An interesting development yesterday, as the Kings actually moved back into fourth place in the Western Conference without playing a game. It’s been that kind of week…
San Jose 3, Chicago 2: LOSS. The Sharks pulled four points clear of the Kings, and now each team has played 37 games.
Anaheim 4, Colorado 2: LOSS. The Ducks are still 10 points behind the Kings, with one game in hand. The Avalanche is one point ahead of the Kings in the conference standings, and the Kings now have two games in hand over Colorado.
Vancouver 4, Nashville 1: WIN. Here’s the kicker. Because the Predators lost, the Kings and Predators both have 47 points in 37 games. They also each have 22 wins. The complicated third tie gets thrown out until the teams have played a team in Nashville, so it goes to goal difference. The Kings are plus-3 while Nashville is plus-2. So the Kings go back into fourth place.
That puts the Kings’ “break record,” in my estimation, at 9-8. Tonight’s games are Edmonton at Minnesota, Chicago at Detroit, Columbus at Dallas, Anaheim at Phoenix, St. Louis at Calgary. Kings rooting interests, in my opinion, are Edmonton, Chicago, Columbus, Anaheim and St. Louis.
If the Ducks beat Phoenix, even in overtime or a shootout, the Kings will come back from their break in fourth place in the Western Conference, albeit in a very tight race.
Awesome updates Rich, Once again we thank you….
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Amazingly, still no “three-point” games, which has been a blessing for the Kings. No points were “manufactured” by the odd overtime scoring that some think will make it a requirement to score 100 points to make the playoffs this year. Because no three-point games were played (so far–we’ll see about tonight), the Kings were able to “hang in there” while not playing. That’s truly a Christmas miracle (of minor proportions, obviously) in my opinion.
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I completely disagree with calling the Chicago loss to San Jose a bad thing for the Kings.
1. Win the conference, and the division is an afterthought.
2. Chicago has games in hand against us, San Jose is equal in games with fewer wins so we would win a tie-breaker against San Jose.
3. We will play San Jose 3 more times with 2 at home, we will play Chicago two more times with one at home, we control our own destiny against San Jose much more easily.
4. Chicago is clearly the main opposition to win the Western conference. Having home ice in a 7 game series is vital against either of the two, San Jose or Chicago, but in my mind Chicago and their crowd/atmosphere are harder to face than San Jose’s.
5. Basic theory of game-strategy: Hope those below you fight each other to a draw and neither makes significant improvement, so root for whichever is the lower team at any time to win. Hope for the teams above you to do the same, but root for the team that is most ahead of you to lose.
6. Limiting our season’s goal to just a division winner is needlessly pessimistic, and unjustified given our performance for the second quarter of this season while having the injuries we will no longer have going forward.
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seems to me the Ducks game was really a “win” because it keeps Colorado down while Anaheim is still a ways back from the pack.
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I have to say I agree with those preferring the teams behind the Kings beat the teams ahead of them. I expect the Kings to battle for the top spots, not the bottom spots.
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Ya as much as I hate the Ducks, I agree that their win over the Avalanche was a win for the Kings. First of all the Ducks are so far back that they don’t pose a real threat now. Secondly I do not want to see the Ducks offload some of their veterans like Neidermeyer, Selanne, Koivu, etc. to playoff rivals. See the Matthew Berry post on this topic http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=25067&blogger_id=125
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Player X -
Yes, totally.
Although I do always enjoy a San Jose loss, a Chicago loss in regulation is also good. However, when looking my favorite site that runs realtime updated computer simulations of the rest of the season (which run 10,000,000 simulated seasons with today’s standings as a starting point), the outcome of last night’s San Jose/Chicago game has effectively zero impact either way on the Kings playoff chances. The Colorado loss, meanwhile, increases our chances of making the playoffs by 3/10 of a percent. Vancouver winning decreases our odds by 1/10 of a percent (but I still like that outcome, because I want Nashville to lose, too). Overall, the Kings odds of making the playoffs stands at 78.1%.
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dominic –
I think you’re right. Actually, sportsclubstats has done the math: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western/Pacific/Kings.html
Rich, you might want to check that site out. It could save you a little bit of work.
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Jeff -
Yes, that’s the site I was referring to. It does take a bit of decoding though, and it’s non-denominational, so it doesn’t take into account psychological effects, like hatred of Anaheim and/or San Jose. But I love that site, especially the tallying of the different outcomes.
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I agree with those folks saying the Fish’ and Quacks’ wins were beneficial to the Kings. Sorry, Rich, but you’re dead wrong on these two. In a conference-based playoff scheme it’s just as important to stay close to the Avs and Hawks as it is the Fish and Quacks. Even though the Kings have games in hand on Colorado it’s best that the Kings be able to catch and pass them with their games in hand and that is easier if the Avs are closer. The Quacks still have an awful long way to go to catch the Kings, even with their games in hand, so that win is insignificant at this point. As for the Hawks, it is a defeatist attitude to suggest that the Kings don’t have any hope of winning the conference, and we don’t need that kind of attitude here anymore. Since the Sharks and Hawks are considered about equal favorites to win the conference it didn’t really matter who won except that the Hawks continue to have games in hand so it was actually to the Kings’ advantage to have them lose and remain closer.
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Since the Kings last played, their playoff chances have gone from 75.22% to 78.06%.
Just shows that games in hand are not as important as people think, you still need to win as many games as possible and not care how many you have played.
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It’s fun to scoreboard watch,but the bottom line is if we just win where we’re supposed to the universe tends to unfold as it should.
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what? am I still drunk from last night? We moved up without playing? Sweet!!!
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I don’t care what impact it has on the standings, I will never ever ever want the Ducks to win.
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Colin, big picture. Sometimes the “SUX” winning is the best thing. But only when they are playing so bad they are as far back as they are. And as they face the ‘yotes tonight (who are 1 point behind us) today is one of those times!
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