stoll going anywhere. Not understanding where Kings fans are getting those ideas from, or even why they’d want to move either of those guys? Zeuss should have won the Selke this year, and Stoll is one of the best faceoff men in the league. No way I want to lose either if I’m Terry Murray.
3) Even if Kovalchuk wants to play in California, he’d probably prefer to go to San Jose or Anaheim, teams with recent proven track records. And even if he did want to play in California, why would he not take the max contract available to him, regardless of where it is?
I think this offseason is going to be yet another “pie in the sky” summer for Kings fans, who will no doubt roast Lombardi when he doesn’t get the big names they think he will. It’s just not his MO or the Kings for that matter.
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Ersberg Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 10:38 am
@Paul From Oxnard,
1) I believe his wife made a comment in a Russian newspaper ages ago. It wasn’t directly linked the Kings, it was more of a comment based on lifestyles. That’s where the rumor of Kovy to the Kings originated from, I believe. I’ll see if I can find it.
2) Zus can take face-offs very well. As a fan, I see them being pretty much equals, in terms of roster spots. Kind of redundant having them both of them. Stoll is not a 1/2 center, regardless of what people may think.
3) SJ can’t afford him. They have to re-sign Nabby and Marleau(which they’ll do), plus replace Blake.
Anaheim doesn’t have a better track record at this point in time. They sort of missed the playoffs last season, their D is in shambles, and their top-6 has several one-dimensional, soft forwards. Also consider they have an internal cap, as well having to shore up several holes, and sign Ryan. They would have to trade Lupul, which likely won’t attract to many GM’s, and lose both Selanne and Niedermeyer. Even if they did, they’d need to replace Niedermeyer first, which will likely mean several million more added to their payroll.
Why do you say that? Gaborik wanted big money, and we offered him a deal. In addition, he was FAR more a risk than Kovalchuk will ever be. He’s not any better defensively, and lacks the size Kovalchuk brings.
Now that’s speculating. “Not is MO”? When did he ever say that?
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David Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 1:07 pm
@Paul From Oxnard, Dont forget that DL did offer Hossa a similar contract to what he got from Chicago. If the deal with Kovy comes down to the same thing that Hossa wanted (a guaranteed 100 pt team) then Kovy will take the deal since the Kings had 101 points last season.
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C’mon people, any level-headed Kings fan knows that whenever this team is the ‘front-runner’ to land a certain player…it NEVER happens.
I would love to Kovy here, but you don’t pay him more than players like Crosby.
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I am really uncertain about the Kovy-Marleau discussion. Both would certainly be strong additions, although in different ways.
Kovy has a lot of what we need, the sniper, true goal scorer ability. Marleau has done well in SJ playing with Thornton, and has good years prior to that. No doubt they would both help the Kings.
I have a feeling that Marleau stays in SJ, and I believe that is what he wants, although I suspect LA is good second choice for him. Kovy will test the market. Does he want to come to LA? I have no idea. Some have written that he loves LA, but I do not know if that is based in fact. I am clueless as to whether he has a strong attraction to this city or not.
If the decision came down to a minor amount, say as Quisp mentioned $1 million per year, I would have to go with Kovy.
I wrote recently that DL seemed to me more comfortable with a trade as opposed to a FA signing. After reconsidering, I think that was plainly the avenue that has been most open to him in past acquisitions. At this point, I would not be surprised to see a big signing.
Most importantly, retaining Doughty long-term is the priority, certainly, but we need a few key moves to take the next step. Giving up the possibility of acquiring new players so we can lock up DD is shortsighted, just as sacrificing DD to get other players is. I definitely try to sign DD to a long, long contract, 12-15 years. (Is there a limit on length of contract ?)
The DD contract talks will be very interesting. I will say this, if I were an agent representing DD, I would look for a 3-5 year contract for roughly $5 or 6 million per year. That would put DD up for a new contract at around age 23-25, when he will have (conservatively speaking) a couple Norris Trophy’s. Imagine what his value would be as a two-time Norris winner at the age of 23-25? DD could legitimately sign contracts at the age of 23, 27, 31, and 34, each one possibly setting a new standard. I would definitely think his agent will play that angle hard.
If I am the Kings, I try to sell DD on the fact that at the age of 20, he could sign a contract totaling $75-100+ million. The Kings will play the lifetime financial security card.
Certainly this will be interesting. Could DL “convince” DD of the need to be mindful of the fact that while the Kings are ready to open the vault, the more the Kings pay him means less chance to obtain the necessary talent to make the Kings an annual contender? Is that thinking too rose-colored?
I guess I would try to get DD to agree to a long term deal for around $5 or $6 cap hit, then see if Kovy or Marleau would come for around the same. Anything over $7 for either is just too much, and would eventually cause us to risk losing the ability to keep players like Simmonds, Quick, Bernier, etc.
The salary cap is certainly a difficult deal, and obviously each signing impacts what future moves can be made. I like it, it brings a different and complicated aspect to all of this.
One final point about the cap, and that is, if we are as loaded with youngsters as soem believe, that is a decided advantage in the ensuing years. If we can replace guys like ‘Zus, Smyth, Stoll, etc. with entry level contracts, we have more cap room.
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one things u guys failed to realize is that if Kovi comes to LA, he will get a lot more endorsement deals.
LA is a huge market thus will attract marketing $. It is the exact reason why lebron would consider NY not because of salary but what it brings outside of BBall.
so even if Kovi avg $6M in salary, he could prob fetch $2-3M in endorsements by being in LA.
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I wonder why all the focus on the Kings going after Kovalchuk when DL has strongly hinted that any player personnel moves could just as easily come from trades rather than free-agency? The Kings have lots of young talent, some with the Kings while others still in the minors or in juniors, and trying to trade Williams/Stoll for a star player isn’t going to happen because they’re both on the wrong side of 30. Why would the “Hawks trade Sharp just to get $4M in contract back with Stoll/Williams and, no, no GM in his right mind and who wants to keep his job is going to accept Huet in any package.
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Ersberg Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 8:01 am
@deadcatbounce, Because it doesn’t cost us any players to sign him? Not to mention he can score as easily as most of us drink water.
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deadcatbounce Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 8:20 am
@Ersberg, You’re right, of course, no players, but plenty of money. Maybe this is the way you win a cup, and with dynasties all but extinct in the post salary cap era that might be the way you want to go. The Kings can sell their soul for one year of glory, but then everybody will be screaming when they have to shed salary after hoisting the cup. Look at the teams who have won the cup post lockout. which ones have done so without putting their noses right up against the cap? Okay, maybe the Kings should go for it because without doing so they have next to no chance at a Stanley Cup. I don’t know. This is a really tricky issue here. It’s easy to spend money when it’s not yours, but do you want an awesome team for one year who is the favorite to win the cup or do you want a competitive team over time with a fair chance of winning the cup? Pittwburgh may not be able to re-sign Gonchar unless they trade Malkin. How does that help them? The Blackhawks woes have already been well-documented here and on other sites. Detroit is getting older and still has salary cap issues in an attempt to regain their past glory. Anaheim had to unload pronger to keep under the cap. So, will people think it’s worth it if the Kings win the cup and then have to trade Johnson, Brown, Simmonds, etc.?
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Straight to the Point Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 8:39 am
I just want a cup, ok. Just sign Marleau for 6 mil. and be done with it. We all know Kovalchuck demands to much money so just go with the cheaper option and sign Patrick Marleau. If we get rid of Stoll and don’t sign a superstar than we might not even make the playoffs next year.
Ersberg Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 8:40 am
@deadcatbounce, Those teams make it work besides, who cares? We’ll have finally won the Cup. I would Lombardi and co wouldn’t mind having cap problems after having won it for the first time.
Ersberg Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 8:42 am
@deadcatbounce, Who care if you have cap problems after winning the Cup. That’s the point, right? I think Lombardi and co wouldn’t mind having that problem after having hung an SC banner in Staples for the first time in their team history.
I’ll take that Chicago’s problem any day of the week, if it means hoisting the SC.
EJ Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 10:43 am
@Ersberg, sorry, but that doesn’t work. You blow your wad for one shot at the SC, and what happens when you come up a buck short? Then you’re forced to deconstruct and risk slipping down to the middle of the playoff pack without the cap room to improve yourself. DL wants to be Detroit West, and that’s what I’d like to see as well.
54FIGHTING Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 10:51 am
@deadcatbounce,
I understand your stance on Williams/Stoll but they are both in their late 20′s – how is that the wrong side of 30? Did I miss something?
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Ersberg Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 10:58 am
@EJ, Yeah, it does. We’re not a cap-strapped team.
-We lose of one Stoll or Zus after this season. Lose Stoll’s $3.6, and re-sign for half of what he makes.
-Trade or bury Williams.
-Fill out what’s left with kids that make the team. I.e. Schenn.
It’s not that tough to calculate. If you think we’ll be in cap-hell, break it down by player.
Rich’s original calcs were based on our current roster, which will likely change in the near future.
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EJ Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 12:33 pm
@Ersberg, okay, go ahead and add Kovalchuk and a puck-moving d-man for the 2010-2011 season. Then look beyond that and calculate what you’ll have to pay to extend Doughty, Johnson, and Simmonds. Looking forward to dumping Handzus, Stoll, and Williams? What if — and I realize it’s a big what-if — those players have great seasons? Do you let them go, assuming that younger, cheaper players will be able to step into your SC caliber team? Or do you have to sign one or more of them and make their sizable salary fit? What happens when you sign players right up to the cap and then experience a couple of long-term injuries? Now you screwed, cuz you can’t make any moves that involve salaries.
Sorry, but I don’t buy into nor condone the “one shot at the Cup” mentality.
Ersberg Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 2:50 pm
@Ersberg, All winning teams spend close to or up to the cap. I’m not suggesting a “one and done” scenario. I’m suggesting we sign Kovy long-term, like Chicago did Hossa. That’s all.
Williams won’t have a good year, he’s coming off a season-ending injury. He’ll be 75% at best.
It can work. All of the other top teams have made it work, so can we.
Stoll will be Stoll, and Zus will be Zus. What I mean by that is, we won’t be paying both of them a combined $7.9 come next season, regardless of how well they play in ’10-’11.
EJ Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 3:20 pm
@Ersberg, you said:
“Williams won’t have a good year, he’s coming off a season-ending injury. He’ll be 75% at best.”
This is not a given, unless you can provide me with a medical report stating such.
Ersberg Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 3:40 pm
@EJ, I don’t have to, I just think he will. It’s speculative, kind of like half of your original post.
David Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 4:18 pm
@Ersberg, If anything, Justin will start the season just like he did last season and then get hurt again.
Ersberg Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 5:44 pm
@David, Or..He’ll start the season not 100%, suck like he did last season, then get hurt again. I think my scenario is the most likely.
David Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 5:47 pm
@Ersberg, Actually, mine is more likely to happen since it is what happened last season.
quisp Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 10:22 am
@Ersberg,
not cap-strapped now, no. but that’s because we haven’t signed one of those $$$$$$ UFAs people are advocating we sign. I’m not against it. I might prefer Marleau. Or trading for Iginla. Or reconsidering Hossa. But once you pull the trigger on a deal like that, it affects everything.
Ersberg Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 1:07 pm
@David, No, it wasn’t, he was marginal last season, then got injured.
Ersberg Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 1:14 pm
@Quisp, We won’t be cap-strapped next season, either. Don’t think we’ll get a discount on Marleau, as the only discount he’s likely to give is to SJ. He has no reason at all to give us a discount.
Iginla is a bad idea. I once thought it would awesome to have him, but he’s in his 30′s and makes $7m/per a season. I’d rather have the ex-Atlanta captain for roughly the same, minus what, 5-6 years in age?
Our situation is entirely differently than Chicago’s. We’re not butting up the cap the year we sign said player, only having to part with core players the following off-season. The Kings have departures next off-season, which will make it easy for us to recover from any cap issues we’d face come next July.
http://www.kuriren.nu/nyheter/artike…icleid=5418170
Rich-
Who’s this Johan Fransson guy we just signed? I’ve never heard of him.
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mrbob25 Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 8:43 am
@Ersberg,
I believe we acquired his rights in the Norstrom deal and last I heard, we were supposed to sign him by June 1st, which we didn’t, or we would lose him to FA.
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Ersberg Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 9:31 am
@Ersberg,
That was a bad link, here’s the full link:
http://www.kuriren.nu/nyheter/artikel.aspx?articleid=5418170
You’ll have to have it translated, though.
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In my opinion, Doughty is far more important to the future of this team than Kovalchuk or Marleau. He’s potentially a once-in-a-generation defenseman, and the Kings should do everything they can to keep him for his entire career. Don’t get me wrong, either of those players would be tremendous additions to this team, but Doughty is a player you build franchises around, and if signing a big name free agent means not being able to give him a seven or eight year deal, they may have to pass.
I’d also like to see what exists in terms of trades out there. The Hawks can’t keep everyone they have. Why not try to poach a Patrick Sharp or a Kris Versteeg? Sharp especially, if for no other reason than he has 13 goals in his last 15 games against LA!
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so there is no animosity on the team and all superstars being equal, I hope we get Doughty Kopitar and Kovalchuk under contract for 6.8 mil each
Doughty is 20 and Norris ready, lock him up for 12 years at 6.8 a year through the lifetime of the contract. Sure he could get more, but the kid seems like he would rather win and put the pieces in place around him then try for a few extra million over a lifetime contract
Kopitar is still locked up at 6.8 for 5 plus years
Kovalchuk is a proven superstar. He should fetch 8 plus on a short term but he wants to win. At 28 a 12 year contract takes him into retirement. Front load the first 8, dwindle down the last 4 so if he wants to bolt for Russia in thetwilight stages he wont hurt the team as much.
that is one nasty trio. The thing that sets the Kings apart from others is our depth. We have Brown, Simmonds, JJ, and others that still have not reached potential but contribute in special ways and our cupboard is stocked. In the next 2 years we have MacCauley, Zues, Stoll and Smyth coming off the books and can distribute there 15 million throughout the team.
we are looking good in the salsry cap department, JJ and Simmer might have to take a shorter term contract until the above are off the books.
Our future looks bright and tis free agency and draft could be what makes us an annual contender or just a pretender
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deadcatbounce Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 9:53 am
@funky, They might not have to take anything if another team offers them a contract that the Kings can’t match because they blew their wad on Kovalchuk.
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#1 The CAP will go up.
#2 Front load it.
#3 There is enough space to sign Doughty JJ and Kovalchuck; CAP for 2011-2012 is like $26MM so we have PLENTY of space coming up.
#4 We don’t have to lose anything as in a trade.
#5 Sniper; Cammy went on to be arguably the MVP of the playoffs. JT won for political reasons.
#6 Star power; teams that are scary have multiple threats -who are ours?
#7 Kovalchuck!
#8 We’ve waited long enough.
#9 Don’t cheap out on us.
#10 Risk more gain more, risk little gain litte.
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EJ Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 10:48 am
@Adam, sorry, but while Cammalleri was indeed a sniper, he was soft and a liability in the other 2/3s of the ice. Toews played the whole of the rink and deserved the CS trophy.
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Adam Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 11:58 am
@EJ, You’re right; guys that are 5′ 4″ are a little soft, but how about guys who are 6′ 5″ and soft (cought) Handzus?
Toews has no better than Kane? Why didn’t Kane win it? He had about the same number of points and more goals? Or how about Sharp? Or maybe someone who wasn’t on CHI?
The main point I made there was that a sniper would help the Kings.
Do you think that Kovalchuck and Cammalleri are at all in the same category?
Of course not.
Kovalchuck is an elite scorer who can get physical.
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EJ Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 12:38 pm
@Adam, oh I absolutely agree that Kovalchuk is a more complete player than Cammalleri. I was simply addressing your point about Toews winning for “political reasons”.
And while we’re talking Toews and the Conn Smythe, I believe that he was surprised that Kane didn’t win it. As he’s carrying the trophy back from the presentation at center ice, he points at Kane, implying (in my mind anyway) that it really belonged to Kane.
While a 40-to-50 goal guy would be nice, I think it’s more important to be sure that we have another reliable puck-moving d-man first.
DLB Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 2:23 pm
@Adam, If you’re dissing Handzus for his defensive capabilities…what?!
quisp Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 10:19 am
@Adam,
1) cap might go up. players will have to vote to invoke the 5% buffer. will they? hard to say. if not, cap stays flat.
3) $26MM in cap space, hmm? No. I have run these numbers several times (and probably will have to post them all, I can see now), but the bottom line is, if the Kings sign IK at $7MM, 2011-12 will be very very tight, but doable. Doughty, Simmonds, Moller, Bernier and Johnson is $18MM in cap hit approx, right there.
4) cap space is the asset in question.
5) Yikes. I don’t think so. Cammy’s shooting percentage was flying way above the mean; it was inevitable he would revert to the mean, and when he did, it was over.
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Aside from my view that you get more value for Marleau than Kovalchuk, there are two issues I haven’t seen brought up.
1. DL sold us on the idea that he was going to build a team from the ground up. We were going to draft quality players, bring them up through the system right and work toward securing a legacy. On the whole, we’ve done a good job (barring a couple of setbacks). Signing Kovi causes a problem for keeping our young talent in the next couple of years.
2. Kovi wants to play for Russia in the Sochi Winter Games. Right now Bettman is speaking very favorably toward barring any NHL player from playing in the Winter Games. Personally, I think Bettman should be shot. However, this is playing out to be a big factor in Kovi’s decision to continue in the NHL. If and only IF we did sign Kovi, he’s not staying past 2013. Being that Kovi won’t know whether Bettman has any teeth on this decision, he’s going to err on the side of caution. Free Agency in 2013 allows him the ability to jump to the KHL so he can play for Russia in the Olympics. If he were to stay (and if the Kings don’t win a cup) then it also allows him the flexibility to trade to a team more capable of winning the cup.
I don’t know guys… I don’t think its worth it to pay for him.
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EJ Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 10:51 am
@snbrdsummit, I too am very curious whether Kovalchuk will demand (and get) a No Movement Clause along with the big payday. If DL can retain the right to move him, then I’m less adverse to having the Kings sign him.
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As has been stated by DL recently, the Kings need to maintain what they’ve accomplished, and on top of that, improve their 5-on-5 scoring. He has stated that one important factor in accomplishing that is to improve the speed and consistency with which the defense gets the puck to the forwards during the breakout. I get the feeling that the larger priority in his mind is to acquire a reliable puck-moving d-man, rather than a big-money sniper.
HOWEVER, is there pressure from above to place a marquis
player on the Kings? An exciting, sexy scorer that can be marketed to the glitterati of L.A. That concerns me.
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A few of you guys reacted negatively to my suggestion (a few posts ago) that Kovalchuk would make around $9 mil next year. He has already turned down TWO deals that would have given him $8.4 and $10 mil a year:
“Can’t blame him, not after he turned down $101 million over 12 years ($8.4 million average salary) and $70 million over seven years ($10 million average salary) from his former team in Atlanta before the trade deadline.”
Again, I’m talking market value. I hope that number goes down and I hope he signs with the Kings but anyone who thinks he is going to sign for anything under $8-mil a year is dreaming.
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scvking Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 12:11 pm
@Daniel,
I suppose we can never know what the motivation is for a certain player. Did Kovy not sign with Atlanta because he didn’t want to be there? Is he turning down other offers that have come so far because he wants to weigh all the FA offers? Does he have a particular team that he wants to sign with who, up until July 1, cannot make an offer? I agree with what you have written about the offers, but we do not know why. Is he going to do the bidding war thing, or does he already have a destination in mind? If it is the latter, then maybe he signs for less than what has already been offered and declined. Does Kovy want a big salary or does he care to sacrifice $ to win a Cup? None of that is clear to any of us.
The Hawks situation with Campbell should be an eye-opener for organizations and players. Blowing up a team for one guy and one year is just crazy. Maybe a one-time deal is fine with some teams, but it is certainly not what DL has built here, nor do I think he blows it all for a one-shot season. Kovy may come, but not for the money that has been offered and rejected up to this point. The only hope is that Kovy wants to be here and is willing to take a salary that is responsible.
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Lloyd Christmas Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 12:18 pm
@Daniel,
I’m not so sure. As has been stated on more than one thread (to which I agree), Kovi turning down those offers may have had more to do with getting out of Atlanta than insufficient cash.
Short of signing on with a team that will struggle going forward, I really think he knows that a contract with a contender will have to be cap friendly. Or head back home.
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Daniel Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 2:48 pm
@Lloyd Christmas, One group no one brings up in these arguments is the NHLPA. They will push just as hard as his agent to make sure the max possible deal is done. They NEED guys like Kovalchuk hitting UFA at 27.
They don’t care which teams have caps issues and which don’t. They want their members to get the highest possible dollar amount. It’s in their best interest.
Trust me, I would love to see Kovalchuk with the Kings, along with all the other players we like.
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No one will pay more than 8! His average salary or cap hit will probably be less than 8!
Here’s a question, how would you guys feel about a one year $10 million contract?
It is a rip off, I know, but we would get the player we want, who cares about saving money -the Kings have been cheap-skating it for years.
They will save cash on Smyth in the next couple of years, even though his cap hit is higher.
We would have the money to sign who ever we want after the year is up.
We could still trade or dump salary Stoll Williams Smyth?
7 million with bonuses of 3 million?
1 million for 40 or more goals
1 million for 50 goals
1 million for Stanley Cup
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number 6 Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 1:14 pm
@Adam,
Where exactly have you found this particular idea that he would sign a one year contract. Not exactly like Hossa signing w the Wings (after winning the cup) for a year. I mean if the Kings had just lost in the finals then maybe. Otherwise, why would he do that?
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number 6 Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 1:15 pm
@Adam,
….. and why also would they dump Smyth? He was only like one of our three best forwards (if not two best) all year.
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Surly Jacob (JDM) Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 1:42 pm
@Adam,
Kovy can’t get performance based bonuses. Only ELC’s and players over 35 on 1-year deals can get bonuses.
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To those saying we should be pick up Parise, a couple points. No way NJ trades him, so I guess why even bother. We also have our own Parise waiting in the wings… and his name is Brandon Kozun. Mark my words folks, write it down, this kid is going to be a top NHL point producer at the NHL level. Ive watched this kid play live on dozens of occasions, hes the real deal. I saw an interesting post over at HF boards, it stated that in the last 10 years only 4 players have had back to back 100 point seasons in the OHL and WHL. Those names? Jason Spezza, John Tavaraz, Corey Perry and Brandon Kozun. I dont think he is a fluke one freaking bit. If Tyler Ennis can succeed in the NHL, and Kozun is just as fast if not faster than he his, than so can Kozun.
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number 6 Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 4:39 pm
@Mike,
Hey Mike. Thanks so much for this post. I Love posts like this…. not just cause they are encouraging but because it shares real experience. Nothing like seeing the player live, and Then backing it up with stats.
Personally I’ve never ‘gotten’ this thing about small players. Are they at a disadvantage? Yes, but I seem to recall that Butch Goring did alright. I mean, could he have done better (sarcasm?). Yes. But I’d take four Cups. Then Daniel Briere I’d take on my team any day. Theo Fleury, well he was particular as he played w such an edge. But there are others too. As I recall, size was even an issue wrt Cammi, but he showed in this years playoffs that he can produce not only at the big league level but when under pressure too.
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Kevin Allan also thinks he will be with the Kings. Me, I Kinda have to agree with Rich. I for one don’t really want us to get in a bidding war that would leave us with little or no wiggle room under the cap. Just look at the issues the recently crowned champs are already having as far as the cap next year.
As for the KHL, Kovalchuk sounds like he is leaning away from that.
2 weeks and what, 2 days and we will find out (I hope). One way or the other, this should be interesting.
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Trade for Briere!!!!
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Can’t wait to see kozun, kid looked amazing on the hitmen also I think an see ppl claim he better then 1 draft HALL, his size is was holds him back but look at Danny briere an cammy, small but fast!
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Lets do a little exercise.
For all of you posting against signing Kovalchuk, please post:
1)Who Lombardi should go after in UFA or trade.
2)What are we offering.
I constantly see the same people stating the same thing regarding LA not landing Kovalchuk. Lets see what you csn come up with.
NOTE: Marleau will likely re-sign with SJ, so he’s out.
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Joel Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 6:14 pm
@Ersberg,
#1: Volchenkov, Hamhuis, Seidenberg, or Michalek (Take your pick).
#2: Nothing.
Reasons: #1. The Kings were 7th in the league in scoring. That wasn’t why they lost to Vancouver in the playoffs.
#2. You still have the cap room to keep Doughty, Johnson, Simmonds, Bernier, and Handzus.
#3. You now have 2 legitimate pairings on the blueline and it’s a tougher matchup for opposing coaches who don’t wait for Randy Jones or Sean O’Donnell to exploit.
Kovalchuk would not be a bad signing, but it doesn’t address the real problems the Kings faced last season. All the Kings need is one stay at home reliable Defenseman to pair with Johnson and they will have the type of defense that Calgary was trying build last year…..And may I add again that it would be added to the 7th best scoring offense in the league!
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luc20rules Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 6:24 pm
@Joel, I have been thinking the same a #4 D-man is the more glaring hole on the team. If we can get to a point were DD – Scuds play 25 mins, JJ – Solid #4 play 23 mins, Greene plays PK mostly totals 15 minutes, that means rookie #6 only plays 9 mins.
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Joel Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 6:44 pm
@luc20rules, That’s exactly what I’m thinking. The Kings are actually in a good spot because the market is loaded with talented stay at home, shot blocking mentality, physical defensemen (what the Kings really need.) The Kings also need one more puck moving Defenseman to pair with Greene. We just so happen to now have a few of those in Manchester who will be competing for that spot.
My guess is that if we get a rematch with Vancouver in the playoffs next season with these types of changes, along with a fresh Quick or Bernier in goal (assuming Murray is a year wiser and doesn’t overplay Quick again), the Kings would take them in 6.
What’s also nice is that we wouldn’t have to give up anything in a trade or risk losing future free agents because of cap trouble.
I’m convinced the Kings just need a little minor tweaking to be cup contenders next season.
Ersberg Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 9:15 pm
@Joel, Seidenberg already re-signed for 4 more years. Volchenkov won’t come here, and DL won’t give him his reported $5m. Michalek is a possibility, but doubtful. Rumors of Hamhuis to VAN, so we’ll see.
I do agree we need an experienced, top-4 shutdown d-man, though.
I agree the Kings’ offense improved, but we also scored primarily by commitee. The issue with that is, an experienced team only need learn to play against our system and we get shut down. Why? Because we don’t have any explosive offensive threats, minus Kopitar(on occasion).
The Kings need an offensively gifted star, just like the rest of the powerhouse teams.
After viewing Capgeek, I’m actually more convinced LA can land Kovy without damaging our cap future. $7m per should do it.
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Joel Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 10:08 pm
@Ersberg, I seriously doubt Kovi will sign for a $7 mil cap hit. He made $7.5 last year.
Star players do not give discounts (especially stars who are 27, in their prime, and will never get another big contract like this again in their life.) Kovi will demand a salary at a $9 – $10 mil cap hit to stay in the NHL. If someone awards him that kind of money, do you think it will be Lombardi? I don’t.
Now if Lombardi gets lucky and somehow gets him for a $7 mil cap hit, then I would agree with going after him.
David Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 10:24 pm
@Joel, Actually his cap hit was at 6.4. The Kings could offer him a cap hit of 7 and front load it so he will make 9 mil this next season.
Ersberg Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 6:32 am
@Joel, His salary demands are hyped. Sure, ATL was desperate to keep him so they offered him a couple of ridiculous contracts. Keep in mind, he was the face of their franchise. He may very well have doomed that teams presence in ATL for leaving them.
Not many teams can offer him an $8m/per contract, except the KHL. Joe Thornton, one of the highest scorers since the lockout, doesn’t even make $8m.
Lombardi has experts in this are, and I’m confident he can get it done.
quisp Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 10:37 am
@Ersberg,
Sharks might sign Marleau. Depends on what Marleau wants to do, probably. We can’t really know how that will play out. But we won’t have to wqait long.
To answer your question, my idea was to sign Volchenkov (or another stay-at-home top4 d) and trade Williams and Stoll and a package of picks and prospects for Iginla. I know everyone thinks that’s crazy, so we’ll just leave it be.
to cover a bunch of ground people have touched on:
stoll, i agree (with ersberg) is tradeable. He’s not going to be a King when his contract is up, so it’s just a matter of when he gets dealt. schenn will be the #2 center in three years (or sooner).
williams is in a similar situation.
lombardi strongly hinted two things: that he was inclined not to sign a big defenseman, and he was considering trades as much as signings to fill a top six spot.
i think the candidates are Kovalchuk, Marleau, Hossa, Iginla, St. Louis, and — down the chart a bit — Sharp, maybe a Flyer or two. Briere. Something like that.
as far as whether the Kings’ problem is scoring or power play, or whatever. sure, they did fine numbers-wise. and it’s hard to argue with 101 points in the regular season, so a lot is working. but the kings do lack a sniper, and they lack timely finish. the fact that they did what they did without a sniper to me makes the prospect of getting one even more mouth-watering.
Whether IK is the solution or not, remains to be seen.
Last point: looking at the contracts going forward, it’s unavoidable that Williams, Stoll, Smyth and (maybe) Handzus have to be dropped either before their contract is up (i.e. trade) or when it expires. That’s how the whole cap budget works. Handzus might be able to sign on at half price. The others can’t stay.
Adam Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 10:34 pm
@Joel, The KINGS were dead last in the playoffs at 5 on 5 scoring. dead last. That is why they lost. They needed scoring threats. They only survived as long as they did cause of secondary guys who stepped up.
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Joel Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 11:19 pm
@Adam, I respectfully disagree. The Kings led 2 of the games in the 3rd period that they went on to lose. Moreover, the Kings gave up 17 goals in their last 3 playoff games. 17!!!! And you’re telling me that 5 on 5 play is the reason they lost?
Ersberg Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 6:27 am
@Joel, Their playoff 5-on-5 was horrible, even Jim and Bob talked about it between almost every game against VAN.
luc20rules Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 6:17 pm
@Ersberg, See link below look at the 4 young free agents whos salaries will triple, and tell me who they plan to keep and let go.
http://www.capgeek.com/cap_calculator.php?Team=3
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Ersberg Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 9:18 pm
@luc20rules, It’s misleadinng, since a lot of the kids are on two-way deals. It’s fairly easy to pay Bernier, DD, JJ, and co, when we can either not re-sign some vets, re-sign them for less money, send kids to the minors, or trade some for invidual players for lesser cap hit.
Signing Kovalchuk to a cap friendly contract is very, very doable.
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David Reply:
June 15th, 2010 at 9:27 pm
@Ersberg, Hes talking about the Sharks.
Ersberg Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 6:26 am
@David, No, he isn’t, he’s referring to LA. You have to filter LA Kings in the drop-down box on the site. SJ is the default team on the list.
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David Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 10:03 am
@Ersberg, You said the Sharks will most likely sign Marleau. He posted the SHARK’S cap calculator to show that the Sharks have young talent that need to be signed. So how will they be able to sign Marleau when Pavelski and co need a raise.
The sharks are not the default team, the Anaheim ducks are since its alphabetical. Plus, he specifically gave a link to the Sharks(Team 3).
Basically, you cant really say for sure that the Sharks will resign Marleau.
Ersberg Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 10:24 am
@Ersberg, I thought he was referring to us not having cap space to sign Kovy due to us having to sign some our younger players.
At any rate, Nabby will re-sign for less, they freed up a ton from Blake retiring. They can always trade for a replacement, rather than go the FA route.
It’s no secret Marleau’s wife loves the Bay Area, so it’s likely he’ll re-sign there, even if it means he takes a cut in salary.
I like it Marleau they same way Kings fans look at Brown. He’s a lifer. He won’t leave that team, bank on it.
Ersberg Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 10:25 am
@Ersberg, *look* not *like*.
Ersberg Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 11:13 am
@Quisp, Good post.
I’m not certain Volchenkov is Lombardi-type of player(personality, primarily), but his style of play is representative of the Kings’ play style. Ideally, I’d like to see LA trade Stoll for a d-man, but I haven’t come up with any ideas as of yet.
re. IK, sniper. H
He’s one of the most prolific goal-scoring snipers in the league, but I wanted to touch on one other element of his game that some fans may not know about: He’s also the type of player that can “slide” into slots creating chances, meaning unlike a Cammalleri-type sniper, he has the speed combined with size to get open, with the puck, and shoot all in one stride. Not many players can do that at this level. Ovechkin, I feel, is the best at this particular skill, that comes to mind. Kovalchuk is amazing at pulling the puck off the walls, turning, skating into an open space, and shooting(from an angle or from the slot).
We don’t have a player like this, and we likely won’t for another decade(or more/ever) if we don’t sign him. He’s the second best sniper in the..WORLD(behind Ovechkin)..let alone the NHL.
Re Stoll/Williams, etc..
I too feel they are gone, minus Zus. I think he’s proven more than his weight in gold and deserves at least 1-3 year deal, if he agrees to a salary cut.
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Barry's Mullet Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 12:58 pm
@Ersberg,
DL will try and sign Kovi but I say its less than 5% we get him at the price DL is willing to shell out. Kovi would be a nice addition but we have 5 or 6 other holes to fill to have a legit shot at the cup. And as mentioned, we still need to have the cap space to resign DD, JJ and Simmer.
As I posted several times, I would like to see the Kings move both Stoll and Williams to either of the cap strapped teams, i.e. Chicago or Phil and get a Carter/Gagne/Other or a Sharp and Versteeg/Other. We would probably have to take more dead weight, Huet, Boucher and give up some prospects but a deal can be made.
I rather take on two or three younger, bigger and experienced top 6 forwards than one superstar that can easily be shut down in the playoffs. And this still leaves plenty of room to sign that FA dman.
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obviously the first priority is signing doughty to a long term 6-7 yrs. i dunno about kovy. if we can get him and not cripple the franchise a couple of years down the road. i say sign him
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I THINK ITS POSSIBLE TO PICK UP KOVALCHUK AND STILL SING DD AND JJ AND BERNIER. KOPI IS LOCKED DOWN FOR A GOOD WHILE AND WELL I THINK OUR VETERAN PLAYERS WILL ONLY BE MUCH HELP FOR ONE OR 2 MORE YEARS . DONT WE STILL HAVE WILLIAMS AND STOLL?
QUESTION IS THERE A WAY WE CAN PICK UP KOVI AND STILL BE ABLE TO TRADE STOLL AND WILLIAMS AWAY FOR A GOOD PLAYER? AND STILL NOT BE A CAP TROUBLE ? I JUST KNOW NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS THIS OFF SEASON WE GOT A GREAT CHANCE AT THE CUP GO KINGS !
I KNOW SMYTH HELP KOPITAR ELEVATE HIS GAME BUT HE IS GETTIN TOWARDS THE END OF HIS CARRER I THINK . AND I WAS WONDERING IF ANYONE THINKS LAMBARDI MIGHT MOVE HIS BIG CONTRACT OR IS HE HERE TILL HE RETIRES?
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deadcatbounce Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 10:11 am
@Kings909, I’m still confused by everybody saying that the Kings should unload Stoll, Williams and Smyth, all of whom have big contracts and all of whom are on the wrong side of 30. What do you expect to receive in return for them? Sharp and Versteeg? Dream on! I’m confident that the “Hawks can get a package of younger players making less money than what everybody seems to want to unload on here.
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David Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 10:19 am
@deadcatbounce, They want to dump them to dump salary.
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deadcatbounce Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 10:57 am
@David, Yes, I understand that, but you’re going to have to find another team that’s willing to take on salary in return. Would that be Chicago? I don’t think so. I admit that the guys I mentioned might be able to fit in game-wise on some teams, but many teams are having cap problems and they wouldn’t fit in cap-wise. In addition, Williams is hurt more often than he’s healthy, so that would be a red flag for any club wanting to acquire him. As the Kings right now have few players who are willing to set up in the slot, it would behoove them to hang on to Smyth because championships aren’t won on the periphery. Stool is competent on the draw, but would this be enough for another club to swallow his salary? I think that if any trade is made involving these three guys there would also have to be a younger player thrown in to sweeten the deal. It might not have to be one of the younger guys on the roster now, but I think that Laktionov, Moller, Johnson, Hickey, etc., might also have to move.
David Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 12:12 pm
@Deadcatbounce, Williams and Stoll are not bad players, dont have these “big” contracts that you say they do, and are only 28 and 27 respectively. If Schenn is ready, then it makes sense to trade Stoll or Williams either in a package or for a pick. This also will free up cap space for DD, JJ, Bernier/Quick, and Simmonds’ extensions if we get Kovy.
David Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 10:19 am
@Kings909, What about Doughty and Simmonds?
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Ersberg Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 12:39 pm
@deadcatbounce, As far as dealing Williams goes, the SC hero returning to Carolina? It makes sense. $3.5 isn’t a lot to a team like the ‘Canes, especially if they don’t re-sign Whitney.
Stoll is an easy trade; EDM or PHI would take him in a heartbeat, perhaps even TOR.
I think we keep Smyth until he retires, barring he doesn’t agree to re-sign for significantly less money.
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Smyth really isn’t that old. He is not going to retire after the Kings. He will either sign a one year or a two year after. The worst part of that deal is that he has a 6.25 cap hit for the next two years. We would not buy him out. We wouldn’t. He went a long way to waive his no trade to come here and make a difference, and he did. Is he worth 6.25? No. But he isn’t being paid that much. He will make 5.5 and 4.5, right?
Stoll had a great year, and I don’t know why you all think he will be traded. He is small, but he had plenty of goals and was a nice PP man.
Williams picked up a lot of the free points on a line with Kopitar and Smyth, and never recovered from a terrible injury. He’ll be back next year on the second line and will get injured again, but he only costs 3.5, so who cares?
We have the cap space even with all of those guys to sign Kovalchuck.
When all of those guys are out in two years we can replace them and add even more, but still have Kovalchuck.
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USCG Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 11:20 am
@Adam, Thanks for bringing up reasons not to get rid of these guys. Especially Stoll and Handzus. What are people thinking? We’re NOT making the playoffs while getting rid of these 3 guys, no way. Further reason not to trade Stoll, As my second line center in NHL 10, he lead my Kings with 37 goals during my season
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Sign doughty in for a long time, i would like a gun slinger forward too, but kovy seems a little expensive, with that pay, id rather grab 2 25 goal scorers.
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it’s not our job to do all this math.when bruce got
grez nobady talked about afordability…
if we realy want to go to next level we need a pure sniper.The best way make some room …#1 is trade DB This guy is done.#2 is Green ..we need better d for that price.
We still did not get any explanation for original Cammi
trade.I think this the time for that “bold” move.yes,we have some good prospects,but nobady who can step up and liead this team to next level.
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David Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 2:19 pm
@flex, Stop repeating your nonsense, please.
When the Kings got Gretz, there wasn’t even a salary CAP to worry about.
Trading Brown and Green? Thats absurd.
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jet Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 4:24 pm
@flex,
it’s not our job to do all this math.when bruce got
grez nobady talked about afordability…
Maybe nobody talked about affordability because McNall could steal as much money as he needed. If only our current owner was a scum-sucking, thieving, lowlife.
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Adam Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 5:44 pm
@jet,
Brown hasn’t gotten better, but he hasn’t gotten worse.
He is a steal, himself, at a little over $3,000,000.
Nonetheless, I want to be the team that wins. I hate that no one cares about hockey, and that lame sports like basketball have teams like the Lakers who win every single time.
If the Kings get really good, the game will be more popular.
If the Kings sign a star, they could be the next CHI.
Remember, ATL kept IK in leiu of MH.
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scvking Reply:
June 17th, 2010 at 7:04 am
@Adam,
I agree with you about Brown. He is a steal (in a sense), a guy who does a lot of things for a fair price. He struggles finding the net, but he is playing a pretty strong two-way game every night.
What I do not agree with you about are your comments about popularity and the Lakers. I do not want the Kings to be the Lakers, or do I care about popularity. I believe that there is a strong connection between the “popularity” of the Lakers and the bad behavior that is omnipresent. I am sickened at what I see during Laker games, the constant whining and bitching that goes on throughout the games. The NBA lost itself when it became more popular. I could care less if other people like hockey or not. I am not a fan who feels that I need the support of others to confirm my interest in the sport. In fact, I would go as far as to say that I would prefer that hockey remains a niche sport; The purity of the NHL as compared to the “major” sports is one of the main attractions.
I want july first to come so all the rumors about the ufas be done already and i wanna know who were getting already and its going to be fun to see whos going to come out of training camp . ok for someone that knows about the cap taking your best guess on all the players that will leave the team and the players that we will end up getting from the ufas and trades can someone kind of guess at what the kings roster will look like ?
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David Reply:
June 16th, 2010 at 8:48 pm
@KINGS909, Punctuation. Use it!
There are many different line up possibilities for the Kings next season. Its all peoples opinions and what they think will make the team better.
http://www.capgeek.com/charts.php?Team=17&salary_cap_mil=56&salary_cap_thou=800
You can go there and mess around with rosters and see if it fits under the cap.
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kings909 Reply:
June 17th, 2010 at 2:24 am
@David, Thanks for the link. Ill just leave it up to the staff though lol. I just know this year we are making an impact .
GO KINGS!
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Here’s the deal folks. If we trade for Kovi and pay him a sizable amount of money and take a significant cap hit and not do well,,, all hell is going to break loose. If we opt out of the Kovi sweepstakes and go with a different plan and not do well we’re all going to speculate… what if we had Kovi. The point is is we’re not where the Blackhawks were when they signed Hossa or Huet. Going after this “piece” is riskier than it is sensible.
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Kev Hall Reply:
June 18th, 2010 at 1:25 pm
@Bonvivant1, Kovalchuck has always seemed to be a selfish floater who only goes hard when he has the puck. Big bucks for Kovalschmucks, I hope not.
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I think it will be a win-win situation if we get either Kovulchuk or Marleau. Both are great players and I think they will compliment Kopitar very well. Both of those players are Kings killers, and it would be great to get at least one of those guys in a Kings uniform.
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