Player evaluation: Johnson

A note, before we get to the evaluation. Today, Jack Johnson was named captain of the United States team for the IIHF World Championships, which open Friday in Germany. Kings defenseman Matt Greene is an alternate captain. More information on that can be found here.

JACK JOHNSON Johnson mug
This season: 80 games, 8 goals, 28 assists, 48 penalty minutes, 22:36 average ice time.
The good: Still only 23, Johnson took another step forward in his development this season. He stayed healthy for the entire season, increased his average ice time by more than two minutes per game and finished second among Kings defensemen in scoring. He also showed a tendency to rise to the occasion in big games, as he led the Kings in playoff scoring with seven points (all assists) and was a major contributor on the Kings’ successful playoff power-play unit.
The bad: Johnson has all the physical attributes needed to be a top-level NHL defenseman, but still needs to develop a bit in terms of wise, split-second decisions that separate a second-pair defenseman from a first-pair defenseman. Johnson can dominate games at times but make critical errors at others. While many dismiss plus-minus as an unreliable stat, it’s still worth noting — in a relative sense, at least — that Johnson was minus-15, and Davis Drewiske was the next-worst defenseman at minus-4.
Going forward: Johnson doesn’t have the NHL figured out yet, but very few defensemen do at age 23. He still has time to take that next step. The curious question will be, does Johnson want to take that step with the Kings? Due to be a restricted free agent next summer, and able to sign an extension on July 1, will Johnson seek a long-term deal with the Kings or a short-term deal that might allow him to explore free agency sooner?


59 Comments

  1. Aaron says:

    Very nice for Jack! That is awesome.

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  2. VanKingsFan says:

    Wow… captain. I could see him being captain of Team USA hockey in general for years and years to come.

    This guy has finally EARNED the MF in JMFJ.

    I cant wait to see this guy get even better in the future. I say this was the season we were waiting for and we should lock him up to a 5 or 6 year extension.

    Do this BEFORE you lock up Doughty. If you sign Doughty first, Johnson will want what Drew gets (i just think he is like that, although his cheap 2 year deal this year proves me wrong). If we sign JMFJ first then we can up it a little for Doughty.

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  3. Dan H. says:

    I give JMFJ a B.

    He was a C early on maybe a C+. During the Olympics I think Jack figured out what his potential can be and he brought it back with him and played out a great string after the break.

    I loved seeing him on the first PP unit with Drew and logging more minutes.

    I’d like to see him develop more of an edge and deliver the big hit once in a while like he did in college but his career is on the right track now.

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  4. Sebastian says:

    I see Jack as a core player with the Kings and would like to see him stay on the team for a long time. In the playoffs he proved to Murray that playing Stoll on the 1st PP unit instead of him was a terrible choice. Unfortunately, it took him until the playoffs to do so. He is a good player but has the potential to be great. Jack needs to improve dramatically on both ends of the ice and must get a handle on his horrible +/-. B

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  5. variable says:

    “b+”…

    as RICH pointed out accurately, jj, like many other kings, needs to be more consistent in his decision making skills…

    he really has all the attributes you want when looking for a young talent…

    you would have to believe that jack is one season away from joining the select few that are considered to be amongst the nhl defensive elite…at least, i do…

    if there was any testimony as to how far jj has grown from last year, RICH informing us of this latest honor…team captain for team usa…has to speak volumes…

    this guys can be for the kings next year what drew was for us this year…

    and i think that is both the standard and the expectation for someone of jj’s talent…

    [Reply]

    54FIGHTING Reply:

    @variable,

    I have to agree. Even though DL had some bad things to say about Michigan and how JJ started out he was right in his praise as to how far JJ has progressed and at least for myself expect him to continue to progress and become a 1st pairing defender.

    Contracts: I’m more worried about JJ’s than Doughty’s. If you give DD a Keith type contract with a cap hit of 5.5ish that isn’t that much of a raise from where Drew is now at 3.5 (I rounded up). That’s only 2 mil extra a year – not that big. JJ on the other hand isn’t making jack (no pun intended) and would be looking to be in the 4 to 5 million range also meaning his salary is going to jump higher than DD’s as far as the cap hit. I would love to give him Seabrook money but we’ll see.

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  6. VanKingsFan says:

    GM’s around the league would give their left testicle to have Jack and Drew on their back end. The only other young tandems that come close IMO are:

    Weber/Suter
    Keith/Seabrook
    Bogasian/Enstrom

    can’t think of any more right now…

    [Reply]

  7. Donald_S says:

    I disagree with many the plus/minus is a worthless stat. For one game or one week, I agree, but over the course of a season it is very telling. Look at Detroit. Who is their best defenseman by far? Surprise, surprise, Nicky is a +22. Jack Johnson has the skills to be an elite defenseman. But he is not there yet. He’s a ‘B’, with the potential to be great. Will he do that with the Kings? I doubt it. I think he knows this will be Doughty’s team in 3 years, and he’ll want his own place in the sun.

    [Reply]

    Mike L Reply:

    @Donald_S,

    So by virtue of +/- Mike Green is a Norris Trophy winner right? Last time i saw he was embarrassed in the playoffs and pushed around.

    In a way it’s helpful but you also have to look at who that Dman is playing with in terms of partner and forwards the majority of the time.

    [Reply]

    mrbrett7 Reply:

    @Mike L, Marty McSorely once led the NHL with a +48 one year. Wayne Gretzky one year in Edmonton had a +100 or so…

    It’s a meaningless statistic, especially when you spend much of your season paired with the likes of Randy Jones, Peter Harrold and Davis Drewiske. No offense to those guys, but a +/- is more of a team statistic than an individual one, in my opinion.

    If the goaltender lets in a bad goal, yet you did your job, you get a minus…so that’s a good thing? You get a plus when you had absolutely ZERO to do with the goal scored? How can you get more pluses when your playing with a completely defensive 3rd or 4th line?

    It’s a TERRIBLE statistic.

    All that said, I gave Jack a C+…to me, he can be MUCH MUCH better than he has shown. I want to see the man who played in the Olympics, on a nightly basis.

    [Reply]

    King John Reply:

    @mrbrett7,

    Some of the +s and -s you get because of other players end up evening out over the course of months, so I think there is legitimately some truth to the +/-. If you’re doing YOUR job, there still is less chance for the opponent to score in general. Mistakes will always be made by others, and I don’t think the same defensemen play with the same forwards on the team exclusively.

    Playing with the right defensive partner makes some difference in +/-, but not completely. OD has a great +/-, but when he played with JJ, his +/- suffered a little and JJ’s got better a little.

    Jack started the year with a horrible +/-, way worse than everyone else, but as he stabilized he stayed quite even, so I think his range stayed mostly between -12 and -18 and didn’t get worse. So his +/- will probably be much better next year.

    Handzus’s line plays against top scorers often, so maintaining his +/- at a high level is more difficult.

    So whoever is on the ice with you affects the +/- somewhat, but overall it still is a good guage over the longhaul on how you are doing.

    Nitrohockey Reply:

    @Donald_S, I think having Jones as a partner helped JJ’s bad +/- rating as well. Many times he got out of position or had to scramble back because he was covering for Jones. Add that to being young and learning defense at the NHL level and there you go. His rating got better when he was paired with Harrold. Too bad it didn’t happen more often. I hope we can see JJ and Green paired up during the upcoming tournament, could be interesting.

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  8. 5buckcolonnadeticket says:

    strong playoff performance raised him to a “C” for me.

    +/- counts. this is a defenseman who doesn’t defend. He’s like a high-scoring version of the other defenseman who’s last name starts with J. I’ve watched almost every single game this season and maybe I’m retreaded, I don’t get the whole Jack Johnson thing. DL should trade the hype.

    [Reply]

    neil Reply:

    @5buckcolonnadeticket, if you didnt know his name or background,he was pretty bad at the first half of the year….out of position,not hitting,not doing much of anything…..almost not playing hard all the time…with that said,the second half was different….playing with tude,hitting,playing hard every shift.So i gave him a C… F for the first half……….A for the second half..C for the season..

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  9. Schoeny says:

    B+

    He really stepped it up the last few months of the season. I really like him paired w/ DD on the PP. We need to lock down these two guys – they’re ultra competitive and are only going to get better. Jack may have more mental ghosts than DD, but he’s got the potential. Imagine him learning Drew’s hipcheck? Jack is as built like a tight end; he just needs to get confidence, comfort and timing down. I want him to stick around. There’s a lot of D in the system, but who knows if/when they’ll be ready.

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  10. McDonalds says:

    WOW! captain? That’s awesome for him. hopefully it doesn’t build his ego too much…

    [Reply]

    VanKingsFan Reply:

    @McDonalds, Too late for that … may as well make it bigger. PLaying with more and more confidence is probably good for him.

    [Reply]

  11. Schoeny says:

    ..and btw.. the way each guy should be ranked is by what was expected of them. Modin would get an A from me – he’s not an impact player, but he far surpassed what we expected and what we paid for him. Zeus should get an A+, Kopi should get a B (career year but he’s capable of 100 points) and Greene gets an A- if they had that as an option.

    [Reply]

  12. jammer06 says:

    Jacks +/- can largely be attributed to the fact that he doesn’t play well with partners. When he trusts his partner he seems to have the game figured out, when he doesn’t is where his game goes to pot. They need to find him his version of a SOD.

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  13. ducksuck says:

    wish somehow jack loved la like drew did then you can see those two playing for years and making la have 2 of the best defense men but jack is looking out for his future not a bad thing just wish he grew up as a kings fan:(

    [Reply]

    SDGolfer Reply:

    @ducksuck, Can you post a link to a story or an interview where he implies this?

    [Reply]

  14. Dominick says:

    B+ was a fair grade.He did have some lapses early,but look at how young he is.I new that the pro’s out weighed the cons,and it showed after the olympic break.Can’t wait till next season.

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  15. Hockeyfanb4Gretzky says:

    Just keep his dad out of the negotiations and we will sign him at at fair price.

    [Reply]

  16. john r says:

    I gave him a B. Sometimes there just seems to be something missing in his game. He looked better late in the season, and being paired with Dewey in the playoffs gives incredible hope for a top pair of D. If the progress continues an A is inevitable.

    [Reply]

  17. eyesk8r says:

    I think have Rob Blake around hurt Johnson’s development more than it helped. Jack has the tools to be another Blake, but i have a feeling Blake rubbed off on Jack in regards to contracts and negotiations…taught him how to be a greedy and selfish sob. I really hope that’s not the case.

    [Reply]

    HawKings Reply:

    @eyesk8r, I had that same concern, but more about his playing. DD had SOD and a mentor and JJ had RB. Which one would you want? I am not a RB hater but I still see RB as being a lot more selfish and a lot less willing to teach. SOD on the other hand seems to be the perfect mentor and while DD’s talent is evidence that he was going to be great, it likely happened a lot faster because of SOD.

    As for the greedy part, while it seemed that most expected greed to play into JJ’s last contract negotiations and there were a lot of rumors, I think most would now agree that it was just rumors and the reality of the situation was a fair agreement for both sides.

    [Reply]

    Harry Reply:

    @eyesk8r,

    Rob is a Flake like that!

    [Reply]

    vicarious Reply:

    @eyesk8r, Last negotiation Johnson took less money then he might have, factoring in that his 1st year he played only five games, then spent one year mostly hurt. He did not have to do that. Take less money I mean. If Johnson decides to leave the Kings, its probably not going to be about the $. His family is from the mid-west (so maybe they like it better back there). And playing for the losing kings could not have been much fun.

    Apparently his Dad at least, and JJ also it sounded like, were rubbed the wrong way by DL’s negative comments about Michigan, which Jack and his family love. Made Gann a known name b/c DL apparently thought Gann wouldn’t print what he said and we had a tempest in a teapot writ large. So maybe they’ll leave over that or similar sleights, real or imagined.

    Gave Johnson a B, and he definitely has a lot of upside.

    +/- is just another stat but bad breaks should even out on a team. IMO, johnson gambles a bit too much, which he could get away with at the college level owing to his wheels and game sense, but not so much against the NHL studs. Seems to me +/- is a stat worth looking at, when you compare players on the same team for sure. We were laughing a bit at some of the games as Johnson seemed like a goal magnet, one time the other team scored as just as he left the bench

    [Reply]

  18. KingMe20 says:

    In my opinion, he’s somewhere between a B and a B+. No player on the Kings improved more coming out of the Olympic break, and he showed that he has another level that he can reach during the playoffs, and I think he’ll be better next year. Johnson’s potential is really high, and I hope Terry Murray has learned that he deserves to be on the #1 power play in place of Jarret Stoll.

    Two areas that I see he can improve:

    1) Be more physical: I’d like to see Jack develop a hitting game. He’s big enough to knock people over, and a guy who can skate as well as he can should work on having the upper body strength to match the strength in his lower body.

    2) Smarter defensive coverage: He reminds me a lot of Rob Blake’s early days in this area, who had a tendency to make some really boneheaded plays (passes up the middle of his own zone, etc). He makes a lot of easy-to-fix mistakes. Some time in the video room this summer would really serve him well, and I think if he commits to that part of his game, that +/- problem will soon be a memory.

    Rich is right. We have to remember that Jack is only 23. He has All-Star potential, and is as athletic a defensemen as the Kings have ever had. He may never get to Doughty’s level, but he can get close with proper attention to details.

    [Reply]

    variable Reply:

    @KingMe20,

    great post…:)

    [Reply]

  19. HawKings says:

    For me, he started out at a C to C+ but ended at a B+. Glad to hear that he was chosen as Captain of Team USA, especially given how much he is into playing for his Country. A great honor and it means that his talents are being recognized by others in the world of Hockey. My hope is that he gets signed long term, maybe not for DD $ and term but probably not too far off. VanKingsFan is absolutely correct about having DD and JJ on the same team. It is good being a Kings fan when you realize how young our stars/stars to be are.

    [Reply]

  20. Michael J. says:

    B. Rich’s critique of JJ is spot-on. Jack has room to imporve on the back end and I expect that his scoring will only increase also. It looks like his defensive responsibilities improved much this year. The +/- thing does reflect the player’s overall performance to a degree. His second half was much better than his first half.

    I would love to see him stay in LA for say… 15 years, but I don’t see it happening. If DL can lock him up with a five year deal I would be surprised. I would love to see him live up to the hype in a Kings uniform.

    [Reply]

  21. Jammers says:

    JMFJ is my favorite Kings player by far. I love his cockiness, his attitude, and his crazy slapshot. I know DD gets most of the attention from the media, but JMFJ really can be one of the greats if he wants to.

    I know JMFJ is from Michigan and probably wants to play for the Red Wings, and I don’t blame him, but I hope he chooses to stay here. He can be a superstar and LA fans need that.

    [Reply]

  22. luke20 says:

    Congrats Jack! Wow, didn’t see this coming, but it should propel him another step forward. He’s made some great strides this year and is becoming the player everyone thought he would be. B+ slow start, strong finish

    [Reply]

  23. Hosser says:

    Watching the monarchs game. 1-0 for the good guys after one. Looking pretty good, end to end action. Holloway scored from gautier and zieller and could have had a couple more. Moller also looks dangerous out there.

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  24. Zee says:

    Does anyone else get the feeling that Brian Burke is courting Jack?.. Since the Olympics and the 2 of them spending a lot of quality time together through now.. where Burke names him Captain.. seems like he has an eye out for Jack.. just saying.. might be something to consider?

    [Reply]

    -J Reply:

    @Zee,

    Nope, not really. Are you aware that DL is also working with team USA? I also don’t know how much Burke has say over who is captain- that’s usually the coaches’ decision.

    [Reply]

  25. YogaPhart says:

    What has impressed me most about JJ were his comments after the playoffs. I’m sure nobody in the locker room was happy with the thought of losing, but JJ seemed almost agitated. Gotta love the attitude.

    [Reply]

  26. luc20rules says:

    I feel that Jack did improve this year and is on the normal pace for a star NHL D-man. I think he will get there, but I graded him as a B for the above reasons even though I thought he has yet to reach his potential as an elite NHL D-man. I hope DL signs him long term after next year even if he doesn’t develop quickly, because with JJ you know its just a matter of time until he is a Franchise type D-man. We have judged him over harshly in the past as we have been spoiled by the Norris level of play from Doughty the second he suited up as a rookie. Most elite NHL D-men are a liability until they are 2 years in, and steady to good for another 3 then start playing there full potential around year 6.

    [Reply]

  27. edwood2 says:

    With JJ and DD on D, JQ and JB in net, I can’t believe that any team has had four players of this calibre defending their end, who are all under 25. You can have your high priced snipers, this is the core around which to build.

    [Reply]

  28. brian says:

    i have watched jj since day 1 with the kings and he has improved very little.during this season every partner he has been paired with has struggled to play with him.he has needs to improve his game a lot in order to be an elite dman in the nhl

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  29. luc20rules says:

    Monarchs Win, Monarchs Win!
    They now lead the series 3-2 verse the Worchestor Sharks.
    Bernier of course with a shutout.
    Monarchs 1-0 win.

    [Reply]

    holly Reply:

    @luc20rules, Bud Holloway with his record tying 6th game winner. He also set up the goal that was the game winner in the game he didn’t have the gwg.

    [Reply]

    bbb7 Reply:

    @holly, Yeah, he’s unconscious with the gwgs. Amazing!

    [Reply]

  30. luc20rules says:

    Rich, any chance there may be a Watch Party for the Monarchs if they make it to the Finals?

    [Reply]

  31. I am so proud of the Monarchs!

    After the tough loss last weekend, where caution ruled in the third period resulting in only two shots, to go to Worcester and win in a shutout is quite the achievement!

    Win or lose, to get to the Cup Finals would be FANTASTIC! Hershey will be difficult for either team to beat…

    –GO MONARCHS!–

    [Reply]

    luc20rules Reply:

    @BakoCAkingsCondorsGuy, I agree, with Hershey’s last game on 4/29 after sweeping Albany. I am hoping Manchester can steal game 1 as Hershey should be rusty after about 10 days of just practice. I think that will game 1 will determine if Manchester will have a chance to win the series.

    [Reply]

  32. It appeared to me that Johnson improved near the end of the regular season and especially in the playoffs. I keep forgetting the guy is only 23. He does make mistakes, and could be more physical, but overall he has the makings of a top defensemen in this league.

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  33. Steve S. says:

    Gave him a B. I think he is capable of elevating his game further. Has tremendous potential, and I think he will get better.

    [Reply]

  34. Moondoggie says:

    B+….

    JMFJ has always been a monster on the blueline but errors definitely hurt his play. Since the Olympics we’ve seen a completely different JMFJ. Gone were the bad passes and blown coverages in the Kings end. He became a master on the PP with Dewey and against Vancouver he was the 2nd best defenseman on the ice for either team.

    I’d like to see JMFJ & Dewey signed for years with the Kings. It would be like the Ducks having Neidermeyer and Pronger, talk about bookends! And the dividend would probably result in a Stanley Cup for LA with it’s homegrown defensive corps and goaltending.

    [Reply]

    puck73 Reply:

    @Moondoggie, I agree with you that since the olympics his improvement has been noticable. Plus, most players who are drafted at 18 dont come into their own usually until between 24 and 27 so from that stand point JJ could very well be right on schedule. Looking back, I think if we had more depth at the time I think DL would have sent JJ to Manchester so he could be trained properly and be better prepared to play against grown men. Anyway after his performance in the playoffs I think everything is gonna turn out fine !

    [Reply]

  35. Marc says:

    I gave him a B+. After Richardson he’s made the greatest improvement of any King player from last year to this year. I think he gets unfairly criticized for not being as good as Doughty. But let’s not forget how freakishly amazing Doughty is & comparing anyone to him is unfair.

    [Reply]

  36. Joel says:

    I would say it was a solid finish for a player who has just completed his second full NHL season. I hope he’s around for a while, because his decision-making is improving.

    [Reply]

  37. Marc Nathan says:

    The +/- absolutely means something over the course of the season, however over the course of this season Jack Johnson went from JWTFJ, to JMFJ (Jack Minus FOREVER Johnson) to just Jack Johnson, solid NHL defenseman with huge offensive upside.

    He’s still a bit of an adventure on the defensive side of the puck, but I’m far less prone to singing “If I Only Had A Brain” every time he skated back to the bench following the opposition’s scoring.

    I will say that the idiots who wear JMFJ and JMFJOHNSON jerseys could have spent their money better. That’s just stupid :-)

    [Reply]

    puck73 Reply:

    @Marc Nathan, ..Agreed. I blame the Kings marketing department partially for that as well. JJ is gonna be a great d man in this league in the next 1 to 4 seasons guaranteed , he has too much world class talent not to be. And for sure, it is not fair to compare him to Doughty. Only 1 other d man at 18 came in and dominated at 18 besides Drew and that was Larry Murphy, and we all know what became of him..Stanley Cup Champion, and a hall of Famer, and the same thing will happen to Drew !

    [Reply]

  38. nykingfan says:

    B+

    JJ is well on his way to becoming an elite NHL defenseman..he just needs to take that next step up, but each year he continues to improve.
    He’s not far off.

    [Reply]

  39. Rudedogg says:

    Love the guy and I know he is young for a defenseman but how come we have to wait til a World Hockey Tournament or the Olympic’s to see this kid rise to the occassion. I’m just hoping we arent talking about him in 3-4 years like people talk about Frolov on this board… Dominates when he wants too. Im really hoping i can wear his jersey with pride!!!

    [Reply]

  40. KPDragon1187 says:

    I was very happy to see that Jack wasn’t at the bottom of the +/- in the playoffs. That’s the part of his game that he needs to elevate the most in my opinion

    [Reply]

  41. Cristobal says:

    I gave a B.
    Funny, because I’ve been with the majority on everyone but Doughty, who I gave a B+.
    Jack is being held back, reined in. At the Olympics he was loosened and we saw what he really is.
    Oddly, I actually think it is Doughty who makes more blatant defensive errors.
    One was paired with Scuderi most of the season, one was paired mostly with Jones.
    All in all, I’m high on both these kids.
    Doughty and Johnson should play together more.

    Plus/Minus is a horrible stat.
    Last night Montreal lost 0-2 on a PP goal and an empty netter.
    6 Montreal players ended the game minus because they were on the ice when the empty netter was scored!
    How does that make any sense?
    Pure Bollocks!

    [Reply]

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